Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Today

After we experienced a nice couple of days with showers and occasional storms mixed in with sunshine. We now are under the gun for severe weather once again, thank's to another trough of low pressure that is moving across the prairies.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Jul 13/14

A decent severe weather setup is in play today, with all of the conditions present and ready to go. Brad from A Weather Moment Quotes  "In the warm sector of this system ample daytime heating combined with increasing low-level moisture and gradual destabilization of the mid-to-upper-levels will work in tandem to produce MLCAPES of nearly 2000J/kg. The strong upper-level jets -- nearly 60kt at 500mb and over 100kt at 250mb will provide ample upper-level support for severe thunderstorms and, when combined with the surface flow and increasing 850mb LLJ in the late afternoon and evening, will produce 0-500mb bulk shear values of nearly 50-60kt." As a result there will be the likelihood for tornado producing supercells in areas of Southwestern Manitoba, bringing along with them the threats for large hail (Baseball size possibly) damaging winds, and deadly lightning. Areas under the gun include (Melita/Boissevain/Turtle Mountain Provincial Park/Virden/Souris/Western Parts of Killarney/Pilot Mound/Manitou and Brandon/Carberry/Treherene). Any storms that do produce tornadoes will likely give off weak to moderate tornadoes, however there is no way of telling the EF rating until damage is done. Folk's living in the threat area need to stay aware of changing and adverse weather condition's do get to safety if you see any green skies and or a funnel cloud/tornado! Don't wait for warnings to be issued, your window to the sky should be your warning. After the peak tornado timeframe ends (about 7pm) any activity should be able to merge together into a decent line of severe storms and travel eastwards through the evening hours. They will either weaken or maintain there strength as they move on eastwards into the Red River valley late evening or after midnight. That is why I have posted a slight risk for severe weather through and after the 12am period in the rest of Southern Manitoba. Things will calm down Sunday with sunshine and warmer weather, but not until we get through a few rough patches first.

Another chance at showers or thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday to start the week. Have a good time enjoying the storms!