A Enhanced risk for severe storms is possible in the Red River Valley with a surrounding slight risk area. A already hot and humid airmass is in place for the remainder of the day today and this evening. A potent cold front will go through Southern Manitoba tonight while stalling out over the Red River valley this evening and overnight. The moisture ahead of this front with dewpoints in the mid to high teens, MLCAPES from 1,000 to 2,000 and MUCAPES 1,500 to 2,500, Lifted Indicies of -4 to -8 and bulk shear of 30 to 45knots will result in potentially severe storms. Supercell storms will begin to develop in the western slight risk area around early evening moving east into the enhanced risk area, after suppertime then they will move northnortheast and build into a squall line (multicell thunderstorms) training along the cold front as they lift NNEwards. As the storm motion will be slow and storms will train along the front in the Red River Valley flooding will be possible along with the potential for golf ball to tea cup size hail, (as forecast by Skew T graphs) winds in excess of 70km/h and frequent dangerous lightning thus a enhanced risk is favoured for areas of the Red River Valley. The storms will gradually move east into Eastern Manitoba overnight and should weaken gradually as less favourable severe parameters are in place there. A more significant rainfall will be in play the day Sunday into Monday with rainfall amounts as high as 75mm. Will update later on that situation.
