Showers and Thunderstorms, some severe to occur this evening into Thursday Morning.

Southern Manitoba will be impacted by a incoming northward moving warm front that will put the city of Winnipeg and much of the Red River Valley at risk of Thunderstorms some severe through the Red River Valley and into NW Ontario. As MUCAPES exceed 1,000 J/Kg, and Lifted Indicies reach -5 to -7. Severe thunderstorm occurence is not out of the question, with these thunderstorms that occur overnight. Tornado potential is there albeit a slight risk as shear Helicity readings are about 600 to 700,, around  around 10pm-4am potential in the Red River Valley is there for Violent Tornadoes. As far everything else is concerned this system will have a potential threat for very heavy amounts of rainfall and wind gusts over 90km/h at times. Intense lightning will also accompany these thunderstorms as well. Full discussion from environment Canada below,. 

083   

FOCN45 CWWG 121900  

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM  

PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT WEDNESDAY  

SEPTEMBER 12 2018.  

EASTERN PRAIRIES...JET SUPPORTED CONVECTION SOUTHWESTERN SK TODAY  

WITH 10 TO 20 MM POSSIBLE AND RISK OF THUNDER. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY  

EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MB BUT WHETHER OR NOT THIS BECOMES REALIZED IN  

A BIG WAY IS QUESTIONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT, HOWEVER, A WARM FRONT  

REBOUNDING THRU THE DAKOTAS WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJ SUGGESTS  

POTENTIALLY SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING THIS EVENING  

ALONG A LINE BRANDON-VICTORIA BEACH WITH THE LINE TRANSLATING  

EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT. TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD GIVE OVER  

50 MM OF RAIN, BUT LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE  

• LINE BECOMES PROGRESSIVE TOWARDS THUSDAY MORNING.  
  

Severe weather likely for the night ahead..

Update for Southern Manitoba

Area(s): Southern and Central

 

Timing: Monday evening and overnight

Threats: 3-5 cm hail and wind gusts 100-120 km/h over the southeast, 2-3 cm hail, 90-100 km/h wind gusts over south central; locally heavy downpours, gusty winds and pea sized hail elsewhere

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the evening hours along a trough of low pressure over Western Manitoba and push eastwards across Central and Southern Manitoba during the late evening and overnight hours. Thunderstorms will initially have the potential to produce 3-5 cm hail and 100-120 km/h wind gusts over southwestern areas. A moderate threat of severe thunderstorms will continue to exist as these thunderstorms push eastward into the Interlake and Red River Valley. The thunderstorms are expected to weaken overnight as they move into southeastern areas. Elsewhere, non-severe thunderstorms will be possible giving locally heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail.

Update: Showers and Thunderstorms expected to impact a large part of Southern Manitoba tonight.

Southern Manitoba is expected to be impacted by copious amounts of rainfall over the next several hours as showers and thunderstorms continue to blossom over a large part of the northern North Dakota’s. 

As these thunderstorms move into a cooler airmass further north, odds are that they may weaken a bit more as MUCapes are only in the 800-1,200J/Kg range anywhere north of Highway 3 and north of Emerson. Better dynamics for severe weather are further south, where MUCAPES are in the 3,000 J/Kg range. Lifted indices and general Instability is lacking albeit moisture is sufficient for copious amounts of rain (PWATS near 40mm) can be expected to fall with dew points in the mid teens and temperatures only a few degrees above the dew pointin much of southern Manitoba, Shear is not even slightly a concern as storms for tonight are not surface based. Tornadoes won’t be a concern from this system. With a warm front parked over southern Manitoba and temperatures remaining quite cooler than average thunderstorms will likely be a issue tonight. What all this means is that strong to possibly severe thunderstorms can be expected throughout the night providing heavy rainfall, small hail and wind gusts possibly over 80km/h, especially in areas along the Canada USA border. Heavy rain is more likely over areas further north, which looks like it should provide sufficient drought relief. 

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the morning timeframe with showers continuing into the afternoon and evening tomorrow. In all 15 to 30mm can be expected with higher amounts in thunderstorms. 

Enjoy the rain!!!

-Mike

Severe weather threat through the weekend, more seasonable weather for the week.

e Southern Manitoba will be impacted by a sultry hot-humid airmass that will allow for humidex readings in the low to mid 40’s all a result of a low pressure system, impacting the area into Saturday evening. Ample amounts of instability will be available for storms to form and sustain themselves this evening, warnings are already in place for much of the inter lake region as storms dive southeast.  Most of the abundant areas of energy with CAPE values exceeding 2,000 J/Kg-3000J/Kg max will be situated from the parklands south east into the Red River Valley on into Northwestern Ontario. Shear will be more directional towards tthe parklands and into the inter lakes with bulk shear into the 50 knots range. Shear is less as you go further south into the Red River Valley with still at least 30-40 knots, With ample amounts of instability in place. As the trough line moves through there is a possibility of storms to develop in the Red River Valley ahead of the main batch of storms  in the inter lake, if they do they will be explosive as the cap has held back storm development so far today. As the evening goes on expect storms to travel south eastwards and eventually impact the city of Winnipeg and eastern portions of southern Manitoba. The risk for Hail possibly as big as golf balls will persist through the evening as storms have the history of producing hail that size in the northern inter lake. Considering there is a chance of storms becoming weaker as they encounter capping the risk of severe weather would decrease, that’s why we’ll have to monitor storms to see  how they react to the warmer air in upper levels. If not then the same risk would apply for large hail up to golf ball size, flooding rains with 50mm in some areas, dangerous cloud to ground lightning, and winds in excess of 90km/h. Storms should clear by late evening, more thunderstorms are expected to travel into southern Manitoba from North Dakota overnight with the best risk to the east in the white shell. Temperatures should only drop into the low 20’s and high teens tonight so not much in the way of cooling expected. I will have a update on tomorrow’s weather in the morning, more storms likely in the afternoon with the Red River valley with the best chance. 

Fall like weather to be booted out by hot and humid summer like conditions that will return midweek.

Southern Manitoba is continuing to be affected by fall like weather that has dropped our temperatures well below average for this time of year. All thanks to a stubborn cold low and trough that has made a impact 

Severe weather threat to end the heat and humidity. Cooler weather on the way for early week.

Heat and humidity continue to affect a large portion of southern Manitoba including the city of Winnipeg, as a result a heat warning is in place for a large portion of southern Manitoba. A cold front is expected to slice into this heat and humidity and provide relief, but not before storms. 

A heat warning is in place for the large majority of southern Manitoba and into NW Ontario please take as many precautions as you can to make sure you stay as cool as possible, drink water, stay in the shade and wear light clothing. Areas of western Manitoba to the Ontario border are also in a severe thunderstorm watch. There is a high concern though as we get into the late afternoon towards the evening within the next hour, severe thunderstorm development is likely as a cold front slides into the hot and humid airmass. CAPE values in excess  of 2,000-3,000 J/Kg, LI’s of -5 to -9 will make for explosive thunderstorm development with dewpoints between 17 and 21C sufficient moisture should be there to sustain storms as they continue to form. Shear will be a concern with shear in the order of 40knots, and veering in some areas with wind from the east there is a chance for storms with tornadoes. The trigger will finally be the cold front that will be moving into the soupy environment. 

As a result expect severe thunderstorm development to continue as the front slices into the hot and humid airmass, super cells are likely in initial stages of development there will be a risk of heavy rain, wind gusts up to 120km/h, , hail up to golf ball or baseball sized hail. There is a risk of tornadoes as these storms move east into the Red River Valley, there is a chance Winnipeg may be affected by these supercellular storms as well. I will monitor this as the evening goes on. Once storms organize (depending on how Far East before they line out) expect a squall line with multiple bowing segments to move east into the eastern portions of southern Manitoba. Wind gusts over 100km/h, hail up to golf balls and torrential rains will be possible. Once the cold front moves east into Ontario, cooler calmer conditions will set in with a nice NW Flow. 

Cooler and more seasonal temperatures will take over for the beginning of the week with highs in the low to mid 20’s. Rain and storm chances return late week. Enjoy the cooler weather when it comes! -Mike

Significant heat and severe weather on the way Today.

Significant high temperatures and humidex readings will be continuing to effect a large portion of southern Manitoba through the day Saturday and into early Sunday. A cold front sliding into the airmass could make for volatile weather that will flush out the heat and humidity. 

03Z HRRR showing the High humidex readings for much of southern Manitoba and the eastern Prairies. (Dew point and Temperature combined, to create feel like temperatures).

Southern Manitoba is in for a interesting day Saturday heat and humidity will continue to build into the region ahead of a cold front that will be entering areas of the Red River Valley in the evening. Heat warnings are in effect for a large portion of southern Manitoba as the hot and humid airmass is in place. Temperatures in the mid 30’s with dewpoints in the mid 20’s are making humidex readings feel close to the mid 40’s. People are advised to stay inside and keep as cool as possible, if you are to go outside please stay as hydrated and seek shade as much as possible!! The vulnerable including the elderly, children and homeless people are advised to take extra precautions to avoid heat stroke. A cold front will be going through this hot and humid air mass this evening and with it significant severe weather is possible. Looking at the severe weather indicies the moisture we have dewpoints in the low to mid 20’s, Humidex readings in the low 40’s. CAPE of 3,000 to 6,000 J/Kg, Lifted index’s of -9 to -12, and shear on the order of 10 to 40 Knots. The trigger this evening will be the cold front moving east across the Red River Valley into Southeastern Manitoba. There is a weak cap in place this evening in southeastern portions of Manitoba and as the cold front moves east the cap is expected to weaken. Severe thunderstorm development may occur east of the city of Winnipeg this evening if the front moves east fast enough, also depending on the cap. Considering most models will have the cap eroding around 21z (4pm-7pm) in the Red River Valley and east supercell storms may have a window to form within that timeframe. However most models show storms not developing until the front gets to the southeastern portion of Manitoba into NW Ontario by 8pm. Regardless once storms form they will pose a significant risk of becoming supercellular with gusts over 120km/h, Heavy rainfall over 50mm an hour, hail up to the size of golf balls or larger, and potential tornadoes. I’ll continue to update this as needed, in the comments below, on Twitter and Manitoba Weather Centre.

Cooler conditions will arrive for the day tomorrow with temperatures in the mid to high 20’s and humidex readings in the mid 30’s should be with us until mid week, chances at showers and thunderstorms return mid week into late week for us. Stay cool and stay sky aware!

Blog post on Heat and severe weather on the way later today

A heat wave will be coming to Southern Manitoba for the end of the week and severe weather threat  will be arriving on the day Saturday. Heat and Humidity levels will start increasing and humidex readings could be in the mid to high 40’s near 50C. will All forms of severe weather will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening, including Tornadoes, risk area at this moment appears to be the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. I will update you more tomorrow.

Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms to Start the week, moderating and calmer weather later week.

Southern Manitoba will be in for some fairly unsettled weather early this week as a area of low pressure travels over the northern plains, before a area of high pressure settles in for the end of the week.

The day for Tuesday will start off with some remnant cloud cover in southern Manitoba if any thunderstorms in western Manitoba from Saskatchewan overnight makes it into the area, if not partly cloudy to clear skies can be expected. As the day progresses the winds will start to shift from the North to the south and southwest, Moisture: dewpoint temperatures will not increase that much in our area as most of the available gulf moisture moves into North Dakota and far eastern states. Temperatures for the day Tuesday will get into the mid twenties, possibility that the humidex readings along the United states border get into the 30 to 35C, areas further north may be in for only 25 to 30C humidex readings.

As we get into the evening period, a approaching cold front and trowel will slowly move east into areas of central southern Manitoba and much of North Dakota. Looking at the instability with the associated frontal system coming in to a fairly unstable airmass, CAPE values should be in the 500 to 1,000 J/Kg range with lifted index’s ranging from -3 to -5 across a large portion of the southern Half of the province will be sufficient enough to produce thunderstorms that may just approach severe limits for a short time, sub severe to non severe thunderstorms can be expected through the evening and overnight. However given there is a significant amount more of Instability and Shear towards North Dakota there is a higher likelihood of severe weather south of the border. A meso cake (mesoscale convective complex) may occur in Northern Portions of North Dakota tomorrow and if anything develops on the northern fringe of that there is a chance that the southern Red River Valley could be clipped. Potential for thunderstorms in the non severe category could occur further north in n the Winnipeg and northern red River valley areas. Follow in the comments section for potential changes in this outlook!! The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into early Wednesday morning.

Clearing and warmer, stable weather will arrive for the day Thursday as a ridge of high pressure moves into Northern areas of Manitoba, temperatures will remain in the mid to high 20’s under a north to westerly flow. Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms will arrive again at the end of the week through the weekend and into early next week.

Heat and Humidity to Spark Severe Weather, Calmer more seasonal weather midweek.

Significant severe weather is expected to occur, over the coming hours as a warm front drives north out of North Dakota. A trough is also expected to stall over the interlakes region overnight, that will enhance thunderstorm probability from the inter lakes south into areas along and south of the international border.

A moderate risk of severe weather is on tap for all of southern Manitoba over the coming hours, as a frontal wave moves into a warm and unstable airmass, thunderstorms have already started to occur over portions of southwestern Manitoba, with a few storm cells ongoing in the Red River Valley. 

 The ingredients we have for severe Weather tonight (MIST Principle from A Weather Moment)
Moisture- With Dewpoints in the 70's (mid twenties) significant moisture of is available for storms to develop, and drop significant amounts of rainfall over a short period of time when training thunderstorms occur.,
Instability: Instability is there for explosive storm development with CAPES in excess of 2,000 to 3,000 J/Kg, lifted indicies of -6 to -10 , along with Sweat indicies between 300 to 400 will contribute to severe thunderstorm development throughout the night in much of southern Manitoba.
Shear: Shear is lacking a cross a large portion of the province, Storm Relative Helicity is on the order of 200 to 500 m2s2 possibly may contribute to storm organization but shear and significant tornado parameters are too low for tornadoes for the night ahead.
Trigger: Warm front along with a associated trough will provide for a large area of lift throughout the southern part of Manitoba, main area of focus will be along and south of the trans Canada highway including areas of the Inter lakes. 

As a result we expect thunderstorms to continue to form west to east along a warm front, potential for more potent storms to develop, once that occurs later this evening the possibility of a squall line or something down the lines of a multicell convective complex. Large hail up to golf ball size hail, winds in excess of 100 km/h, rainfall amounts of 50mm are possible, along with Frequent Dangerous lightning. Storm threat expected to ease into the overnight period. 

Hello everyone I am back in business and I am out of my depression, spring is Here!! Warmer temperatures are gradually on the way, thanks to a pattern change. 😊😊😊.

Hello everyone I know it’s been a long time since I last put a post up on here. I have been struggling with major depression this past winter and I am greatful that with the weather warming up I can get out and do more and feel better overall. There will be posts whenever weather conditions change or things get interesting. 

Despite it being extremely below normal so far temperature wise this April the normal temperatures are getting into the double digits , we are still lucky to get in the single digit values. His trend is not expected to last much longer. The weather conditions over the next few days will be quite pleasant with no low pressure systems forecast to affect the region through the weekend into early next week. A area of high pressure moving off to the east, once that system moves off to the east it will allow for warmer air to surge in from the pacific. 

Temperatures over the next several days will be gradually warming up as the winds switch to the west-southwest . I expect our daytime high temperatures to start getting into the mid to high single digits as we get into mid week For Friday temperatures from 0 to 5C will be expected,, Saturday expecting highs between 3 and 7 C , Sunday will be in the 2 to 7C range across the south. As for Monday high temperatures will be anywhere from 5 to 10C. 

 With temperatures that high it will put a significant dent in the snow pack. Barely if any snow will be left by the end of the week, once the snow melts and the ground unfreezes it should allow for our temperatures to rise into the double digits and possibly into the low 20s. Until then enjoy the return of spring!!! 

Weekly CFSV2 500mb outlook and Temperature outlook, 3 weeks in advance. (Special Treat). 

Temperature Outlook...