Severe weather threat through the weekend, more seasonable weather for the week.

e Southern Manitoba will be impacted by a sultry hot-humid airmass that will allow for humidex readings in the low to mid 40’s all a result of a low pressure system, impacting the area into Saturday evening. Ample amounts of instability will be available for storms to form and sustain themselves this evening, warnings are already in place for much of the inter lake region as storms dive southeast.  Most of the abundant areas of energy with CAPE values exceeding 2,000 J/Kg-3000J/Kg max will be situated from the parklands south east into the Red River Valley on into Northwestern Ontario. Shear will be more directional towards tthe parklands and into the inter lakes with bulk shear into the 50 knots range. Shear is less as you go further south into the Red River Valley with still at least 30-40 knots, With ample amounts of instability in place. As the trough line moves through there is a possibility of storms to develop in the Red River Valley ahead of the main batch of storms  in the inter lake, if they do they will be explosive as the cap has held back storm development so far today. As the evening goes on expect storms to travel south eastwards and eventually impact the city of Winnipeg and eastern portions of southern Manitoba. The risk for Hail possibly as big as golf balls will persist through the evening as storms have the history of producing hail that size in the northern inter lake. Considering there is a chance of storms becoming weaker as they encounter capping the risk of severe weather would decrease, that’s why we’ll have to monitor storms to see  how they react to the warmer air in upper levels. If not then the same risk would apply for large hail up to golf ball size, flooding rains with 50mm in some areas, dangerous cloud to ground lightning, and winds in excess of 90km/h. Storms should clear by late evening, more thunderstorms are expected to travel into southern Manitoba from North Dakota overnight with the best risk to the east in the white shell. Temperatures should only drop into the low 20’s and high teens tonight so not much in the way of cooling expected. I will have a update on tomorrow’s weather in the morning, more storms likely in the afternoon with the Red River valley with the best chance.