Update: Showers and Thunderstorms expected to impact a large part of Southern Manitoba tonight.

Southern Manitoba is expected to be impacted by copious amounts of rainfall over the next several hours as showers and thunderstorms continue to blossom over a large part of the northern North Dakota’s. 

As these thunderstorms move into a cooler airmass further north, odds are that they may weaken a bit more as MUCapes are only in the 800-1,200J/Kg range anywhere north of Highway 3 and north of Emerson. Better dynamics for severe weather are further south, where MUCAPES are in the 3,000 J/Kg range. Lifted indices and general Instability is lacking albeit moisture is sufficient for copious amounts of rain (PWATS near 40mm) can be expected to fall with dew points in the mid teens and temperatures only a few degrees above the dew pointin much of southern Manitoba, Shear is not even slightly a concern as storms for tonight are not surface based. Tornadoes won’t be a concern from this system. With a warm front parked over southern Manitoba and temperatures remaining quite cooler than average thunderstorms will likely be a issue tonight. What all this means is that strong to possibly severe thunderstorms can be expected throughout the night providing heavy rainfall, small hail and wind gusts possibly over 80km/h, especially in areas along the Canada USA border. Heavy rain is more likely over areas further north, which looks like it should provide sufficient drought relief. 

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the morning timeframe with showers continuing into the afternoon and evening tomorrow. In all 15 to 30mm can be expected with higher amounts in thunderstorms. 

Enjoy the rain!!!

-Mike