Seasonable Temperatures with Well needed Moisture On the way for the weekend!

Well it looks like the weekend is here , I mean just one more day away. Friday (Who would have known Friday would start with the food name for Fries??) Anyways, it looks like we are entering into a cooler and slightly unsettled pattern this weekend thanks to a small ridge moving through our area and another area of low pressure to end the weekend. Let’s have a look to see what that means for us ...

(Above: Looking at the precipitation for the day Sunday , we could see amounts from 30-50+mm as showers and thunderstorms look to impact the region , areas out by extreme NE Manitoba may see amounts closer to 50-75mm. )

Friday: will be one of those days that start out unsettled with showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern corner of the province, clearing by the mid to late morning to early afternoon. Partly Sunny skies should be in place for the remainder of the day with winds out of the north it should help temperatures stay fairly comfortable , highs will be in the low to mid 20’s. I’m expecting a high temperature of 22C for Winnipeg and a high of 23C for Brandon. 

Friday overnight: Expect clear skies as a area of high pressure sits overhead , winds will be light out of the north. This will be one of the first nights with temperatures below the ten degree mark , a few areas in rural regions of Sw Manitoba could drop as low as seven degrees. For the most part I’m expecting low temperatures between 7 and 15C. A low of 12C is expected for Winnipeg and a low of 8C is expected for Brandon. 

Saturday: I’m expecting this to be one of the nicer days of the weekend, a large area of high pressure will be over the Southern prairie provinces which will be contributing to calm and pleasant conditions with very few clouds. The winds will be out of the north west with high temperatures for the majority of the day reaching the low 20s, if you are by the lakes temperatures will be closer to the 20°C mark and a few degrees below that. A high of 23C is expected for Winnipeg and a high of 21C for Brandon.

Saturday night: Will be a night with increasing clouds  with partly to mostly cloudy skies for the western portion of Manitoba as as an area of low pressure moves in from Saskatchewan. I’m not expecting much in the way of precipitation until the late morning hours on Sunday. Overnight lows will be mild only dropping into the mid teens with areas  , a low of 11C is expected for Brandon and a low of 15C for Brandon . 

Sunday looks like it could be a unsettled day. An area of low pressure will be moving through southern Manitoba bringing a large area of moisture ahead of it from the gulf of Mexico. Before the cold front moves through temperatures will jump up into the mid 20s in the southeast, some areas may likely see higher temperatures possibly surpassing 25C. However the southwest where the rain will arrive earlier you may only see mid to high teens 15-20C. Expect showers and thunderstorms to impact a majority of southern Manitoba up into central regions of Manitoba where rain is needed . Most of the storms will remain non severe , a few storms may produce marginally severe hail. I’m expecting a high temperature of 25°C for Winnipeg and a high of 18C for Brandon . 

Sunday night expect showers to linger for the remainder of the evening with clearing expected for the late evening. The factor for overnight low temperatures will depend on cloud cover, if the clouds can clear enough which looks plausible according to the models the lows will drop into the single digits for the southwest portion of Manitoba. Some areas in those regions could get closer to 5°C in rural areas. Here’s the catch in the southeast portion of Manitoba will be experiencing overnight lows in the low to mid teens. Why ? It look like the cold front will stall out as it enters NW Ontario which means a majority of the precipitation will be in that region, which will contribute to clouds keeping in the warmth over night. As a result I’m expecting temperatures to be on the mild side . A low of 5C can be expected for Brandon with Winnipeg sitting at 12C. 

Second half of the week:

Brings a few more areas of low pressure that will move through southern Manitoba with high pressure following behind it. I’m expecting pleasant conditions with a chance for some sun mixed in the risk of showers or thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday . High temperatures will continue to be in the Low to mid 20s with seasonable temperatures expected.

Warm Weather Continues, risk of showers and thunderstorms possible on Tuesday .

 This week looks like the warmer than average weather in Southern Manitoba will continue, thanks to a small building ridge of high pressure that will gradually move across the prairie provinces. 

On Monday : Southern Manitoba will see beautiful conditions with a mix of sun and cloud or partly cloudy skies as the building ridge moves in, high temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20’s. A few areas will see temperatures hitting 30C. The humidex values won’t be too high only reaching 35C at max. I’m expecting a high of 30C for Winnipeg and for Brandon a high of 29C. 

Monday night: there will be increasing cloudcover as a area of low pressure approaches from the west , otherwise there may be a few fog patches in some spots. Overnight lows will be mainly in the low to mid teens. A low of 15C is expected for Winnipeg and a low of 13C for Winnipeg . 

Tuesday expect a mix of sun and cloud with more cloud towards the interlakes. a area of low pressure will sit by the Sask MB border towards the later afternoon and evening , ahead of it a large area of instability will build through the day . There will be a risk for showers and or thunderstorms towards the late afternoon and evening (Conditional Threat if the sun stays out for the day ) .High temperatures for the majority of the day are expected to soar into the mid to high twenties. A high of 28C is expected for Brandon and a high of 29C for Winnipeg .

Tuesday night showers or thunderstorms , will clear otherwise cloudy skies are expected if storms don’t form. A low of 19C is expected for Winnipeg , while Brandon is expected to see a low of 16C. 

Wednesday: Should be a calmer day , a area of high pressure should sit over Northern Manitoba. Sunny skies are expected for the majority of the day . High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 20’s.  A high of 25C is expected for Winnipeg and a high of 24C for Brandon . 

Second half of the week : Looks like there should be more pleasant conditions on Thursday with temperatures in the mid to high 20’s and lows in the low to mid teens  before a few low pressure systems travel across Southern Manitoba bringing a risk of showers and thunderstorms off and on for the second half of the week into the weekend .

Extreme Summer Heat Continues with a surprise in Store!

 Manitoba continues to experience extreme summer heat particularly in southern Manitoba as a large broad upper Ridge continues to move over the prairie provinces. Find out when this heat will end in southern regions. 

Southern Manitoba will experience a short term heat wave as we head into the second half of the week , this will bring with it a risk for thunderstorms and humid conditions. 

Wednesday: The day will start off nice in the southwest and southeast regions. In the morning and afternoon hours there will be a risk for thunderstorms in central portions of Manitoba heading into the eastern regions of the province as well as the interlakes. There is a chance some storms could be severe. Otherwise expect sunny skies to prevail for the day . I would also expect it to be the hottest day of the week with high temperatures soaring into the high twenty degree range and low thirty degree range. Also of note will be the possibility of humidex values soaring into the high 30’s and low 40’s which will make it unbearable to be outside in . So much for sun tanning lol. I expect a high temperature of 34C for the city of Brandon (humidex 40C) and a high of 33C for Winnipeg (humidex 39C) . 

Wednesday Night: I would expect an increase in cloud cover towards the evening as an approaching trough moves into Manitoba, there will be a small risk for thunderstorms in the evening and overnight hours some of these storms may be severe however they are not expected to be widespread , mostly will be isolated and scattered. If storms don’t occur expect clear to partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid to high teens with Winnipeg only getting down to 19C and Brandon 16C. 

Thursday: Ongoing showers or thunderstorms in isolated sections are possible during the morning and early afternoon . Sunny skies are expected for the remainder of the day with a mix of sun and cloud. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to be in the high 20s to mid 30s, a high temperature of 33C with a humidex of 38C is expected for Winnipeg and a high temperature of 32°C with a humidex of 37C is expected for Brandon. 

Thursday Night: Increasing amounts of cloud cover look to enter southern regions of the province with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected around sunrise. Low temperatures are expected to drop to the high teens except for the interlake regions where you’ll see lows in the mid teens . A low of 17C is expected for Winnipeg and a low of 16C for Brandon. 

Friday (Here is your Surprise End to the heatwave!): An area of low pressure will be moving towards southern Manitoba, likely  entering the province by early to mid afternoon there will be a increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon into the evening hours. There are some model disagreements at the moment on timing and location of precipitation. The RDPS and GDPS seems to have the system located over southern Manitoba with a broad threat area for showers and thunderstorms whereas the NAM has the system located over the interlake portions of the province with a small area of showers and thunderstorms moving through in the morning and in the evening hours mainly impacting the interlake regions with a smaller threat further south . Based on model consensus I would say there is a possibility for thunderstorms some severe given current model trends show CAPE over 1,500J/Kg towards 2,500 J/Kg. Thunderstorms if they develop could pose a risk for hail, strong wind gusts and flash flooding . I would expect a high temperature of 27C for Winnipeg and a high of 26C for Brandon. 

The weekend: There be multiple chances for thunderstorms as a couple of impulses look to ripple across the ridge on the weekend. Temperatures look to continue to be quite warm but not as hot as it has been over the past couple of days high temperatures will moderate into the mid to high twenties.

Above Seasonal Temperatures Returning

For those of you who have been patiently waiting for warmer weather over the past couple of weeks above normal temperatures and increasing amounts of humidity look to return to southern Manitoba as we start the week. (As seen in the photo below for Tuesday). 

Monday : A building ridge will be crossing into Manitoba on Monday which will usher in warming temperatures that will transition from being seasonable to above average for this time of year . For the day Monday expect winds to be out of the south with a mix of sun and cloud and high temperatures for the majority of the region reaching the mid to high 20s especially as you go towards south western Manitoba. Areas in the southeast will be more closer to 23°C to 25°C. I expect a high temperature of 25°C for Winnipeg and high of 29°C for Brandon. 

Monday Night:

There be a increasing clouds overnight into Tuesday resulting in more cloud cover by the morning. Overnight low temperatures will drop for the majority of southern Manitoba between 15 and 20°C as a result I expect a low temperature of 16°C and Brandon and low temperature of 17°C in Winnipeg. 

 Tuesday: expect a chance for showers and weak thunderstorms in the morning to early afternoon Hours in southern Manitoba. Given weak CAPE I don’t expect much in the way of severe weather for Tuesday. The shower is clear by early afternoon will be a mix of sun and cloud and fairly pleasant conditions. The only difference on Tuesday will be the temperatures, the majority of the southern half the province temperatures will be between 25°C and 35°C surpass 30°C with the dewpoints reaching 15 to 20°C it’s entirely possible that some areas may see Humidex values closer to 37C. I’m forecasting a high temperature of 31°C for Winnipeg and a high temperature of 31°C for Brandon. Because of the heat there may be a chance for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon this will have to be monitored. Winds will be light out of the south at 20 km an hour.

Tuesday night:

Temperatures will be a bit more comfortable, overnight lows are expected to be between 15 and 20°C, winds will also be light out of the south to south west.  It overnight low of 16°C can be expected for Winnipeg and overnight low of 17°C for Brandon.

Wednesday:

Will be one of the hottest days for the first half of the week, High temperatures for a majority of seven Manitoba will be in the 30 to 35°C range with some areas in the Interlake slightly closer to the 27°C to 27°C to 29°C range. The dewpoint temperatures in the southwest portion of Manitoba and possibly in the red river valley region will be in the 15 to 20°C 20°C range , which would bring the humidex values closer to 40°C and if the dew point manages to sneak into the low 20s to 22°C the humidex may end up closer to 44C in some regions (yet to be determined). Overall I expect a high temperature of 33°C for the city of Winnipeg and a high temperature of 34°C for Brandon with both regions seeing humidex values from 38 to 40C. Because there is an area of low pressure close to the Interlake region, there may be a threat for some thunderstorms in the afternoon with some of which may be severe (however the cap may inhibit thunderstorm development ) we will keep you updated on Manitoba weather centre for any threat of severe weather on Wednesday. 

The second half of the week into the weekend:

The rest of the week high temperatures will continue to see high temperatures in the mid to high 20s are also be a threat of severe weather on Thursday  as an area of low pressure moves through the southern portion of Manitoba. There may be a brief reprieve of unsettled weather on Friday before it returns for the weekend.  

Hot humid weather returns with the threat for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain.

 Southern Manitoba will be entering another period of hot and unsettled weather , as multiple areas of low pressure will move into the region bringing with it a area of hotter temperatures and large amounts of gulf moisture .

Southern Manitoba will experience a risk for severe weather over the coming days as multiple areas of low pressure move through the region. 

Wednesday a approaching warm front will come into southeastern regions of Saskatchewan, it should be a fairly nice day with fairly sunny skies and a mix of sun and cloud , high temperatures will be soaring into the high 20’s to low 30’s. Humidex values will be in the 35 to 40C Range. A high of 31C is forecast for Winnipeg and a high of 30C is forecast for Brandon . Heading into the late afternoon southern Manitoba will experience a risk for severe thunderstorms with over 2,000J/KG CAPE as a warm front tracks into the region, there will be a risk for gusts to 110km/h, 3-5cm hail up to golfball size , and the potential for a tornado or 2 in the initial stages of development. It looks possible that a squall line of storms will form south of the border and in southwestern Manitoba which will likely move east northeast into the evening and overnight impacting areas of southern Manitoba some storms will come in from NW North Dakota as well. 

Wednesday Night

Heading into the overnight southern Manitoba will experience a risk for severe thunderstorms as mentioned above. After storms blow through, overnight lows will drop into the high teens to low 20’s. A low of 21C is expected for Brandon and a low of 22C is expected for Winnipeg it will also be quite humid. 

Thursday 

The forecast gets extremely complicated, there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms on the day with a risk for potential flash flooding if storms form in southern Manitoba particularly eastern regions , as the front looks to stall over southern regions of Manitoba on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday could reach the mid to high 20’s with a chance of surpassing 30C in some areas.  A high temperature of 25C is expected for Winnipeg and a high of 26C for Brandon. If the low pressure centre moves further north into southern regions of Manitoba rather than North Dakota there will be a chance of temperatures surpassing 30C once again. 

Thursday night expect storms to clear and a possible resurgence of storms in North Dakota that may drift north overnight into Manitoba by the morning hours . They will likely be severe with wind gusts up to 100km/h and large hail. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to high teens, a low of 19C is forecast for Winnipeg and a low of 15C for Brandon. 

Friday the low pressure system and front will move into  Northwestern Ontario by late afternoon with the threat for severe storms in the regions of Southeastern Manitoba into the afternoon and early evening before moving into Ontario. High temperatures will likely reach the mid to high 20’s. A high of 25C is forecast for Brandon , and a high of 25C is forecast for Winnipeg . 

The Weekend 

Looks like the return of more seasonable temperatures with lingering showers and storms on Saturday morning as a trough of low pressure moves in behind the cold front. Then generally sunny conditions should be on the way for the afternoon Saturday as well as Sunday. High temperatures in the low to mid to 20’s expected.

Hot and Humid Weekend along with the threat of more showers and thunderstorms.

 Southern Manitoba will experience a hot humid start to the weekend with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Read on to find out more .

Southern Manitoba will be under the influence of a approaching low pressure system on Friday , out ahead of it a large area of gulf moisture is expected to travel into the region . This will be the main weather maker for the first half of the weekend. 

Friday 

Will be a bit of a complicated forecast there is a risk for severe weather on Friday as a cold front moves through,  but that remains conditional. There is a chance for some left over cloud cover to filter into southern Manitoba from possible convection in the United States in the afternoon . Which may hinder temperatures in that case only reaching the mid 20’s. However if that doesn’t occur there will higher likelihood of sunny conditions , and hotter temperatures. High temperatures on the day Friday will be in the high 20’s to low 30’s. Humidex readings will be in the mid to high 30’s with some areas getting up to 40C resulting from dew points in the high teens to low 20’s.  A high temperature of 31C is expected for Winnipeg and a high of 30C for Brandon . As a result this will allow for very to extremely unstable conditions to develop, CAPE values are possible in the range of 2,500 to 5,000J/KG. Along side the instability shear in excess of 30-40 knots. Now there are 2 scenarios that could go , there is a possibility that things may not exactly pan out because storms may form and develop in North Dakota and may allow cloud cover to filter into the province which will allow for limited heating and only scattered severe storms to develop in the afternoon and evening. This will only allow for marginally severe hail to form and isolated to scattered severe storms. The 2nd part of the possible outcome is hot temperatures as mentioned above with little in the way of cloud cover and sufficient heating , as the cold front moves through severe storms would develop in the form of supercells likely in western and southwestern Manitoba . Initially giving a risk for 4-6cm hail and wind gusts over 120km/h, and a few tornadoes. Storms would form upscale possibly into a squall line with wind gusts in excess of 110km/h and hail of 3 to 5cm. There will be a threat for heavy rainfall as well with any storms that travel across the south . Any thunderstorms that develop will gradually move east throughout the evening and overnight into Northwest Ontario. 

Friday Night:

Expect clearing skies and any leftover storms to exit Manitoba, behind the cold front low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to high teens. A low of 17C can be expected for Winnipeg and a low of 14C for Brandon.

Saturday:

Expect warm weather and pleasant conditions, expect a mix of sun and cloud with high temperatures for a majority of Manitoba are expected near the mid to high 20’s. A high of 25C is expected for Winnipeg and a high of 27C for Brandon. 

Saturday Night:

A area of low pressure will be approaching the region with some increasing cloud cover, overnight the lows will drop into the mid to high teens. A low of 16C is expected for Winnipeg and a low of 14C for Winnipeg. 

Sunday : There will be a low pressure system moving into southern Manitoba , with a possible complex of thunderstorms moving into the region by mid afternoon. Given instability will be in the 1,000 to 2,500J/KG  there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms in the region. We’ll update you as needed for the day Sunday . High temperatures for Sunday will reach the mid twenties for a majority of Southern Manitoba. A high temperature of 26C is expected for Winnipeg and a high of 24C for Brandon. 

Sunday Night: Expect clearing skies and temperatures dropping into the low to mid teens. A low of 10C is expected for Brandon and a low of 12C in Winnipeg . Elsewhere lows will drop below 10C.

Next week: Looks like there will be a chance for more showers and thunderstorms along with temperatures in the mid to high 20’s, little in the way of humidity. A typical summer week expected. 

Heat and Humidity returns with Severe Weather Threat

Southern Manitoba will be seeing warmer temperatures arrive as we start the second half of the week , as a ridge of high pressure builds gradually into areas of eastern Canada and the United States. Find out how this will affect our weather below.. 

Hot and humid conditions expected for the day Friday , with dew points climbing into the low 20’s will make it feel oppressive. 

Southern Manitoba will be entering a hot and humid end to the week as a area of high pressure sits off to the east and multiple areas of low pressure move through our region. 

Wednesday will be a very pleasant day with a mix of sun and cloud , a trough of low pressure will be centred off in southwestern Manitoba. There will be a chance for pop up showers in the afternoon , with a small chance of weak thunderstorms. Any showers which form will die off quickly. Little in the way of humidity is expected as dew points will sit in the mid to high teens. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to high 20’s, my forecast for Winnipeg is 28C and for Brandon 27C. 

On Wednesday night expect any showers to clear, clear skies are expected with a few clouds. Humidity levels will be comfortable. Overnight lows will drop into the mid teens in the southwest to high teens in the southeast. A low temperature of 17C can be expected for Winnipeg and a low of 15C for Brandon. 

Thursday will be a transition day into a more unsettled pattern a area of low pressure will be moving into southern Saskatchewan, ahead of this there will be a risk for pop up thunderstorms. If any do form along lake breezes or the escarpment. Marginal hail may occur with some heavy rainfall. Temperatures will bump up into the 30C range for a majority of the region .Humidex levels won’t be too bad , with the highest range getting to 35C. A high of 30C is expected for Winnipeg and for Brandon a high of 29C.

Thursday night

Will be a calm and pleasant night , not much in the way of cloud cover is expected. Overnight lows will drop into the high teens , for a majority of central and southern regions of Manitoba. A low of 18C can be expected for Brandon, with Good old Winnipeg dropping to 19C. 

Friday (Hot Humid, Possible Severe Weather)

Friday will be a bit more complicated in terms of forecasting. Southern Manitoba will be entering a hot humid environment with a mix of sun and cloud for the majority of the day. High temperatures will be in the high twenties to low thirties, dew point temperatures will also soar into the high teens to low 20’s. As a result humidex values look to hit the mid to high thirties nearing 40C. A high temperature of 33C is expected for Winnipeg , and a high of 32C for Brandon. A cold front will move through starting late in the afternoon and early evening encountering the hot humid airmass , supercell thunderstorms will likely form and then transition into a squall line for the evening into overnight hours. Model guidance suggests the threat area will be in SW Manitoba through the Red Red River Valley into eastern Manitoba. 

Friday night expect showers and thunderstorms to continue possibly past midnight , then mainly clear skies overnight. A low of 14C can be expected for Brandon with a low of 16C for Winnipeg. 

The Weekend

Heading into the weekend looks like the hot conditions will continue with high temperatures in the mid to high twenties to low 30’s and overnight lows in the mid to high teens. There will also be a risk for more severe weather on Saturday and Sunday . 

Pleasant Summer weather Continues, for the First Half of the week.

Southern Manitoba has been experiencing beautiful weather the past couple of days with pleasant summer weather conditions in place, This trend looks to continue for the beginning of our week. You can say thanks to our friend called high pressure.

Southern Manitoba can expect a pleasant First half of the week. An area of high-pressure looks to sit over  northern Manitoba  gradually moving east over the next couple of days. 

The day on Monday should be beautiful , warm and comfortable with little in the way of humidity as high pressure moves off to the east. Winds will be light out of the southeast. High temperatures on Monday will be in the mid to high twenties , with a high temperature of 25C expected for Brandon , and a high temperature of 26C for Winnipeg . 

On Monday night fair skies are expected with overnight lows in the low to mid teens. Areas in extreme southwestern Manitoba will see lows possibly near 10C in rural areas. A low of 11C is expected for Brandon , 14C in Winnipeg . 

On Tuesday it will be a similar day, expect a mix of sun and cloud . Winds will shift to the south as a area of low pressure approaches southeastern Saskatchewan and the high pressure system sits over central Ontario. High temperatures are likely to reach the mid to high 20’s through the majority of the southern half. A high of 26C can be expected for Winnipeg with a high of 25C in Brandon. 

On Tuesday night there will be a chance for some showers and weak thunderstorms ahead of a system in SE Saskatchewan in the evening in areas of southwestern Manitoba. Any thunderstorms which form will remain below severe limits , and weaken around midnight . Overnight lows will be slightly above seasonal for this time of year in the high teens in some areas and mid teens elsewhere. A low of 14C can be expected for Brandon and in Winnipeg around 18C. 

Heading into Wednesday there will be a area of low pressure crossing southern Manitoba , with a mix of sun and clouds . There will also be a chance for showers and a risk for thunderstorms towards the afternoon hours in the Red River Valley. At this time it doesn’t look like the storms will be severe. We will definitely update you if that changes in future model runs . High temperatures look to be in the mid to high 20’s on Wednesday with a high of 28C expected in Winnipeg and a high of 26C expected in Brandon.

Heading into the second half of the week it looks like multiple areas of low pressure will move across southern Manitoba bringing a threat for more heat (mentioned below ) and a threat for severe weather through the end of the week into the weekend. High temperatures will still be in the mid to high 20s some areas possibly surpassing 30°C.  The humidity may also increase , I will be monitoring this over the coming days . Have a good start to your week - Mike