Hot and Humid Weekend along with the threat of more showers and thunderstorms.

 Southern Manitoba will experience a hot humid start to the weekend with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Read on to find out more .

Southern Manitoba will be under the influence of a approaching low pressure system on Friday , out ahead of it a large area of gulf moisture is expected to travel into the region . This will be the main weather maker for the first half of the weekend. 

Friday 

Will be a bit of a complicated forecast there is a risk for severe weather on Friday as a cold front moves through,  but that remains conditional. There is a chance for some left over cloud cover to filter into southern Manitoba from possible convection in the United States in the afternoon . Which may hinder temperatures in that case only reaching the mid 20’s. However if that doesn’t occur there will higher likelihood of sunny conditions , and hotter temperatures. High temperatures on the day Friday will be in the high 20’s to low 30’s. Humidex readings will be in the mid to high 30’s with some areas getting up to 40C resulting from dew points in the high teens to low 20’s.  A high temperature of 31C is expected for Winnipeg and a high of 30C for Brandon . As a result this will allow for very to extremely unstable conditions to develop, CAPE values are possible in the range of 2,500 to 5,000J/KG. Along side the instability shear in excess of 30-40 knots. Now there are 2 scenarios that could go , there is a possibility that things may not exactly pan out because storms may form and develop in North Dakota and may allow cloud cover to filter into the province which will allow for limited heating and only scattered severe storms to develop in the afternoon and evening. This will only allow for marginally severe hail to form and isolated to scattered severe storms. The 2nd part of the possible outcome is hot temperatures as mentioned above with little in the way of cloud cover and sufficient heating , as the cold front moves through severe storms would develop in the form of supercells likely in western and southwestern Manitoba . Initially giving a risk for 4-6cm hail and wind gusts over 120km/h, and a few tornadoes. Storms would form upscale possibly into a squall line with wind gusts in excess of 110km/h and hail of 3 to 5cm. There will be a threat for heavy rainfall as well with any storms that travel across the south . Any thunderstorms that develop will gradually move east throughout the evening and overnight into Northwest Ontario. 

Friday Night:

Expect clearing skies and any leftover storms to exit Manitoba, behind the cold front low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to high teens. A low of 17C can be expected for Winnipeg and a low of 14C for Brandon.

Saturday:

Expect warm weather and pleasant conditions, expect a mix of sun and cloud with high temperatures for a majority of Manitoba are expected near the mid to high 20’s. A high of 25C is expected for Winnipeg and a high of 27C for Brandon. 

Saturday Night:

A area of low pressure will be approaching the region with some increasing cloud cover, overnight the lows will drop into the mid to high teens. A low of 16C is expected for Winnipeg and a low of 14C for Winnipeg. 

Sunday : There will be a low pressure system moving into southern Manitoba , with a possible complex of thunderstorms moving into the region by mid afternoon. Given instability will be in the 1,000 to 2,500J/KG  there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms in the region. We’ll update you as needed for the day Sunday . High temperatures for Sunday will reach the mid twenties for a majority of Southern Manitoba. A high temperature of 26C is expected for Winnipeg and a high of 24C for Brandon. 

Sunday Night: Expect clearing skies and temperatures dropping into the low to mid teens. A low of 10C is expected for Brandon and a low of 12C in Winnipeg . Elsewhere lows will drop below 10C.

Next week: Looks like there will be a chance for more showers and thunderstorms along with temperatures in the mid to high 20’s, little in the way of humidity. A typical summer week expected.