Warming Weather Trend

 Much of southern sections of Manitoba can expect to see some of the warmest weather we will likely see this month into November, before cold begins to set in. Find out more about this well above average warmth in this weekend blog. 

(Above): Warm weather ahead for the day Saturday as shown above by the RDPS 00Z weather model. You can thank this to a ridge of high pressure sitting over our area. Temperatures in the low to mid teens likely.  

Friday Night: The rest of the evening into our overnight will be marked by warm and slightly seasonal weather, some cloudy skies with thicker clouds likely. Showers are likely in the overnight period from west to east. A general 5mm of rainfall is likely overnight. Temperatures overnight will likely drop into the mid to high single digits. You can thank the strong south winds for the warm weather. 

Saturday: During the day Saturday , mostly cloudy skies will be likely during the morning hours . Sunny skies should filter in during the latter half of the day too. Temperatures will soar into the low to mid teens during the day. Saturday night: A cold front approaching from the northern part of Manitoba will sink south slightly overnight bringing in increasing cloud cover and the possibility of some colder overnight lows. Areas in eastern, western and inter lake sections of Manitoba may see overnight lows drop below zero that will likely be in rural areas of the province. Areas elsewhere will see low temperatures in the low to mid single digits. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy skies are likely in the morning, with cloudy skies likely during the latter half of the day. Showers will probably move through during the second half of the day with light amounts of a trace to 2mm. Western Manitoba may have enough time to escape the rain by the afternoon which will help clearing arrive early enough, to allow for sunshine and temperatures to rise into the low to mid teens. Elsewhere in the south can expect showers to continue, with the highest temperatures reaching as far north of Winkler. So the edge of the warmest air may just sit south of Winnipeg, with areas north of highway 2 and highway 1 into the inter lakes, parklands, western Manitoba and eastern half of our region. In those regions we will only be seeing high temperatures in the high single digits. Overnight low temperatures on the night into Monday will drop into the low single digits. 

The week ahead: Much of the same with weather can be expected into the week; with high temperatures in the low to mid teens and overnight lows in the mid to high single digits.  Increasing chances for low pressure systems during the week will help boost our temperatures. 

Warm weather continues this weekend, showers, thunderstorms and snowfall Ahead.

 Much of southern Manitoba will likely see some of the warmest weather this weekend, that we havent seen since September. You can thank this warmth to a ridge of high pressure moving in from western Canada, this warmth will likely persist into the weekend. However a change is likely on the way, with a likely chance for rain, thunderstorms and even maybe snow. 

Friday: Southern Manitoba will expect to see a beautiful end to the week with high temperatures soaring into the low to mid teens, increasing cloud is expected into the latter half of the day as a disturbance from the states starts building in. 

Friday Night: A low pressure system over the northern plains will likely bring scattered to widespread areas of showers just slightly north of the American border into parts of southern Manitoba into the overnight mainly from highway 1 southwards. Best chances for showers will be from the late evening into the overnight period. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits with the coldest expected in the southwest part of Manitoba. 

Saturday: The weather on Saturday will be our transition day I’m expecting that it will also be one of the few days left of warmth, a low pressure system situated over North Dakota will likely allow for a batch of showers to develop over the north end of the low. Some cloud and showers will likely move through the southeast part of Manitoba before partly cloudy skies and some cloud increases during the latter half of the day with more showers moving through in the late afternoon and early evening. A general 5 to 10mm is likely. High temperatures will likely soar into the low to mid teens, with areas in some locales of the west and east seeing highs in the high single digits. 

Saturday Night: It looks like the rain I mentioned will likely move north overnight into central and northern Manitoba. Behind it some partly cloudy skies are expected and times of heavier cloud cover are likely. Overnight low temperatures will likely stay quite mild if you ask me, a large area of the south central and southeast will likely see temperatures in the mid to high single digits. Areas in the southwest will see lows in the low single digits. 

Sunday: This is when the weather gets interesting, a low pressure system will likely move into southern parts of Manitoba.with a warm front draped over parts of northern North Dakota. Ahead of it some showers are possible over a small section of the inter lakes and western Manitoba. Some mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely on the day Sunday, some scattered showers are also possible during the day. Temperature on the day, will likely rise into the low teens to mid teens as per the ECMWF, and GFS. There is a chance however that warmth could stay south of the border with temperatures only reaching the high single digits (blah) according to the NAM model. It’s all dependent on how far north that warm front moves. Current guidance is indicating that chance of the temperatures higher than 10C remains the likely outcome.  

Sunday Night: The warmth in the southeast will stick around as the warm front and the low itself lifts north, all of the snow that was forecasted to impact us beforehand is now likely to hit southeastern Saskatchewan. 

There’s a great variability with this system and some areas may see rain and storms areas further west could get upward of 10cm

Of snow. Details below..

Thunderstorm threat with MUCAPE (Above): As southern Manitoba remains on the warm side of the low, as it moves north into Ontario by morning an increasing amount of gulf moisture will aid in a risk of showers and thunderstorms likely after 12am and the threat will continue into the early morning hours. Models are all over the place in regards to where the threat area will exist, based on the data I’m seeing the consensus is that the area from Carberry or Brandon east towards the Ontario border north into the inter lakes have a chance with the best risk area in southeast Manitoba into the red river valley and inter lake regions including Winnipeg. A general 5 to 15mm is likely overnight in areas that see rainfall. These thunderstorms will not be severe but because freezing levels are lower this time of year, there could be some small hail and gusty winds which I expect the threat to continue into the morning hours. I had my first thunderstorm in April here in Winnipeg so if we get one our season will have been 7 months long. 

Snowfall or mixed rain and snow threat: Areas in southwestern Manitoba especially near the Saskatchewan border may have mixing snow and rain during the overnight period, a general 10 to 20mm can be expected for areas of western Manitoba with the snowfall amounts reaching 2 to 4cm when all is said and done. 

Temperatures: On Sunday night will be quite mild with a large area of southeast and south central regions seeing lows in the low to mid teens, areas in the southwest and the inter lakes, and the eastern half of Manitoba seeing lows in the mid single digits. 

(Above): Potential rainfall will likely exceed 30mm in areas of southeastern Manitoba by Monday afternoon, thanks to thunderstorms embedded in rain. 

Monday (Above): During the morning the low pressure system should continue lifting north and east, there also will be lingering instability there’s a chance that if thunderstorms don’t materialize overnight the threat could occur during the morning into the afternoon hours. The chance of 20 to 40mm of rain is possible as per the latest NAM model (Below) which is overly aggressive on the convection, and later on the thunderstorm risk but with Manitoba you never know. These thunderstorms could develop earlier as the ECMWF highlights, again another reason why convection is hard to forecast. 

As the low moves off into Ontario, cooler weather will begin filtering in on the backside of the low with areas from portage la prairie to the Saskatchewan Manitoba border seeing the chance at rain and snow/freezing rain during the day before a complete switch over to snow for the entire southern half of Manitoba except for the southeast where rain and snow/freezing rain are possible. However snowfall amounts will only reach a trace to 2 to 4cm across the south, most of it will melt in contact . Temperatures will rise into the mid to high single digits before dropping into the low to mid single digits. 

The rest of the week: Cold weather returns with high temperatures only in the mid to high single digits and lows in the minus single digits. There will be a chance for rain and snow showers on Tuesday as another low pressure system moves through. 

Colder weather pattern arrives could stay for a week, first snow of the year possible.

 Well it’s sad to say but our region is pretty much done with the summer like warmth that we have experienced over the past several weeks. Yesterday much of the region saw temperatures in the high teens and low 20’s, unfortunately this weather pattern looks to change. A colder weather pattern is beginning to take shape as fall takes hold, you can thank this to a strong northwesterly flow aloft and a trough of low pressure that will be bringing in moisture from the north. There will be a good chance of rain and snow. Find out when and where we expect snow and how cold it will get, in this weeks weather update. 

(Above: Coldest temperatures in a long time expected to impact a large portion of southern Manitoba on Thursday. Temperatures only reaching the mid single digits or lower). 

Wednesday: Todays weather will be dominated by a northwesterly flow aloft which will bring in significant amounts of cloud cover, overcast skies are likely. Temperatures today will only rise into the mid to high single digits, some localities could reach 10C today. There also will be a chance for showers or flurries to develop as the day goes on, off the Manitoba lakes. 

Wednesday Night (Above): This is when things get interesting, a strong north to northwest flow will be in place which will allow for squalls to develop off of lake Winnipeg and lake Manitoba in lesser strength. Regardless a significant amount of snow is expected east of lake Winnipeg. A general 5-10cm of snow could fall east of lake Winnipeg , mainly near Bissett, Victoria Beach, Manigotgan areas. As for the areas of the red river valley and the inter lakes there will likely be some lake effect snow, a general 2 to 4cm is likely west of and including Winnipeg. Take note that initially the snow will likely melt in contact before it accumulates. 

Thursday (Above): It looks like this will end up being the coldest days of the week, snow will likely continue for a large section of areas just east of lake Winnipeg. There’s a chance there could be ongoing bands of snow off of lake Winnipeg. Accumulations will vary from 20 to 25cm on the east shore of lake Winnipeg, to 5 to 10cm in total west of Winnipeg off lake Manitoba snow. Then towards the latter half of the day snow will develop over a large area from the Ontario border to about as far west as the red river valley including the inter lakes filling in with the snow bands. Some of this could be mixed with rain. A general 5 to 10cm can be expected for areas that haven’t received snow from the bands of lake affect snow. 

Thursday Night: Snow showers will likely continue aided by a northerly flow over the southern half of Manitoba, as the low sags south a large area of the snow that is expected to impact eastern Manitoba will slowly filter west to the southwestern portions of Manitoba with the pesky squalls ending by the early overnight. (See snowfall totals above).  Then from north to south clearing should take over. A general 20 to 30cm is likely in the areas east of Lake Winnipeg, and 5 to 15cm over the headingly, elie and Winnipeg area. My general thinking is that the HRRR is possibly overdoing amounts for the band west of Winnipeg. So I think 10cm to 15cm is reasonable, given the 20cm it’s suggesting is highly unlikely. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid minus single digits in western Manitoba, areas under snow and cloud will see lows drop into the low plus single digits. Areas in eastern Manitoba can expect those lows to drop into the low minus single digits.  Most of the snow should clear the region by overnight with lingering rain and snow showers in the interlakes into southern Manitoba. 

Friday: The low pressure system will begin to move into northwestern Ontario as it does so warmer air will begin to move in showers and flurries are possible during the day with a lot of cloudcover still present. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high single digits for a large area of southern Manitoba. Snow should melt rapidly at these temperatures. 

Friday Night: Another low pressure system , with a trough attached and a cold front will usher in another round of snowfall into the morning on Saturday for areas of western Manitoba more than likely. It looks like it will be a brief but quick burst of snow overnight in western portions of Manitoba with only 2 to 5cm possibly by morning. Temperatures on Friday night will drop into the low minus single digits along areas south of highway 1 before moderating overnight in the low single digits, in various areas as cloud cover moves in.

The weekend: Slightly Warmer weather arrives with temperatures rising into the mid to high single digits with a chance for showers on Saturday, that clears on Saturday night with a chance for lake effect flurries. Sunday is when colder weather is likely and lake effect snow is possible with sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid single digits on Saturday, Saturday night lows will drop into the low minus single digits in the west and interlakes and low plus single digits in areas of the south central and southeast. Sunday will see highs in the low single digits with lows in the low single digits and low minus single digits in the western half of Manitoba. 

Long Range: It looks like later in the week the cold weather will persist as we remain on the east side of high pressure with similar highs and lows. It also appears that the summer weather will possibly return midweek with above normal temperatures in the mid to high teens, or low 20’s with overnight lows in the high single digits. How long this will stay for is still unclear. 

Last Gasp of Above Seasonal Weather, cooling trend to follow.

 Southern Manitoba has basked in unseasonably warm weather over the last few weeks, with temperatures in the mid to high teens and often in the low to mid 20’s. It’s been so warm that mosquitoes are still biting. Will things change!?? However it’s going to cool off unfortunately a change in the weather pattern is expected as cool arctic air will filter south thanks to an area of high pressure for up to 48 hours. Find out what this means for our weather over the second half of the week. (Don’t mind me and the late post I had a delicious thanksgiving lunch which put me out for a bit). 

Wednesday Night: Much of the region of southern sections of Manitoba will see cold weather filter in tonight , a northerly flow will move in with a chance for showers and flurries. A chance that some may stream off of the Manitoba lakes as well, only a trace to 2cm is possible overnight low temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid single digits. Some areas in the western half of Manitoba will see lows in the low minus single digits. 

Thursday: Will end up being a colder than average day arctic high pressure will sit over our area,  some cloud will stream over and off the lakes as cold air funnels over the relatively warm waters. There’s a chance for some early morning flurries and showers. The rest of the day should bring in some sun and cloud. Nothing significant weather wise is expected. Unfortunately temperatures aren’t expected to rise much with them only rising into the mid single digits, maybe near 10C. Get out your fall clothing!

Thursday Night: A clear night will lead to cold overnight lows with a majority of the region seeing low temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -6C). Yes that cold!! Good news is that the cold will not last long. So the morning on Friday will be quite cold. I would say however that it’s normal for this time of year, summer has to end unfortunately. 

Friday: Sunny beautiful weather is expected into the afternoon before thicker clouds move in late afternoon over the lakes and the parklands and interlakes showers are possible in extreme eastern sections.  High temperatures, will once again climb back to their normal values with some areas just a tad below seasonal. Temperatures are likely to reach the high single digits in the southeast, and the south central, interlakes and southwest and parklands seeing highs in the low to mid teens. 

Friday Night: An area of increasing cloud will move in during the early evening with some rain showers continuing . There’s a possibility that nothing may come out of it, overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits areas around the lakes will likely see lows in the high single digits. 

The Weekend: Much of the region will see warm weather this weekend,, a return to warm and seasonal weather will be likely. Temperatures will rise into the mid teens on Saturday.. Saturday night will see lows in the low to mid single digits in the west and central parts of Manitoba . Then low minus single digits are likely in southeast Manitoba. Sunday mostly sunny weather is likely in the mid to high teens with some areas possibly reaching the 20C range only near the American border. Sunday night is expected to be much of the same with lows in the high single digits to the low teens. 

Long Range: Extremely hotter than average weather looks possible with high temperatures returning to the  low to mid 20’s on Monday the to high 20’s on Tuesday with overnight lows in the low teens on Monday night and mid to high teens on Tuesday night. Fluctuating temperatures are likely to occur during the week with highs around normal to slightly above average. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected but will have to watch for showers or weak thunderstorms on the warmer days, although if not sunny weather is likely .