Much of southern Manitoba will likely see some of the warmest weather this weekend, that we havent seen since September. You can thank this warmth to a ridge of high pressure moving in from western Canada, this warmth will likely persist into the weekend. However a change is likely on the way, with a likely chance for rain, thunderstorms and even maybe snow.
Friday: Southern Manitoba will expect to see a beautiful end to the week with high temperatures soaring into the low to mid teens, increasing cloud is expected into the latter half of the day as a disturbance from the states starts building in.
Friday Night: A low pressure system over the northern plains will likely bring scattered to widespread areas of showers just slightly north of the American border into parts of southern Manitoba into the overnight mainly from highway 1 southwards. Best chances for showers will be from the late evening into the overnight period. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits with the coldest expected in the southwest part of Manitoba.
Saturday: The weather on Saturday will be our transition day I’m expecting that it will also be one of the few days left of warmth, a low pressure system situated over North Dakota will likely allow for a batch of showers to develop over the north end of the low. Some cloud and showers will likely move through the southeast part of Manitoba before partly cloudy skies and some cloud increases during the latter half of the day with more showers moving through in the late afternoon and early evening. A general 5 to 10mm is likely. High temperatures will likely soar into the low to mid teens, with areas in some locales of the west and east seeing highs in the high single digits.
Saturday Night: It looks like the rain I mentioned will likely move north overnight into central and northern Manitoba. Behind it some partly cloudy skies are expected and times of heavier cloud cover are likely. Overnight low temperatures will likely stay quite mild if you ask me, a large area of the south central and southeast will likely see temperatures in the mid to high single digits. Areas in the southwest will see lows in the low single digits.
Sunday: This is when the weather gets interesting, a low pressure system will likely move into southern parts of Manitoba.with a warm front draped over parts of northern North Dakota. Ahead of it some showers are possible over a small section of the inter lakes and western Manitoba. Some mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely on the day Sunday, some scattered showers are also possible during the day. Temperature on the day, will likely rise into the low teens to mid teens as per the ECMWF, and GFS. There is a chance however that warmth could stay south of the border with temperatures only reaching the high single digits (blah) according to the NAM model. It’s all dependent on how far north that warm front moves. Current guidance is indicating that chance of the temperatures higher than 10C remains the likely outcome.
Sunday Night: The warmth in the southeast will stick around as the warm front and the low itself lifts north, all of the snow that was forecasted to impact us beforehand is now likely to hit southeastern Saskatchewan.
Thunderstorm threat with MUCAPE (Above): As southern Manitoba remains on the warm side of the low, as it moves north into Ontario by morning an increasing amount of gulf moisture will aid in a risk of showers and thunderstorms likely after 12am and the threat will continue into the early morning hours. Models are all over the place in regards to where the threat area will exist, based on the data I’m seeing the consensus is that the area from Carberry or Brandon east towards the Ontario border north into the inter lakes have a chance with the best risk area in southeast Manitoba into the red river valley and inter lake regions including Winnipeg. A general 5 to 15mm is likely overnight in areas that see rainfall. These thunderstorms will not be severe but because freezing levels are lower this time of year, there could be some small hail and gusty winds which I expect the threat to continue into the morning hours. I had my first thunderstorm in April here in Winnipeg so if we get one our season will have been 7 months long.
Snowfall or mixed rain and snow threat: Areas in southwestern Manitoba especially near the Saskatchewan border may have mixing snow and rain during the overnight period, a general 10 to 20mm can be expected for areas of western Manitoba with the snowfall amounts reaching 2 to 4cm when all is said and done.
Temperatures: On Sunday night will be quite mild with a large area of southeast and south central regions seeing lows in the low to mid teens, areas in the southwest and the inter lakes, and the eastern half of Manitoba seeing lows in the mid single digits.
(Above): Potential rainfall will likely exceed 30mm in areas of southeastern Manitoba by Monday afternoon, thanks to thunderstorms embedded in rain.
Monday (Above): During the morning the low pressure system should continue lifting north and east, there also will be lingering instability there’s a chance that if thunderstorms don’t materialize overnight the threat could occur during the morning into the afternoon hours. The chance of 20 to 40mm of rain is possible as per the latest NAM model (Below) which is overly aggressive on the convection, and later on the thunderstorm risk but with Manitoba you never know. These thunderstorms could develop earlier as the ECMWF highlights, again another reason why convection is hard to forecast.
As the low moves off into Ontario, cooler weather will begin filtering in on the backside of the low with areas from portage la prairie to the Saskatchewan Manitoba border seeing the chance at rain and snow/freezing rain during the day before a complete switch over to snow for the entire southern half of Manitoba except for the southeast where rain and snow/freezing rain are possible. However snowfall amounts will only reach a trace to 2 to 4cm across the south, most of it will melt in contact . Temperatures will rise into the mid to high single digits before dropping into the low to mid single digits.
The rest of the week: Cold weather returns with high temperatures only in the mid to high single digits and lows in the minus single digits. There will be a chance for rain and snow showers on Tuesday as another low pressure system moves through.
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