Colder weather pattern arrives could stay for a week, first snow of the year possible.

 Well it’s sad to say but our region is pretty much done with the summer like warmth that we have experienced over the past several weeks. Yesterday much of the region saw temperatures in the high teens and low 20’s, unfortunately this weather pattern looks to change. A colder weather pattern is beginning to take shape as fall takes hold, you can thank this to a strong northwesterly flow aloft and a trough of low pressure that will be bringing in moisture from the north. There will be a good chance of rain and snow. Find out when and where we expect snow and how cold it will get, in this weeks weather update. 

(Above: Coldest temperatures in a long time expected to impact a large portion of southern Manitoba on Thursday. Temperatures only reaching the mid single digits or lower). 

Wednesday: Todays weather will be dominated by a northwesterly flow aloft which will bring in significant amounts of cloud cover, overcast skies are likely. Temperatures today will only rise into the mid to high single digits, some localities could reach 10C today. There also will be a chance for showers or flurries to develop as the day goes on, off the Manitoba lakes. 

Wednesday Night (Above): This is when things get interesting, a strong north to northwest flow will be in place which will allow for squalls to develop off of lake Winnipeg and lake Manitoba in lesser strength. Regardless a significant amount of snow is expected east of lake Winnipeg. A general 5-10cm of snow could fall east of lake Winnipeg , mainly near Bissett, Victoria Beach, Manigotgan areas. As for the areas of the red river valley and the inter lakes there will likely be some lake effect snow, a general 2 to 4cm is likely west of and including Winnipeg. Take note that initially the snow will likely melt in contact before it accumulates. 

Thursday (Above): It looks like this will end up being the coldest days of the week, snow will likely continue for a large section of areas just east of lake Winnipeg. There’s a chance there could be ongoing bands of snow off of lake Winnipeg. Accumulations will vary from 20 to 25cm on the east shore of lake Winnipeg, to 5 to 10cm in total west of Winnipeg off lake Manitoba snow. Then towards the latter half of the day snow will develop over a large area from the Ontario border to about as far west as the red river valley including the inter lakes filling in with the snow bands. Some of this could be mixed with rain. A general 5 to 10cm can be expected for areas that haven’t received snow from the bands of lake affect snow. 

Thursday Night: Snow showers will likely continue aided by a northerly flow over the southern half of Manitoba, as the low sags south a large area of the snow that is expected to impact eastern Manitoba will slowly filter west to the southwestern portions of Manitoba with the pesky squalls ending by the early overnight. (See snowfall totals above).  Then from north to south clearing should take over. A general 20 to 30cm is likely in the areas east of Lake Winnipeg, and 5 to 15cm over the headingly, elie and Winnipeg area. My general thinking is that the HRRR is possibly overdoing amounts for the band west of Winnipeg. So I think 10cm to 15cm is reasonable, given the 20cm it’s suggesting is highly unlikely. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid minus single digits in western Manitoba, areas under snow and cloud will see lows drop into the low plus single digits. Areas in eastern Manitoba can expect those lows to drop into the low minus single digits.  Most of the snow should clear the region by overnight with lingering rain and snow showers in the interlakes into southern Manitoba. 

Friday: The low pressure system will begin to move into northwestern Ontario as it does so warmer air will begin to move in showers and flurries are possible during the day with a lot of cloudcover still present. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high single digits for a large area of southern Manitoba. Snow should melt rapidly at these temperatures. 

Friday Night: Another low pressure system , with a trough attached and a cold front will usher in another round of snowfall into the morning on Saturday for areas of western Manitoba more than likely. It looks like it will be a brief but quick burst of snow overnight in western portions of Manitoba with only 2 to 5cm possibly by morning. Temperatures on Friday night will drop into the low minus single digits along areas south of highway 1 before moderating overnight in the low single digits, in various areas as cloud cover moves in.

The weekend: Slightly Warmer weather arrives with temperatures rising into the mid to high single digits with a chance for showers on Saturday, that clears on Saturday night with a chance for lake effect flurries. Sunday is when colder weather is likely and lake effect snow is possible with sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid single digits on Saturday, Saturday night lows will drop into the low minus single digits in the west and interlakes and low plus single digits in areas of the south central and southeast. Sunday will see highs in the low single digits with lows in the low single digits and low minus single digits in the western half of Manitoba. 

Long Range: It looks like later in the week the cold weather will persist as we remain on the east side of high pressure with similar highs and lows. It also appears that the summer weather will possibly return midweek with above normal temperatures in the mid to high teens, or low 20’s with overnight lows in the high single digits. How long this will stay for is still unclear.