Shower and Thunderstorm Chances return to Southern Manitoba, Fall Severe Thunderstorms to start October. Unusually Mild.

 Good afternoon and good evening southern Manitoba folks, looks like a very interesting weather setup is in store for this weekend with the potential for some active weather on the day Sunday, unusually warm air mass is expected to filter into southern Manitoba this weekend with a possibility of high temperatures rising into the high 20s with humidity values in the low 30's. A low pressure system coming up from Montana will influence the weather this weekend which will provide this summerlike weather. 

Saturday: Warm weather will increase overall as a warm front approaches from the south, temperatures will rise into the mid 20’s for the southern half of Manitoba and high teens in the Interlake regions. Calm and sunny weather is likely on Saturday. 

Saturday Night (Thunderstorms likely as shown on the RDPS above.. and NAM Below..

Saturday Night: (Above: Photo of SkewT Graph of Winnipeg area during sunday night). A warm front will lift north into the overnight period , as a result temperatures will remain mild with lows in the mid teens around 12-15C. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: What is most of concern is that as the warm front moves into a cooler airmass that air will begin to rise, during the late evening into the overnight period CAPE values will begin filling into the very Unstable range over southwestern portions of Manitoba into eastern sections. Likely providing an opportunity for the development of thunderstorms some of which may end up becoming severe especially in the morning hours. Data at the moment is showing development happening in western Manitoba by 3am moving east into the red River valley by sunrise. If the warm front gets slowed down moving north then the threat for storms will occur during the latter half of the morning into the early afternoon. Regardless a threat for hail the size of 1-4cm in diameter is a possibility meaning pea size to golf ball size, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall in excess of 40mm in localized areas. Storms will fire wherever the front can interact with the cool airmass to the north and anywhere from the USA border to the interlakes is a possibility, all of West MB to the whiteshell. 

Sunday: I am expecting on the day Sunday that showers and thunderstorms will clear the area as the front continues to move northwards with the hot and humid air mass enveloping much of southern Manitoba on the day in the afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday may reach the high 20s with humidex in the low 30s, there is some inconsistency with some model runs. The NAM is saying the majority of the heat will be centred over northern North Dakota whereas the RDPS and GDPS both show it impacting majority of the southern Manitoba so it depends on how far north the warm front can position itself in the afternoon. There may be a threat for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon however more than likely in eastern and central Manitoba and the interlakes. If any storms form in the capped and unstable airmass from lake breeze interactions storms may be stronger than in the morning with the potential for supercells as a possibility, large hail, damaging winds and heavy flooding rains.

Sunday Night (Left): Photo of the NAM showing thunderstorm chances in the central and eastern parts of Manitoba): A possibility exists for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Sunday evening as a   occluded front moves through a hot humid air mass, The Zero Zulu NAM model is the only one showing this at the moment so we'll need to bear watching as we get into the afternoon on Sunday to see if there will be a chance at thunderstorms some severe on Sunday evening. It is doubtful though as main forcing remains to the north. Overnight low temperature on Sunday will slowly decrease from the mid 20s to the high teens centred over eastern Manitoba as a cold front remains further off to the east which means by morning temperatures will still be in the teens in South Central Manitoba. A mild night is expected on Sunday night. 

The week ahead (Above: Thunderstorms are possible on Monday Night): 

Showers and thunderstorms are likely for the day on Monday and Tuesday with a cold front moving through a  unstable air mass. Temperatures on Monday will likely reach the low 20s to mid 20s with some areas of Western Manitoba and interlakes seeing high temperatures in the high teens. More than likely overnight lows in the mid to high teens and high temperatures in the low 20's are likely, before  a switch to temperatures in the mid to high teens for highs. Cooler weather arrives behind the cold front on Tuesday evening. 

Regardless enjoy the unusually warm start to October thanks to El Nino and Climate Change. 

-Mike McGregor

Weather details for the weekend coming soon!

 All the details for the weekend weather will be included in a blog Friday afternoon based on current weather information temperatures will rebound into the high 20s this weekend with a risk of severe thunderstorms based on current model data all that information will be coming in on Friday afternoon have a good evening. 

-Mike McGregor

Showers and Thunderstorms and cool weather this e

This blog will be brief as I am not feeling the best, there will be a slightly unsettled weekend in store. For those of you wondering a strong low pressure system will be sitting off to the south in north dakota. Thunderstorms will likely develop in a hot and humid environment in North Dakota on Saturday which with the low pressure system they will move east into the areas of Minnesota. 

Showers are likely on Saturday and saturday night with thunderstorms from Minnesota moving north and west into Manitoba on Saturday night weakening with some occasional rumbles of thunder possible overnight into Sunday morning. A large low will pivot and move north on Sunday this low is a bit weird in how it will move, it almost will look like a mini hurricane on sattelite. Remnant showers and thunderstorms may continue over into Sunday morning. Showers scattered in nature will likely persist into Sunday afternoon. Best chances are likely south of the international border. Remnant showers are likely across southern sections of the province on Sunday night. Temperatures this weekend will likely be cooler than average unfortunately with temperatures in the teens more than likely for highs and lows. 

Showers and Thunderstorms possible, hot weather returns next week.

This blog will be brief. southern sections in Manitoba will likely experience another day and usettled weather and a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure system moves through a slightly unstable airmass. The details for the weekend will be included in this blog with information on the threat for thunderstorms and hot weather returning next week.

Thursday (convective potential shown above for tomorrow afternoon and evening based on the NAM above): High temperatures for the day on Thursday will rise into the high 20's into the southeast part of Manitoba, with areas behind the cold front seeing values in the mid teens. There is a risk however that not all areas will see these values due to cloudcover in the morning hours. During the morning hours there will be a batch of showers in southwestern Manitoba which may be embedded with thunder. Later during the morning hours there may be some convection remnants in the Interlake region which will move east into Lake Winnipeg and the Nopiming provincial park regions. There may be a chance that those showers could extend into the red River Valley during the early morning hours and if they do they will clear by the afternoon bringing some sunshine and temperatures will rebound into the 20s as I mentioned. Convective available potential energy levels will rise into the high 700 to 1000 joules per kilogram which is the equivalent of minor to moderate instability if thunderstorms develop they will have some shear to work with. Generally in a area of 100 to 200 SRH values should be present which will allow for some storm organization. Because it is so late in the season storms will not be able to intensify at the levels they would have in July so if storms form there will be risk for marginal size hail up to the size of one centimeter or two centimeters there also will be a risk for rainfall amounts of twenty five millimeters to fifty millimeters in heavier storms. Wind gusts will not exceed 80 kilometers an hour in thunderstorms. Thursday night showers and thunderstorms will likely only impact the southeastern part of Manitoba and move into northwestern Ontario after sunsets,overnight low temperatures will drop into the low teens in the southeast at Red River Valley and areas in the southwest will see lows in the high single digits .

Friday: This is when the forecast gets a little bit more interesting a frontal boundary will slide S from northern sections Manitoba into the southern part of the province bringing with it Out ahead of a temperatures in the low 20s and high teens for areas in the lakes Sunny skies are likely for the first half of the afternoon before clouds roll in for the 2nd half of the afternoon. A batch of showers and likely embedded thunderstorms given the time of year we are in we cannot rule out the potential for some thunderstorms as remnant instability sits over the region with values in the 100 to 600 joules per kilogram range. It is not likely that these storms will reach the severe limits just your typical garden variety type thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms may persist into the early evening to mid evening hours on Friday . 

Friday Night: I know those of you are wondering with the frontal system passing into the south despite there being northerly flow temperatures will not drop below 10 degrees for the South Central and SE parts of the province if you are wondering about frost areas of the southwest should be more concerned as clear skies are likely and temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high single digits with areas in more rural regions more susceptible to frost developments this is because cloud cover will likely be in place overnight in SE. 

The Weekend: Temperatures will likely take a little bit of a plunge for the weekend Saturday being the coolest day with high temperatures only reaching the high teens which is around our normal for this time of year. Overnight low temperatures on Saturday night will drop into the mid to high single digits, in the southwest with areas in the red river valley and the southeast in the low teens. On the day Sunday temperatures will rebound into the low 20s, Areas in the southwest may be lucky and could see highs around 24 to about 25 degrees celsius overnight lows will again drop into the low teens to mid for Sunday nights. 

Next week: It appears though a fairly marginal ridge will build into the region which will allow for our temperatures during a week to return into the high 20s at low 30s there is also a possibility that humidity may build in with this as well but not to summertime levels so we may still see the potential for some instability building in there will be really no significant level of energy for severe thunderstorms so we're looking at more typical fall dry heat. Overnight lows will be in the mid to high teens as well. 

Cool Start To The Week, Frost Possible. Signs of above normal temperatures returning. :-)

 Southern sections of Manitoba will be experiencing a cooler than average next few days before potentially hotter and more unsettled weather returns, this blog will cover the outlook for Tuesday/Wednesday. There will be a risk of frost tonight as well. So details about this will definitely be brought up. 

Tonight: Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low single digits tonight, there is a possibility that some areas of southern Manitoba may see lows below 0C. High pressure will build south into northwestern Ontario tonight bringing a very cool airmass for this time of year. 

Tuesday: A southerly flow will return for the day on Tuesday with high pressure moving east, temperatures will return to normal daytime highs in the low 20's and mid 20's in western Manitoba. Below Normal values again will likely return on Tuesday night which is of concern because frost this time of year is not really expected, temperatures will drop again into the low to mid single digits. I do miss waking up to high temperatures in the teens. Fall is coming. 

Wednesday: A warm front will move in on Wednesday with a increasing amount of cloudcover, high temperatures will reach the high teens and low 20's. The warmest of the air will be in the southwest part of Manitoba. Wednesday night: A frontal system will move through on Wednesday Night, with a chance for showers and weak thunderstorms especially in western Manitoba areas. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid teens on Wednesday Night, which is typical of lows in July or August. 

The Second half of the week: Warmer than average temperatures in the high 20's may be returning only on the day Thursday with some possible instabilty or thunderstorms, only for a brief period of time.  However it looks like the pattern may take a while to evolve as ridging in the summer time usually develops quicker, than this time of year which may push most of the warmth to next week as heat remains in Saskatchewan. Regardless warmer temperatures are here finally and I hope that we can enjoy the last little bit of the summer.

-Mike McGregor

Heat Ends Thunderstorm Chances return.

 Southern Manitoba experienced a really hot humid weekend with high temperatures in the mid 30s sparking heat warnings across a large section of the prairies. The good news is that this pattern has eased as a trough digging in to the west coast, is beginning to shift east into our region bringing with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  A frontal system will be approaching southern Manitoba this evening and overnight bringing another round of unsettled weather, which will influence our weather for the first half of the week. The unfortunate thing is with our weather pattern this past summer is that we have not received the rainfall we needed, the Gulf of Mexico rarely opened up for moisture source due to the constant cold air being shunted south. I hope that the rain we get tonight will help with this, as we are in a pretty large moisture defecit. 

 (Above: Various Model Solutions are hinting at showers and thunderstorms impacting southern sections of Manitoba tonight, areas of the southeast will more than likely see a large swath of rainfall amounts between 10 to 40mm. 

Monday: This afternoon as I write this there are thunderstorms in eastern Manitoba impacting Lake Winnipeg and Victoria Beach areas there is also some moisture streaming north from Montana into the dakotas, dewpoints in the mid to high teens are likely today. Based on what I am seeing temperatures today will rise into the high 20s in southeastern Manitoba with areas of southwestern Manitoba and the Interlake seeing high temperatures in the low twenties to mid twenties. This afternoon there is a chance for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, the main batch of convection will come in later on tonight. This afternoon there is a chance for some severe thunderstorms in southeastern portions of Manitoba not including the city Winnipeg as well with capping in place storms may be unable to develop until later on when the cold front interacts with the instability Of 1000 joules per kilogram available for storms . The one thing I'm noticing on the latest HRR R model run is that a chance of convection appears to develop in southwestern Manitoba moving into the Red River Valley by the evening. Some of which of them could be severe I will have to monitor that as the HRRRR is the only model run depicting a multi cell or supercell developing by evening in the southwest. 

Tonight: There will be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms in southern Manitoba, initially there will be thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba with only isolated chances and some of them may be severe. another round of thunderstorms and showers are likely to move into southern sections of the province from North Dakota during the overnight. The most severe of thunderstorms occurring south of the international border and through Emerson through Steinbach into southeastern section of the province and the white shell. Areas further west including the Red River Valley and portions of the Pembina Valley and the Interlakes can expect showers with isolated rumbles of Thunder there may be some Heavier rain occurring in the more extreme southern portions of those areas. The RDPS,GFS,GDPS model are the only models hinting at a large swath of 10 to fifty millimeters of rain occurring over the red river valley, areas S and E of Winnipeg may be impacted by the heavier rains as depicted by the NAM and the HRRR model run, with Areas along the Pembina Valley into the Red River valley and Lake Winnipeg seeing amounts between 10 and twenty millimeters. Areas from highway 59 Steinbach Emerson into the kenora Regions can expect ten to twenty five to thirty millimeters of rain. If you're going to look at model data in comparison to all the runs a general swath of 10 to fifty millimeters of rain is possible anywhere from Portage La Prairie East to the Ontario border and south to Emerson, it is nearly impossible to forecast local rainfall amounts in convection so a general amount of precipitation forecast versus exact will help determine the probability of receiving more than twenty mm of rain. Overnight low temperatures are likely to drop behind the cold front with a vast area of western Manitoba seeing lows in the mid teens and areas in the southeast and the mid to high teens as well as the Inter lakes. 

(Rainfall amounts as forecast by the RDPS weather model, note amounts may not be exact, however this is a pretty accurate picture of what the weather pattern is holding.)

Tuesday: Remnant convection will continue during the morning hours in southeastern Manitoba if a majority of the storms remain in extreme southeastern portions as well as northwestern Ontario general showers are expected during the morning with cloud cover during the afternoon clearing by mid to late afternoon hours in the province with cooler temperatures likely for Tuesday. For the day Tuesday high temperatures will likely reach the mid to high teens some areas may surpass 20 degrees if the sun can come out by the afternoon hours as high pressure starts building in. Tuesday Night: The first cold blast of the season is likely with a northerly flow behind the cold front and overnight lows only dropping down into the mid to high single digits For most ( 5 to 10C) some areas in the parklands portions Manitoba may drop down as cold as four degrees Celsius. Areas over the waters and Manitoba Lakes especially by Victoria Beach winnipeg Beach,Gimli Arnes and Delta Beach can expect overnight lows to stay in the mid teens because the waters are warmer this time of year. 

Wednesday: High temperatures on the day Wednesday will be similar to that of Tuesday with a large section of the province seeing highs in the mid to high teens some areas especially by dolphin and the parklands will see highs around 20 degrees there will be a little bit of heat centered over southern Saskatchewan on Wednesday with that region seeing highs in the high twenties to low thirties. sunny skies are likely on the day Wednesday with very little in the way of humidity. Wednesday Night: Overnight low temperatures on Wednesday night will drop once again down into the high single digits, areas in the Interlakes and parklands however will be under the influence of a warm front so overnight lows will likely drop into the low teens in those regions.

Second Half Of The Week: Data is showing that a through will begin developing over southern Manitoba into Ontario during the second half of the week which will likely bring cooler temperatures I don't see a change in the pattern in this until least middle or too late next week as ridging begins to develop .Another frontal system will move into the province on the day Thursday bring another chance for unsettled weather and showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures for the period will remain in the high teens to low 20's and overnight lows in the mid to high single digits with areas at times dropping into the mid single digits. Fall weather is slowly approaching. 

(If you're wondering where I get my weather information from I use pivotal weather.com as well I use nex lab college of du page meteorology, I use the National Weather Service weather prediction Center for weather frontal systems as well as the aviation weather services maps that pilots use.  I also look at model consensus on weather logics and I use a blend of the Nam HRRR RAP as well as the RDPS model to make weather forecast conclusions.)