Showers and Thunderstorms possible, hot weather returns next week.

This blog will be brief. southern sections in Manitoba will likely experience another day and usettled weather and a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure system moves through a slightly unstable airmass. The details for the weekend will be included in this blog with information on the threat for thunderstorms and hot weather returning next week.

Thursday (convective potential shown above for tomorrow afternoon and evening based on the NAM above): High temperatures for the day on Thursday will rise into the high 20's into the southeast part of Manitoba, with areas behind the cold front seeing values in the mid teens. There is a risk however that not all areas will see these values due to cloudcover in the morning hours. During the morning hours there will be a batch of showers in southwestern Manitoba which may be embedded with thunder. Later during the morning hours there may be some convection remnants in the Interlake region which will move east into Lake Winnipeg and the Nopiming provincial park regions. There may be a chance that those showers could extend into the red River Valley during the early morning hours and if they do they will clear by the afternoon bringing some sunshine and temperatures will rebound into the 20s as I mentioned. Convective available potential energy levels will rise into the high 700 to 1000 joules per kilogram which is the equivalent of minor to moderate instability if thunderstorms develop they will have some shear to work with. Generally in a area of 100 to 200 SRH values should be present which will allow for some storm organization. Because it is so late in the season storms will not be able to intensify at the levels they would have in July so if storms form there will be risk for marginal size hail up to the size of one centimeter or two centimeters there also will be a risk for rainfall amounts of twenty five millimeters to fifty millimeters in heavier storms. Wind gusts will not exceed 80 kilometers an hour in thunderstorms. Thursday night showers and thunderstorms will likely only impact the southeastern part of Manitoba and move into northwestern Ontario after sunsets,overnight low temperatures will drop into the low teens in the southeast at Red River Valley and areas in the southwest will see lows in the high single digits .

Friday: This is when the forecast gets a little bit more interesting a frontal boundary will slide S from northern sections Manitoba into the southern part of the province bringing with it Out ahead of a temperatures in the low 20s and high teens for areas in the lakes Sunny skies are likely for the first half of the afternoon before clouds roll in for the 2nd half of the afternoon. A batch of showers and likely embedded thunderstorms given the time of year we are in we cannot rule out the potential for some thunderstorms as remnant instability sits over the region with values in the 100 to 600 joules per kilogram range. It is not likely that these storms will reach the severe limits just your typical garden variety type thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms may persist into the early evening to mid evening hours on Friday . 

Friday Night: I know those of you are wondering with the frontal system passing into the south despite there being northerly flow temperatures will not drop below 10 degrees for the South Central and SE parts of the province if you are wondering about frost areas of the southwest should be more concerned as clear skies are likely and temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high single digits with areas in more rural regions more susceptible to frost developments this is because cloud cover will likely be in place overnight in SE. 

The Weekend: Temperatures will likely take a little bit of a plunge for the weekend Saturday being the coolest day with high temperatures only reaching the high teens which is around our normal for this time of year. Overnight low temperatures on Saturday night will drop into the mid to high single digits, in the southwest with areas in the red river valley and the southeast in the low teens. On the day Sunday temperatures will rebound into the low 20s, Areas in the southwest may be lucky and could see highs around 24 to about 25 degrees celsius overnight lows will again drop into the low teens to mid for Sunday nights. 

Next week: It appears though a fairly marginal ridge will build into the region which will allow for our temperatures during a week to return into the high 20s at low 30s there is also a possibility that humidity may build in with this as well but not to summertime levels so we may still see the potential for some instability building in there will be really no significant level of energy for severe thunderstorms so we're looking at more typical fall dry heat. Overnight lows will be in the mid to high teens as well.