Heat Ends Thunderstorm Chances return.

 Southern Manitoba experienced a really hot humid weekend with high temperatures in the mid 30s sparking heat warnings across a large section of the prairies. The good news is that this pattern has eased as a trough digging in to the west coast, is beginning to shift east into our region bringing with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  A frontal system will be approaching southern Manitoba this evening and overnight bringing another round of unsettled weather, which will influence our weather for the first half of the week. The unfortunate thing is with our weather pattern this past summer is that we have not received the rainfall we needed, the Gulf of Mexico rarely opened up for moisture source due to the constant cold air being shunted south. I hope that the rain we get tonight will help with this, as we are in a pretty large moisture defecit. 

 (Above: Various Model Solutions are hinting at showers and thunderstorms impacting southern sections of Manitoba tonight, areas of the southeast will more than likely see a large swath of rainfall amounts between 10 to 40mm. 

Monday: This afternoon as I write this there are thunderstorms in eastern Manitoba impacting Lake Winnipeg and Victoria Beach areas there is also some moisture streaming north from Montana into the dakotas, dewpoints in the mid to high teens are likely today. Based on what I am seeing temperatures today will rise into the high 20s in southeastern Manitoba with areas of southwestern Manitoba and the Interlake seeing high temperatures in the low twenties to mid twenties. This afternoon there is a chance for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, the main batch of convection will come in later on tonight. This afternoon there is a chance for some severe thunderstorms in southeastern portions of Manitoba not including the city Winnipeg as well with capping in place storms may be unable to develop until later on when the cold front interacts with the instability Of 1000 joules per kilogram available for storms . The one thing I'm noticing on the latest HRR R model run is that a chance of convection appears to develop in southwestern Manitoba moving into the Red River Valley by the evening. Some of which of them could be severe I will have to monitor that as the HRRRR is the only model run depicting a multi cell or supercell developing by evening in the southwest. 

Tonight: There will be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms in southern Manitoba, initially there will be thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba with only isolated chances and some of them may be severe. another round of thunderstorms and showers are likely to move into southern sections of the province from North Dakota during the overnight. The most severe of thunderstorms occurring south of the international border and through Emerson through Steinbach into southeastern section of the province and the white shell. Areas further west including the Red River Valley and portions of the Pembina Valley and the Interlakes can expect showers with isolated rumbles of Thunder there may be some Heavier rain occurring in the more extreme southern portions of those areas. The RDPS,GFS,GDPS model are the only models hinting at a large swath of 10 to fifty millimeters of rain occurring over the red river valley, areas S and E of Winnipeg may be impacted by the heavier rains as depicted by the NAM and the HRRR model run, with Areas along the Pembina Valley into the Red River valley and Lake Winnipeg seeing amounts between 10 and twenty millimeters. Areas from highway 59 Steinbach Emerson into the kenora Regions can expect ten to twenty five to thirty millimeters of rain. If you're going to look at model data in comparison to all the runs a general swath of 10 to fifty millimeters of rain is possible anywhere from Portage La Prairie East to the Ontario border and south to Emerson, it is nearly impossible to forecast local rainfall amounts in convection so a general amount of precipitation forecast versus exact will help determine the probability of receiving more than twenty mm of rain. Overnight low temperatures are likely to drop behind the cold front with a vast area of western Manitoba seeing lows in the mid teens and areas in the southeast and the mid to high teens as well as the Inter lakes. 

(Rainfall amounts as forecast by the RDPS weather model, note amounts may not be exact, however this is a pretty accurate picture of what the weather pattern is holding.)

Tuesday: Remnant convection will continue during the morning hours in southeastern Manitoba if a majority of the storms remain in extreme southeastern portions as well as northwestern Ontario general showers are expected during the morning with cloud cover during the afternoon clearing by mid to late afternoon hours in the province with cooler temperatures likely for Tuesday. For the day Tuesday high temperatures will likely reach the mid to high teens some areas may surpass 20 degrees if the sun can come out by the afternoon hours as high pressure starts building in. Tuesday Night: The first cold blast of the season is likely with a northerly flow behind the cold front and overnight lows only dropping down into the mid to high single digits For most ( 5 to 10C) some areas in the parklands portions Manitoba may drop down as cold as four degrees Celsius. Areas over the waters and Manitoba Lakes especially by Victoria Beach winnipeg Beach,Gimli Arnes and Delta Beach can expect overnight lows to stay in the mid teens because the waters are warmer this time of year. 

Wednesday: High temperatures on the day Wednesday will be similar to that of Tuesday with a large section of the province seeing highs in the mid to high teens some areas especially by dolphin and the parklands will see highs around 20 degrees there will be a little bit of heat centered over southern Saskatchewan on Wednesday with that region seeing highs in the high twenties to low thirties. sunny skies are likely on the day Wednesday with very little in the way of humidity. Wednesday Night: Overnight low temperatures on Wednesday night will drop once again down into the high single digits, areas in the Interlakes and parklands however will be under the influence of a warm front so overnight lows will likely drop into the low teens in those regions.

Second Half Of The Week: Data is showing that a through will begin developing over southern Manitoba into Ontario during the second half of the week which will likely bring cooler temperatures I don't see a change in the pattern in this until least middle or too late next week as ridging begins to develop .Another frontal system will move into the province on the day Thursday bring another chance for unsettled weather and showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures for the period will remain in the high teens to low 20's and overnight lows in the mid to high single digits with areas at times dropping into the mid single digits. Fall weather is slowly approaching. 

(If you're wondering where I get my weather information from I use pivotal weather.com as well I use nex lab college of du page meteorology, I use the National Weather Service weather prediction Center for weather frontal systems as well as the aviation weather services maps that pilots use.  I also look at model consensus on weather logics and I use a blend of the Nam HRRR RAP as well as the RDPS model to make weather forecast conclusions.)