Shower and Thunderstorm chances return, severe weather again a risk

 Southern Manitoba is at risk again for increased amounts of unsettled weather with the risk of thunderstorms and possible severe thunderstorms. As a large ridge sits off to the south in the central United states a trough of low pressure will cascade over western Canada bringing another area of low pressure which will move into central canada and Manitoba over the next few days. Find out what this means for our weather pattern and temperature pattern as we also expect a strong ridge to build over us this weekend. 

Tonight: A system in Montana and southeastern Saskatchewan will increase the convective potential. Overnight low temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high teens, there is a large area of CAPE into the 1,000 range in southwestern portions of Manitoba. As a result there is a likelihood that thunderstorms will develop in montana and drift north into all areas of western Manitoba. There is a high chance that those areas could see rainfall totals in the 25 to 50mm range, there is also a threat for large hail and damaging winds. I do not see tornadoes at all as a threat. 

Thursday: Thunderstorms will continue in the morning hours in western Manitoba with the highest chances in central Manitoba showers may spread across the south in the morning, potentially preventing storm energy from being able to build up in the afternoon. Hoewever if showers clear by the late morning storm potential may increase.  Latest data right now is also showing clearing coming by the afternoon hours, a trough will sit off to the west in western Manitoba. Ahead of it a large area of moisture will move in from the United states covering much of Manitoba with dewpoint values in the mid to high teens. As a result MUCAPES are forecast to be in the 1,000 to 2,000 J/Kg range, over the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage storms either will only impact eastern Manitoba and the Lake Winnipeg regions or completely hit the red river valley and eastern sections of the province. We will find out more about the threat area in the latest update from environment canada in the morning, based on what I see currently there is a threat for thunderstorms across southern Manitoba on the day Thursday with the southeast at the biggest risk for severe thunderstorms, areas in western Manitoba could have training thunderstorms. TEMPERATURES: Forecast to be in the mid 20's in the southwest and the high 20's and low 30's in the southeast with humidex in the mid to high 30's. 

Thursday Night: Clear skies are forecast again with overnight lows in the mid teens in the southwest and west, areas in the southeast can expect lows in the high teens. (15-18C). Some remnant showers and thunderstorms are possible as the area of low pressure moves into northwestern Ontario. 

Friday: Calm weather is expected and the same for friday night, under the presence of a building ridge of high pressure. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid to high 20's. Friday Night: Overnight lows likely in the mid to high teens with clear skies and a westerly flow likely. This is really good because it will prevent us from seeing significant smoke from filtering in. I dont see any northwesterly flow developing this weekend allowing that as a potential. 

The Weekend (Above): The weather starts becoming more interesting, troughing is likely over the southwestern United States which will create sort of a digging southwards then a extension north and eastwards that will basically allow the jetstream to sit over our region. What that means is there will more than likely be increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, there could be a threat for storms some may be severe. Also the heat runs into Saturday and Sunday as we see high temperatures once again in the high 20's and low 30's. There may or may not be higher levels of humidity that is still to be determined. Regardless an interesting end of meteorlogical summer is likely.