Unsettled Weather Set To Run Over Southern Manitoba

 Southern Sections of Manitoba will be in the crosshairs of remnants of Tropical storm hillary this week, which is unheard of for this part of the world. The upper level flow and jetstream is setup with a large ridge over the northern United States. We are sitting on the north side of that with the main jetstream over top of us, which will increase the chances again for showers and thunderstorms and ridge riding low pressure systems. Find out what that means for us in this weeks blog.

Tuesday: During the day Tuesday, remnants of Tropical storm Hillary will be moving through central areas of Manitoba bringing with it a chance at convection and rainfall with amounts of 5 to 15mm. Cloudy skies are forecast once again across southern Manitoba however that may change as I am seeing some forecast potential of high pressure off to the northeast, despite this a frontal system will sit off to the southwest which may allow for some form of trigger for thunderstorms in southeastern Manitoba during the afternoon and early evening. There will be MUCAPE values in the eastern half of Manitoba in the 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg range which will allow for marginally severe to possibly severe thunderstorms. Temperatures in the southeast part of Manitoba will rise into the mid to high 20's in that region, areas in southwestern Manitoba will however only see high values in the high teens to low 20's. There will be MUCAPE values in the eastern half of Manitoba in the 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg range, not significant shear will be present so if storms do develop they may have some difficulty organizing and they will be very isolatd. Regardless a risk for thunderstorms will be likely across a large portion of southern Manitoba with areas in the southeast at a moderate risk level.

Tuesday Night: Showers or Thunderstorms will exit the province by the evening. Overnight temperatures in the southeast will likely drop into the high teens and areas in the southwest in the mid teens. Cloudy skies will likely remain in place. 

Wednesday: Temperatures on the day Wednesday will even be hotter with high temperatures forecast into the mid to high 20's. The overall picture for the day is that a frontal system will sit off to our south as the ridge drags south, with dewpoint values in the mid to high teens the instability numbers willl only grow into the 700 to 1,500J/Kg range. There will be a risk for thunderstorms some of which may be severe in the afternoon and early evening. Best chances for storms again appear to be in isolated pockets across the south. Nothing organized looks likely, however any storms that form will have the potential to bring large hail and damaging winds. We will monitor this forecast for updates. Overnight clearing can be expected with overall temperatures dropping into the mid teens.

Second Half of the week: More showers and thunderstorms look likely with a few more disturbances moving over the top of the ridge over the United states. Temperatures for this period will remain in the mid to high 20's for highs and lows in the mid to upper teens.