Warm Weather Arriving for the rest of the weekend!! Enjoy :)

Welcome to another update on Manitoba's weather situation, my name is Michael Mcgregor and I work alongside Justin and the weather centre of Manitoba Team as usual. I have your weather update which will cover the rest of the weekend into the beginning part of the week which will cover the days into Wednesday. The overall weather set up this week appears to transition into a ridge over the Canadian Prairie provinces which will allow for a westerly to southerly flow to develop which will increase our overall temperature pattern resulting in Above normal temperatures for the region into the week. The jet stream however appears to be split over the North American continent which will result in majority of the storm systems traveling along the southern branch of the split flow with drier conditions on the north side of the flow. Find out what this means for our overall temperature pattern in this week's blog below. 

I have decided that when writing weather blogs I'll be using model ensembles which is a blend of regional weather models which should give the average for daytime high temperatures if you guys are upset about the forecast outcomes that I have please let me know. outhern sections of the province will likely be under the influence of a trough of low pressure however that does not look to impact our overall weather as it sits over the region. Interestingly this feature will set stationary over the region over the next couple of days which will allow for southwestern parts of Manitoba to be on the backside of this. 

Tonight: Tonight should be a fairly calm night with some cloud and possible fog patches, overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to high minus single digits overnight around -10C. There may be some windchill values in the low minus teens. Typical late January weather. 

Sunday: Much of the region on the day Sunday will begin experiencing the warmth that was forecast earlier this week, unfortunately it is going to result in some local snow melting. This may be our typical Manitoba False Spring. Looking at the latest temperature data, high temperatures will rise into the low plus single digits. There will be sections of the Manitoba lakes where the high temperature values will only rise into the low minus single digits, as the lakes remain frozen. Areas south of the lakes as well will be cooler with highs of -1 to -3C forecast. I am looking at general daytime high temperatures in the 4C to -3C range. Cooler south of the lakes. 

Sunday Night (See above photo for freezing rain threat): What we will have to watch for is a system on the north side of northern Manitoba moving southwards on the north side of the ridge that we will have over our area. What is concerning is that a large area of freezing rain may move through south central and southeastern parts of Manitoba, there will be a possibility of 1-3 hours of this during the overnight hours. I have attached a photo the forecast amounts in inches. Using College of DuPage weather. We will monitor for more information on this potential as the risk draws closer. Overnight low temperatures will sit in the low minus single digits in southeastern Manitoba, -1 to -4C. Areas in the southwest will see temperatures rise into the low plus single digits with advancing warm air from the west, lows of -1 to -3C can be expected by early evening before temperatures rise to 1 to 3C by morning.

The Week Ahead: The week ahead will feature some of the warmest weather we have experienced in weeks, if not since 2023. I have no stats on the weather, however based on previous years this year is eeriley similar to the year 2009-2010, and 2015-2016 with the El Nino those years in the winter months. All those years had unusually warm days in January and February. Regardless I see forecast high temperatures this week, in the low to mid plus single digits (1 to 5C). Overnight lows will be a degree or 2 below zero, if you are lucky in the south some areas in more urban locations may stay above freezing. This trend will continue into the later half of the week. See the video below for some ideas on the persistent warmth. 

Warmer weather, on the horizon. Snow and blowing snow possible on Sunday night.

Good afternoon Manitoba! The cold weather will likely come to an end, over the coming days. I have been looking over recent model data and the latest information will come as good news for you all on here. I am usually expecting colder than average weather this time of year to say the least, that however is looking to change this week as El Nino begins to take over the weather pattern again as the Arctic oscillation has returned to the positive phase. However to start this weekend calm weather in store, the weather may get a bit more unsettled as a brief clipper system is set to travail over the region towards the end of the weekend. Find out what that means for us, and what that will mean for our temperature pattern this weekend into early next week. 

Above: (El Nino Like warmth is back for the week ahead folks, this pattern will persist into the remainder of the month). 

Saturday: Expect mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies, with an increasing area of cloudcover this afternoon and evening in the western half of Manitoba into the red river valley areas this evening. I am not expecting anything in the way of precipitation for a large area of the region, the only concern for flurries I have is the western half of Manitoba into the interlakes from Swan River the Hills of west central Manitoba into the Pegius and Fisher River areas. Today winds will begin picking up out of the south as we sit on the far west end of high pressure (backside of the system). So there may be some periods of blustery winds. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the low to mid teens in areas of western Manitoba, the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba including the interlakes will see a contrast with highs in the mid minus teens, and high minus teens as you get closer to the Minnesota and Ontario border. Windchill values in the low  minus twenties in the west, with mid minus twenties in the south central part of Manitoba. 

Saturday Night: Generally calm and mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely overnight, winds will continue to ride out of the south to southwest, with general wind speeds 20 to 30km/h with gusts up to 60km/h at times. Overnight low temperatures will rise with average temperatures warming into the low minus teens, to mid minus teens. Areas of the southwest will see windchill values in the mid minus teens to high minus teens. However if you live anywhere east of portage la Prairie and east of Melita overnight windchill values will more than likely be in the low minus twenties. 

Sunday: The warmth finally arrives, and this is going to be one of those days a lot of people will look forwards to, it will be a brief taste of what the week will be like. Unfortunately it is going to be one of those days that brings in a batch of unsettled weather. There will be a chance for flurries over the southern half of Manitoba during the day, that isnt coming up on environment Canadas website. Temperatures on Sunday will rise into the low minus teens, and high minus single digits in the southwest and south central part of Manitoba especially if you are south of highway 1. North of that, temperatures will be in the low minus teens. 

(Above) Snowfall accumulations highlighted with the heaviest amounts within the circled area. An inch is only about 2 to 4cm of fresh snow. I detailed the information on the areas affected below. 

Sunday Night: Another round of snow and a risk of freezing rain appears, (albeit breifly for the freezing rain threat over the red river valley and extreme southeast border of MB) on Sunday evening in the red river valley and pembina valley west of Winnipeg, before another round of brief but light to moderate flurries or snow fill in. Heaviest amounts appear to be along highway 1, west to east along a line from Virden to Beausejour with some sections out of that region having a chance for flurries. General accumulations of 5cm are likely, just west of Virden to a trace to 2cm elsewhere. The good news is that we will be escaping another heavy snowfall, this is just a weak clipper system. :-) Overnight low temperatures will fortunately stay in the area they were on Sunday, with low temperature values in the low to mid minus teens. Windchill values may be a bit lower though, not a significant difference however. Winds will blow out of the south though with gusts up to 30 to 40km/h. 

The Week Ahead: As shown in the photo at the top, significant change in temperature values are likely with Manitoba seeing our daily overnight lows and daytime high temperatures rising 7-10C above average in the coming week which means highs in the low minus single digits to the mid minus single digits and overnight lows in the high minus single digits or around -10C. This warmth looks to stick right into the month of March based on tropical tidbits CFSV2 model run. I am pleasently surprised and quite happy about this, there will be a chance for snow on the day Monday before calmer weather arrives for the latter part of the first half of the week. The second half of the week will bring another chance for flurries, however no significant storm systems appear to be in the cards. 

As I usually say with this kind of weather, Il'l take it! Winter is a hard enough season with the lack of sunlight.:-) Makes me Happy. 

-Mike McGregor

Extreme Cold Continuing to Impact southern manitoba

 Southern sections of Manitoba will be experiencing extreme cold over the next few days, current model data is showing a polar vortex sitting over the southern Canadian prairie provinces. 

Temperatures across much of the region going into Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday will be in the high minus teens to low minus 20's for daytime high temperatures with windchill values exceeding the minus 30C to minus 40C mark. Overnight lows will more than likely sit in the minus 30 degree celcius to minus 35C range.  If your wondering why this post will be so short??? I have limited time to share detailed data. However from what I know, the cold we will be experiencing is not a result of the El Nino but a weakened jet stream over the arctic. Here is a snapshot of the extreme cold in a weather model as forecast. I will have a more significant update on the weather pattern on Monday. Word of caution, is that on Sunday morning and Monday morning there is a risk for temperatures to surpass -50C with the windchill in some locations. 

The full alert info from Environment Canada is below: A multi-day episode of very cold wind chills is expected.

Wind chills: -40 to -55. Time span: Friday morning to early next week. Remarks: An arctic air mass continues to bring dangerously cold temperatures to the region. The extreme cold, combined with winds of 15 to 30 km/h, will result in wind chill values ranging from -40 to -55 at times over the coming days. Extreme cold puts everyone at risk. Cover up. Frostbite can develop within minutes on exposed skin, especially with wind chill. If it’s too cold for you to stay outside, it’s too cold for your pet to stay outside. Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia. For more information on cold and your health, visit Manitoba Health at gov.mb.ca/health/publichealth/environmentalhealth/cold.html or call Health Links - Info Santé at 204-788-8200 or toll-free at 1-888-315-9257. Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to MBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #MBStorm.

Stay warm and stay safe! -Mike 

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!! Snow and Colder weather arriving this weekend.

Happy new years everyone, I am so happy to be back with being able to do weather updates. I hope you had a amazing winter holidays. I am also continuing to work with Justin Oretel on Manitoba weather centre. I am one of the team members along with Justin. Anyways some interesting weather is ahead for southern sections of the province as a low pressure system moves in and ushers in a unseasonably cold airmass in behind it. Much of the region already has experienced one of the warmest and driest ever Decembers on record with very little in the way of cold snaps. That pattern looks likely to change as the AO or arctic oscillation switches to negative resulting in a much weaker jetsttream over the northern half of the country. Find out what that means for us below. 

Tonight (above): Snow and flurries will persist over much of southern Manitoba tonight as a low pressure system moves over areas just south of the border, a clipper system tonight will more than likely bring upwards of 5-10cm of snow tonight over areas of the southern half of Manitoba. Interlakes regions will see about 5 to 14cm of snow as a possibility. Areas in eastern Manitoba will likely drop into the high minus single digits. Areas in the western half of Manitoba will also see temperatures in the low to mid minus teens. 

Saturday: Snow should begin to clear the region by the afternoon hours with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies resulting behind the system. Temperatures over the red river valley and eastern Manitoba will more than likely see high temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits. Areas in extreme southwestern Manitoba will see high temperatures above minus 10 degrees Celsius, areas north of highway number two into the interlakes and central parts in Manitoba will see daytime high values below minus 10 degrees Celsius from -10 to -15C Celsius . Saturday night: A much colder airmass will take over with overnight low values in the mid minus teens and some areas if there is enough of a northwest wind may see lows around -20C. 

The reason for this cold blast can be attributed to a weaker jet stream around the poles resulting in cold air filtering south until now that cold has been locked up in Siberia and Russia, this negative Arctic oscilation may be reverting back to positive by the end of January which may help bring the warmth back in , EL nino is still running strong in the pacific. 

Sunday: Warm weather will return on the day Sunday ahead of another area of low pressure that will impact southern Manitoba. Temperatures on the day Sunday will rise into the upper single digits around minus 6 to minus 10 degrees celsius areas north of highway one and the lakes may see high temperature values and the low minus teens. A large swath of snow will move into Western Manitoba and the Interlakes on Sunday afternoon bringing heavy bands of snow at times with a possibility of total accumulations from this weekend rising from nine centimeters to as much as 16 to 20 centimeters in the parklands of western Manitoba into the Interlakes down South into Lake Winnipeg north basin. Snow will also cover areas of the Red River valley and parts of Western, Southwestern Manitoba into southeast Manitoba with only about a trace to two centimeters in those regions Areas of extreme southeastern Manitoba may escape snowfall on Sunday and Sunday evening.. Sunday overnight the cold behind the low pressure system will begin to move across the Prairie provinces including Winnipeg with overnight low values exceeding minus 10 degrees Celsius being below normal for the first time in several weeks, low temperature values will likely drop into the mid to high minus teens with windchill values in the minus twenties .

For those wondering is snowfall total information about snowfall in their region I have attached a snowfall total graphic above with information about how much and where majority of the snow will fall, if you guys have any questions feel free to leave them in the comments section on the weather center of Manitoba. To recap it looks like the main swath of the heavy snowfall will remain north of highway 67 and the Trans Canada Highway over Central Lake Manitoba and Central Lake Winnipeg there is a possibility that this heavy snowfall axis may shift based on where the cold air establishes itself. Usually with snow fall you need extremely cold air and moisture being able to funnel into the system usually in the north side of lows.

The week ahead: The same cold weather persists with periods of more normal temperatures during the day Wednesday. High temperatures in the low to mid teens is more than likely with overnight lows in the upper minus teens and low minus 20's.