Warm Weather Arriving for the rest of the weekend!! Enjoy :)

Welcome to another update on Manitoba's weather situation, my name is Michael Mcgregor and I work alongside Justin and the weather centre of Manitoba Team as usual. I have your weather update which will cover the rest of the weekend into the beginning part of the week which will cover the days into Wednesday. The overall weather set up this week appears to transition into a ridge over the Canadian Prairie provinces which will allow for a westerly to southerly flow to develop which will increase our overall temperature pattern resulting in Above normal temperatures for the region into the week. The jet stream however appears to be split over the North American continent which will result in majority of the storm systems traveling along the southern branch of the split flow with drier conditions on the north side of the flow. Find out what this means for our overall temperature pattern in this week's blog below. 

I have decided that when writing weather blogs I'll be using model ensembles which is a blend of regional weather models which should give the average for daytime high temperatures if you guys are upset about the forecast outcomes that I have please let me know. outhern sections of the province will likely be under the influence of a trough of low pressure however that does not look to impact our overall weather as it sits over the region. Interestingly this feature will set stationary over the region over the next couple of days which will allow for southwestern parts of Manitoba to be on the backside of this. 

Tonight: Tonight should be a fairly calm night with some cloud and possible fog patches, overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to high minus single digits overnight around -10C. There may be some windchill values in the low minus teens. Typical late January weather. 

Sunday: Much of the region on the day Sunday will begin experiencing the warmth that was forecast earlier this week, unfortunately it is going to result in some local snow melting. This may be our typical Manitoba False Spring. Looking at the latest temperature data, high temperatures will rise into the low plus single digits. There will be sections of the Manitoba lakes where the high temperature values will only rise into the low minus single digits, as the lakes remain frozen. Areas south of the lakes as well will be cooler with highs of -1 to -3C forecast. I am looking at general daytime high temperatures in the 4C to -3C range. Cooler south of the lakes. 

Sunday Night (See above photo for freezing rain threat): What we will have to watch for is a system on the north side of northern Manitoba moving southwards on the north side of the ridge that we will have over our area. What is concerning is that a large area of freezing rain may move through south central and southeastern parts of Manitoba, there will be a possibility of 1-3 hours of this during the overnight hours. I have attached a photo the forecast amounts in inches. Using College of DuPage weather. We will monitor for more information on this potential as the risk draws closer. Overnight low temperatures will sit in the low minus single digits in southeastern Manitoba, -1 to -4C. Areas in the southwest will see temperatures rise into the low plus single digits with advancing warm air from the west, lows of -1 to -3C can be expected by early evening before temperatures rise to 1 to 3C by morning.

The Week Ahead: The week ahead will feature some of the warmest weather we have experienced in weeks, if not since 2023. I have no stats on the weather, however based on previous years this year is eeriley similar to the year 2009-2010, and 2015-2016 with the El Nino those years in the winter months. All those years had unusually warm days in January and February. Regardless I see forecast high temperatures this week, in the low to mid plus single digits (1 to 5C). Overnight lows will be a degree or 2 below zero, if you are lucky in the south some areas in more urban locations may stay above freezing. This trend will continue into the later half of the week. See the video below for some ideas on the persistent warmth.