Warmer weather, on the horizon. Snow and blowing snow possible on Sunday night.

Good afternoon Manitoba! The cold weather will likely come to an end, over the coming days. I have been looking over recent model data and the latest information will come as good news for you all on here. I am usually expecting colder than average weather this time of year to say the least, that however is looking to change this week as El Nino begins to take over the weather pattern again as the Arctic oscillation has returned to the positive phase. However to start this weekend calm weather in store, the weather may get a bit more unsettled as a brief clipper system is set to travail over the region towards the end of the weekend. Find out what that means for us, and what that will mean for our temperature pattern this weekend into early next week. 

Above: (El Nino Like warmth is back for the week ahead folks, this pattern will persist into the remainder of the month). 

Saturday: Expect mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies, with an increasing area of cloudcover this afternoon and evening in the western half of Manitoba into the red river valley areas this evening. I am not expecting anything in the way of precipitation for a large area of the region, the only concern for flurries I have is the western half of Manitoba into the interlakes from Swan River the Hills of west central Manitoba into the Pegius and Fisher River areas. Today winds will begin picking up out of the south as we sit on the far west end of high pressure (backside of the system). So there may be some periods of blustery winds. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the low to mid teens in areas of western Manitoba, the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba including the interlakes will see a contrast with highs in the mid minus teens, and high minus teens as you get closer to the Minnesota and Ontario border. Windchill values in the low  minus twenties in the west, with mid minus twenties in the south central part of Manitoba. 

Saturday Night: Generally calm and mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely overnight, winds will continue to ride out of the south to southwest, with general wind speeds 20 to 30km/h with gusts up to 60km/h at times. Overnight low temperatures will rise with average temperatures warming into the low minus teens, to mid minus teens. Areas of the southwest will see windchill values in the mid minus teens to high minus teens. However if you live anywhere east of portage la Prairie and east of Melita overnight windchill values will more than likely be in the low minus twenties. 

Sunday: The warmth finally arrives, and this is going to be one of those days a lot of people will look forwards to, it will be a brief taste of what the week will be like. Unfortunately it is going to be one of those days that brings in a batch of unsettled weather. There will be a chance for flurries over the southern half of Manitoba during the day, that isnt coming up on environment Canadas website. Temperatures on Sunday will rise into the low minus teens, and high minus single digits in the southwest and south central part of Manitoba especially if you are south of highway 1. North of that, temperatures will be in the low minus teens. 

(Above) Snowfall accumulations highlighted with the heaviest amounts within the circled area. An inch is only about 2 to 4cm of fresh snow. I detailed the information on the areas affected below. 

Sunday Night: Another round of snow and a risk of freezing rain appears, (albeit breifly for the freezing rain threat over the red river valley and extreme southeast border of MB) on Sunday evening in the red river valley and pembina valley west of Winnipeg, before another round of brief but light to moderate flurries or snow fill in. Heaviest amounts appear to be along highway 1, west to east along a line from Virden to Beausejour with some sections out of that region having a chance for flurries. General accumulations of 5cm are likely, just west of Virden to a trace to 2cm elsewhere. The good news is that we will be escaping another heavy snowfall, this is just a weak clipper system. :-) Overnight low temperatures will fortunately stay in the area they were on Sunday, with low temperature values in the low to mid minus teens. Windchill values may be a bit lower though, not a significant difference however. Winds will blow out of the south though with gusts up to 30 to 40km/h. 

The Week Ahead: As shown in the photo at the top, significant change in temperature values are likely with Manitoba seeing our daily overnight lows and daytime high temperatures rising 7-10C above average in the coming week which means highs in the low minus single digits to the mid minus single digits and overnight lows in the high minus single digits or around -10C. This warmth looks to stick right into the month of March based on tropical tidbits CFSV2 model run. I am pleasently surprised and quite happy about this, there will be a chance for snow on the day Monday before calmer weather arrives for the latter part of the first half of the week. The second half of the week will bring another chance for flurries, however no significant storm systems appear to be in the cards. 

As I usually say with this kind of weather, Il'l take it! Winter is a hard enough season with the lack of sunlight.:-) Makes me Happy. 

-Mike McGregor