Fast Alberta Clipper expected to Impact Southern Manitoba, extreme cold weather to follow. Bundle Up!

Folks of Southern Manitoba get ready to experience another round of colder than average weather, an Alberta Clipper is poised to move through southern sections of Manitoba including central parts of the prairies which will bring a blast of winter weather before a transition over to much colder than average weather pattern for the week ahead . Find out what this will mean for us in the latest blog. 

Southern Manitoba will be impacted by a clipper system this evening into the overnight. Tonight a warm front will be moving through southern Manitoba along with it a batch of moderate heavy snow will accompany blowing snow moving through the south, with total snowfall amounts by morning accumulating to about five to 10 centimeters especially in the northern red river valley and the interlake regions, there will be a risk of freezing rain as well as the band moves through from west to east during the overnight. General amounts of two to four centimeters can be expected S of the Trans Canada Highway with new model runs showing the heavier snowfall amounts occurring north of highway 1. There will be a risk of freezing rain or freezing drizzle across the South given that temperatures are fairly close to the freezing mark. Overnight low temperatures for the southwest part of the province will rise to above zero by morning with majority of the rest of the South are seeing overnight low temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits generally from 0 to plus two degrees in southwestern Manitoba and areas of the SE seeing overnight low temperatures between minus two to minus seven degrees Celsius.

During the day on Monday a majority of the South will be in a southerly flow most models are diverging on the overall solution of a warmer air mass enveloping much of southern Manitoba including areas South of the Interlakes. There is a possibility that we could be seeing a swath of temperatures between five and 10 degrees celcius over the red River Valley areas to the east and to the West of the Red River Valley may see temperatures in the mid to high plus single digits. It also appears that the snow and blowing snow will clear the region by the morning hours with a mix of sun and cloud possible by the afternoon. However some of their models are continuing to show mainly cloudy skies during the afternoon so the high temperatures will be highly dependent on how much cloud cover can clear, that is why I'm going to side with a more moderate temperature outlook preferred to the warmer one so I would generally expect that we will not exceed 5 degrees for a majority of the area. 

(Above): A very very cold Arctic air mass is expected to invade Southern Manitoba with overnight low temperatures expected to drop well below normal with the majority of our regions seeing overnight lows in the low to mid minus 20s and areas of the southeast and the high minus teens. There will also be windchill values forecast to be in the low to mid minus 30 degrees celsius range areas north of the Trans Canada Highway can expect to be seeing the worst of the cold with those regions seeing windshield values in the upper minus 30s over the lakes specifically lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg you may be seeing wind chill values around minus 40 degrees Celsius. This is going to be a very cold quick shot of Siberian air which normally does not seem to happen during a El Nino winter. There still is some uncertainty of whether or not environment Canada is going to issue an extreme cold warning for this cold blast however the good news is that this does not appear to be a persistent cold Arctic air outbreak .

Tuesday: The extreme cold appears to likely stay in place with high temperatures on the day Tuesday only staying in the upper to mid minus teens. Areas north of highway 1 will see high temperature values in the low minus 20C range, with the combined windchill it''l feel Closer to the low minus thirties and high minus twenty degrees celsius range there are some areas may escape that and only see low minus twenty degrees Celsius wind chills during the afternoon on Tuesday. Tuesday night: it appears that the extreme cold will stick around with majority of much of southern Manitoba seeing overnight low temperatures in the upper minus 20's and low minus 30's, the colder values appear to be in the interlake regions, there will be widespread lows in the mid to upper minus 30's and low minus 40C range in the extreme southwest part of Manitoba. 

Wednesday: Much of southern Manitoba will be on the start of the reprieve on the day Wednesday with high temperatures finally getting into the well not as warm as it should be but still more typical of late January early February with values in the mid to upper minus teens in some areas of the southwest Parklands seeing high temperatures in the low minus twenties. There would still be a westerly wind which will help moderate the overall temperatures however I'm not seeing much of a change in the upper atmospheric pattern which will allow for that warmth to return. Overall windchill values in the low minus 20's are likely with colder than -25C values likely in the parklands of Manitoba. Overnight low values on Tuesday night will likely drop down into the low minus 20s in southeastern Manitoba and the upper minus teens in southwestern parts of Manitoba windshield values will be in the minus 30s with upper minus twenty wind chills in the southwest .

Second Half Of the Week: Much warmer air will likely infiltrate southern sections of Manitoba Thursday into Friday with a return of a westerly flow aloft overall highs will return back to where they have been for the last couple of weeks, with values in the low to mid minus single digits and some regions likely having a shot of seeing temperatures above 0C.  there are no signs that the cold weather we are getting this week will persist into the weekend. There is also strong confidence based on the ECMWF HI Res model of this warm weather pattern sticking around, other models have been unable to capture the warmth that we have been seeing over the last few months, its been one of those winters where Manitoba has been under the grips of a pretty strong El Nino weather pattern. Which is actually why I was going to quickly mention that, if it wasn't for El Nino the extreme cold occurring this week would have been a pretty regular ocassion across our region. 

Winter wallop coming to southern Manitoba, cooler temperatures to follow.

 Once again southern Manitoba is set to be impacted by another Colorado system which will impact parts of the region From tonight into Thursday evening and early Friday, the details of this system are finally becoming clearer with a definite possibility of southwestern parts of Manitoba experiencing the brunt of the system with areas of the SE and S central part of the province seeing rain mixed with snow with very little snowfall accumulations. This will put an end to our mild temperature pattern that we've been experiencing however if you're looking for some hope there is longer days on the horizon as we near spring.

(Above: Southern manitoba is looking to be impacted by a strong low pressure system, with snow and rain eneveloping a large portion of Manitoba).

This evening: a A low pressure system will begin to move into South Central and southwestern parts of Manitoba areas of the southwest can expect to see a swath of heavy snow with snow and blowing snow. Areas of the southwest will be the hardest hit during the overnight. With a majority of the snow falling from a southwest to NE line from SW Manitoba to Dauphin including Brandon, Neepawa, Russell, Riding Mountain, and the Interlake portions of the province up to Ashern and Hecla the rain snow line will set up just to the West of Winnipeg where below freezing temperatures will be situated to the west of the Red River valley which will allow that areas of the southeast part of the province will get mostly rain during the overnight. A general five to ten millimeters of rain can be expected in southeastern parts of Manitoba including the Red River Valley into the morning hours. By the morning hours of General 5 to 10cm of snow is probable in the Western half of Manitoba into the interlakes. Overnight low temperatures tonight will remain below From areas west of Portageville Prairie including all of Western Manitoba and Lake Manitoba, so values between minus 2 to minus 5 degrees celsius is possible overnight. Areas of southeastern and south central Manitoba however will be remain above zero for night lobes with values between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius the further east you go it will be warmer

Thursday in regards to the heavy snowfall there is a possibility that some parts of Southwest Manitoba into the interleaves could possibly receive 10 to 25 centimeters of snow in small pockets models are not really agreeing on full amounts however there may be pockets of heavier precipitation that fall specifically in the Interlake regions. The NAM model is suggesting a broad swath of 15 to 25 centimeters of snow whereas other models are suggesting five to fifteen centimeters and heavier localized snowfall amounts of twenty to twenty five centimeters of snow. This will be the complete total snowfall amounts not a additional 25 centimetres of snow that has already fallen so you guys are wanting to see the full amounts of expected precipitation including rain and snow have a look at the weather graphic that I have attached above this post . There’s a possibility of seeing pockets of heavier than 5cm accumulation in the pembina valley into the red river valley. Snowfall warnings are in place for western Manitoba with amounts of 10 to 15cm or more. Eastern Manitoba special weather statements are in place for a rain and snow mix. On Thursday rain will begin to transition into snow in parts of southeastern Manitoba shortly after the lunch hour as cold air begins to wrap around the backside of the system, this will reduce the overall amounts of snow in the southeast with only about five centimeters of snow expected where areas to the west of Winnipeg may receive upwards of ten centimeters. The system is very tricky so forecasting total snowfall amounts is nearly impossible fora given radius or coordinates so if you guys need to know about the forecast for your area check out weather.gc.ca for information on the upcoming winter storm. Thursday high temperatures in the east will be still in the upper side of freezing with over all high temperatures in the lower single digits around zero to 4 degrees Celsius. Areas of the west will see high temperatures in the mid to low minus single digits. 

Thursday night the backside of the pressure system will begin to move into all parts of the province as a result we will be on the east side or the West side of the low pressure system, this will end up resulting in strong northwest or northeast winds depending on where you are in the province snow and blowing snow Only in areas of southeastern Manitoba can expect to be under the presence of snow and blowing snow this will be a possibility with reduced visibility. Snowfall accumulations for the SE part of Manitoba will be meager compared to areas of the southwest part of the province, models are divided on the total snowfall amounts however a general consensus at the moment shows about 3 to 5+ centimeters of snow for areas of southeast part of the province given the fact that majority of the moisture will be dropped on the west side of the province. Overnight low temperatures on Thursday night in south central parts of Manitoba just west of Winnipeg will drop into the lower side of the minus single digit value is some areas may also see low minus teens between minus 9 to minus 14 degrees Celsius areas outside of that in the southwest and southeast ports of the province will likely see values in the upper minus single digits from minus 6 to - 9 degrees Celsius.

Friday should be a much calmer day as low pressure system departs into northwest ern Ontario this is good news as the system will not stay for longer than a day and a half, remnant the flurries are possible over parts of South Central and southeastern Manitoba. If anyone is looking for sunshine Friday is the day for that western parts in Manitoba will be under a stable air mass, Western Manitoba should be basking in Sun however parts of the South including the Red River valley and eastern Manitoba may be experiencing the opposite with periods of sun and cloud. North winds are likely on Friday With temperatures over the day on Friday reaching the upper minus single digits in the Interleakes and areas south of that in the mid minus single digits.

The weekend: It appears likely that Manitoba will finally experience the much calmer weather pattern will be on the west side of high pressure so we will experience a northerly flow as a result it will be much cooler than compared to previous couple of weeks. High temperatures on the weekend will be in the mid to high minus Single digits areas of the interlake parts of the province however will be in the low minus teens for the day on Saturday and Sunday. A more typical February like pattern will be setting up over the weekends which will likely persist since the week, high temperature values in the mid to high minus single digits for daytime highs and for overnight lows in the low to mid minus teens with windshield values in the upper minus teens.