Severe Weather Threat arriving this evening, break from heat and humidity on the way.

 Hello folks I have a update on a pretty substantial weather threat this afternoon and evening we are in for a wild ride not only today but later this week a large ridge of high pressure has built up over the central United States and as a result we are in the north side of this likely getting multiple areas of low pressure over the N top of this ridge which will result in multiple severe weather chances. We have details on what could be a very active evening across southern sections of Manitoba before a quieter weather pattern establishes itself. Have a look and get into the details of what could be a stormy end to our week on our Saturday today.

Today a hot and humid air mass will be sitting over southern sections in Manitoba including the city of Winnipeg areas that are in the zone will see high temperatures already for our day today with values in the upper 20s and low 30s, there will be an increased risk for a general area ahead of a cold front to bring severe weather potential this evening. Looking over the generalized convective available potential energy values this area will be seeing between 2000 to 4000 joules per kilogram of CAPE. Shear on the other hand that does look to be moderate with 20 to 30 knots of shear likely with a possibility of 40 knots of shear in some sections. What this means for our part of the province is that there will be a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms during the evening. A likelihood of initially discrete supercell thunderstorms. I'm looking at the general risk area right now at an area between Portage La Prairie towards the international border by Pilot Mound, with an extension East into the white shell N into east central Manitoba where Bisset west to the Interlakes which includes the city of Winnipeg. I have attached a couple of model suggesti, ons above these are only an idea of what could happen in the atmosphere, however when severe thunderstorms or if severe thunderstorms develop these thunderstorms be capable of bringing up hail to the size of golf balls or larger, 110 kilometer hour wind gusts, rainfall in excess of fifty millimeters an hour or more, and a isolated tornado threats. What I am looking over right now is current mesoscale analysis data, and that suggests right now that there is building instability coming in from the United States that will likely create a potential trigger as we head into the evening. This is nothing to get excited about this is just a suggestion as to what could happen this evening so be weather aware, if you were in any weather alerts later on tonight stay tuned to Environment Canada for information. As the discrete severe thunderstorms develop they will likely transpire into a squall line by the evening racing E into the white shell so if you are in the Falcon Lake or in the vicinity of Kenora or eastern Manitoba by Beausejour and Lac Du Bonnet. Bottom line these could be some powerful storms, stay safe!!

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to high teens with some areas of the southeast only dropping into the upper teens near 20 degrees Celsius, newer weather model runs are suggesting a second round of storms for extreme southeastern Manitoba during the overnight. If storms do move through that part of the province they will be severe with up to the potential for large hail and damaging winds however the tornado threat will be minimized in this environment given that the main instability will be off to the West during the evening. 

Sunday should be a much calmer day as we enter a northwesterly flow behind the low pressure system temperatures will be also beyond the cooler side with a little bit less humidity forecast, temperatures will rise into the upper twenties with, similar cooler temperatures likely overnight with lows dropping into the mid to upper teens. 

More unsettled weather is likely for the day on Monday-Wednesday with multiple chances at showers and thunderstorms. The details however are still needing to be worked out for these days, as we wait on new model data giving us a better idea of what to expect with these low pressure systems. 

Another threat of severe weather likely this evening into the overnight.

Good afternoon everyone I am going to do something a little bit different today. I know that you want a sneak peek at today’s weather and the weekend, however given the fact that we are dealing with a significant threat for severe thunderstorms in southern sections of Manitoba I will be writing a separate Outlook for these thunderstorms and the weekend forecast will be followed later in a separate blog. 

(One of the many weather models suggesting a severe weather event tonight in southern Manitoba if you guys are wondering the timing of this system the above photo suggests a super soldier to the east of Brandon by about 7 to 10P M with a squall line to the west of that. This is just one of the many possible outcomes for the event tonight with the cold front moving in.)

Today will be one of those days to watch for possibility of severe weather. An extremely hot and humid air mass will be sitting over southern sections of Manitoba this afternoon as already has reached temperatures into the upper 20s and low 30s. Humidx values have been reaching the upper 30s and low 40s as well dew point temperatures this afternoon have been rising steadily into the upper teens in low 20s as a result we are seeing general most unstable cape values between 1000 to 4000 joules per kilogram the highest level of sheer exist in southwestern Manitoba where super so complicated values at the moment are between 10 and 12. So it does look like moisture and instability is not a problem however on the side where sheer is it is a bit weaker as you move off to the east in eastern Manitoba. As a result tornadoes are not as likely in southeastern Manitoba as they are in southwestern Manitoba during the early development of thunderstorms. Only about 30 to 50 knots of sheer is likely and the lower end of shear is more than likely after sunset. As I write this at 4:50 PM the cold front is currently situated in western Manitoba right on the Saskatchewan Manitoba border along with a through ahead of it if this moves into the province later this afternoon it's the evening depending on when the cap roads there will be likely hood of widespread severe thunderstorms developing in the western half of Manitoba or eastern Saskatchewan. Models are currently all over the place which puts this forecast in a little bit of a fritz.

Based on what I am seeing in the models a area of isolated super cells are possible in areas of southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan during the early evening hours into the mid to late evening and then there is a possibility further east of some severe thunderstorms popping up over the Interlake and Red River valley regions west to Portage La Prairie. Further to the West an area of super cell thunderstorms is possible with up to tennis ball sized hail and wind gusts up to one hundred ten kilometres an hour and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. This will be in the high risk area as shown in the risk map above this one environment Canada has a high risk area of for the dauphin and Brandon area .After this period of thunderstorms, they will then likely organize into a complex of thunderstorms which will move east southeast through the evening into the overnight. There is a possibility that these thunderstorms may hold off until shortly after the 9 to 10:00 PM. That is the case the Red River valley and areas further east will not see these thunderstorms until twelve to three AM.. Based on environment Canada's forecast a slight risk of severe storms is likely with wind gusts up to 110 kilometres an hour in thunderstorms with up to three to six centimeter hail again this could also be lower given the fact that these are just estimates based on the instability that is available. 

Here are the agreeing weather models just to the below the bottom of this.

The only model that is disagreeing is the HRRR and  The NA MNEST model at 18Z where both show a storm complex forming over Winnipeg then a squall moving east into the area that was affected with weakened thunderstorms. I have decided not to show this as there is a strong cap over the Winnipeg region right now and I do not foresee any storms forming within this region before sunset as the model has suggested. This is one of those forecasts where I had to rely on the severe weather parameters to come up with a conclusion and based on what I have seen with severe weather behavior is that there is always super cell thunderstorms which develop and then there is usually a coinciding factor along cold front which is what is today's set up with the potential for a squall I have attached some photos above of the simulated radar imagery. This is only an example of what could happen not a hundred percent certain. Given the vast uncertainty and timing and location of fronts. Bottom line severe storms are likely in the environment currently. 

Temperatures for the evening into the overnight will likely drop behind this cold front if you do not experience thunderstorms temperatures may remain mild until the frontal passage happens during the overnight, I see wide ranging temperatures between fifteen and twenty two degrees celsius with the cooler temperature is likely over the Manitoba Lakes. A more detailed forecast will be on the way this evening for the outlook for Saturday and Sunday heading into the first half of the week I am just awaiting new model runs. Stay alert to any new weather alerts that get posted and also ensure that you have a way to receive alerts and you can also follow the weather centre in Manitoba where we will be posting information on severe weather that occurs.