Severe Weather Threat arriving this evening, break from heat and humidity on the way.

 Hello folks I have a update on a pretty substantial weather threat this afternoon and evening we are in for a wild ride not only today but later this week a large ridge of high pressure has built up over the central United States and as a result we are in the north side of this likely getting multiple areas of low pressure over the N top of this ridge which will result in multiple severe weather chances. We have details on what could be a very active evening across southern sections of Manitoba before a quieter weather pattern establishes itself. Have a look and get into the details of what could be a stormy end to our week on our Saturday today.

Today a hot and humid air mass will be sitting over southern sections in Manitoba including the city of Winnipeg areas that are in the zone will see high temperatures already for our day today with values in the upper 20s and low 30s, there will be an increased risk for a general area ahead of a cold front to bring severe weather potential this evening. Looking over the generalized convective available potential energy values this area will be seeing between 2000 to 4000 joules per kilogram of CAPE. Shear on the other hand that does look to be moderate with 20 to 30 knots of shear likely with a possibility of 40 knots of shear in some sections. What this means for our part of the province is that there will be a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms during the evening. A likelihood of initially discrete supercell thunderstorms. I'm looking at the general risk area right now at an area between Portage La Prairie towards the international border by Pilot Mound, with an extension East into the white shell N into east central Manitoba where Bisset west to the Interlakes which includes the city of Winnipeg. I have attached a couple of model suggesti, ons above these are only an idea of what could happen in the atmosphere, however when severe thunderstorms or if severe thunderstorms develop these thunderstorms be capable of bringing up hail to the size of golf balls or larger, 110 kilometer hour wind gusts, rainfall in excess of fifty millimeters an hour or more, and a isolated tornado threats. What I am looking over right now is current mesoscale analysis data, and that suggests right now that there is building instability coming in from the United States that will likely create a potential trigger as we head into the evening. This is nothing to get excited about this is just a suggestion as to what could happen this evening so be weather aware, if you were in any weather alerts later on tonight stay tuned to Environment Canada for information. As the discrete severe thunderstorms develop they will likely transpire into a squall line by the evening racing E into the white shell so if you are in the Falcon Lake or in the vicinity of Kenora or eastern Manitoba by Beausejour and Lac Du Bonnet. Bottom line these could be some powerful storms, stay safe!!

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to high teens with some areas of the southeast only dropping into the upper teens near 20 degrees Celsius, newer weather model runs are suggesting a second round of storms for extreme southeastern Manitoba during the overnight. If storms do move through that part of the province they will be severe with up to the potential for large hail and damaging winds however the tornado threat will be minimized in this environment given that the main instability will be off to the West during the evening. 

Sunday should be a much calmer day as we enter a northwesterly flow behind the low pressure system temperatures will be also beyond the cooler side with a little bit less humidity forecast, temperatures will rise into the upper twenties with, similar cooler temperatures likely overnight with lows dropping into the mid to upper teens. 

More unsettled weather is likely for the day on Monday-Wednesday with multiple chances at showers and thunderstorms. The details however are still needing to be worked out for these days, as we wait on new model data giving us a better idea of what to expect with these low pressure systems.