Another threat of severe weather likely this evening into the overnight.

Good afternoon everyone I am going to do something a little bit different today. I know that you want a sneak peek at today’s weather and the weekend, however given the fact that we are dealing with a significant threat for severe thunderstorms in southern sections of Manitoba I will be writing a separate Outlook for these thunderstorms and the weekend forecast will be followed later in a separate blog. 

(One of the many weather models suggesting a severe weather event tonight in southern Manitoba if you guys are wondering the timing of this system the above photo suggests a super soldier to the east of Brandon by about 7 to 10P M with a squall line to the west of that. This is just one of the many possible outcomes for the event tonight with the cold front moving in.)

Today will be one of those days to watch for possibility of severe weather. An extremely hot and humid air mass will be sitting over southern sections of Manitoba this afternoon as already has reached temperatures into the upper 20s and low 30s. Humidx values have been reaching the upper 30s and low 40s as well dew point temperatures this afternoon have been rising steadily into the upper teens in low 20s as a result we are seeing general most unstable cape values between 1000 to 4000 joules per kilogram the highest level of sheer exist in southwestern Manitoba where super so complicated values at the moment are between 10 and 12. So it does look like moisture and instability is not a problem however on the side where sheer is it is a bit weaker as you move off to the east in eastern Manitoba. As a result tornadoes are not as likely in southeastern Manitoba as they are in southwestern Manitoba during the early development of thunderstorms. Only about 30 to 50 knots of sheer is likely and the lower end of shear is more than likely after sunset. As I write this at 4:50 PM the cold front is currently situated in western Manitoba right on the Saskatchewan Manitoba border along with a through ahead of it if this moves into the province later this afternoon it's the evening depending on when the cap roads there will be likely hood of widespread severe thunderstorms developing in the western half of Manitoba or eastern Saskatchewan. Models are currently all over the place which puts this forecast in a little bit of a fritz.

Based on what I am seeing in the models a area of isolated super cells are possible in areas of southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan during the early evening hours into the mid to late evening and then there is a possibility further east of some severe thunderstorms popping up over the Interlake and Red River valley regions west to Portage La Prairie. Further to the West an area of super cell thunderstorms is possible with up to tennis ball sized hail and wind gusts up to one hundred ten kilometres an hour and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. This will be in the high risk area as shown in the risk map above this one environment Canada has a high risk area of for the dauphin and Brandon area .After this period of thunderstorms, they will then likely organize into a complex of thunderstorms which will move east southeast through the evening into the overnight. There is a possibility that these thunderstorms may hold off until shortly after the 9 to 10:00 PM. That is the case the Red River valley and areas further east will not see these thunderstorms until twelve to three AM.. Based on environment Canada's forecast a slight risk of severe storms is likely with wind gusts up to 110 kilometres an hour in thunderstorms with up to three to six centimeter hail again this could also be lower given the fact that these are just estimates based on the instability that is available. 

Here are the agreeing weather models just to the below the bottom of this.

The only model that is disagreeing is the HRRR and  The NA MNEST model at 18Z where both show a storm complex forming over Winnipeg then a squall moving east into the area that was affected with weakened thunderstorms. I have decided not to show this as there is a strong cap over the Winnipeg region right now and I do not foresee any storms forming within this region before sunset as the model has suggested. This is one of those forecasts where I had to rely on the severe weather parameters to come up with a conclusion and based on what I have seen with severe weather behavior is that there is always super cell thunderstorms which develop and then there is usually a coinciding factor along cold front which is what is today's set up with the potential for a squall I have attached some photos above of the simulated radar imagery. This is only an example of what could happen not a hundred percent certain. Given the vast uncertainty and timing and location of fronts. Bottom line severe storms are likely in the environment currently. 

Temperatures for the evening into the overnight will likely drop behind this cold front if you do not experience thunderstorms temperatures may remain mild until the frontal passage happens during the overnight, I see wide ranging temperatures between fifteen and twenty two degrees celsius with the cooler temperature is likely over the Manitoba Lakes. A more detailed forecast will be on the way this evening for the outlook for Saturday and Sunday heading into the first half of the week I am just awaiting new model runs. Stay alert to any new weather alerts that get posted and also ensure that you have a way to receive alerts and you can also follow the weather centre in Manitoba where we will be posting information on severe weather that occurs.