Showers and Thunderstorms likely to end the week.

 Hey everyone it’s Mike with another weather update, looks like another round of potentially wet and stormy weather is likely over southern Manitoba. There will be a possibility of flooding. Find out when and where the heaviest rainfall is likely to occur. 

Tonight: an area of low pressure will be sitting to our south and North Dakota with a large area convection developing in Northwestern, North Dakota. We will be on the north side of the low pressure system in southern Manitoba tonight which will allow for a large area of moisture to pool on the north side of it. A large area of rain will blossom in southwestern Manitoba this evening, which will move east gradually overnight across the south, this will be a heavy convective rainfall so areas that they get under heavier bands of rain may possibly receive up to 50+ mm of rain. Precipitable water values are between one and 2 inches so areas along the American border up to the areas along the Trans Canada highway. The areas may get upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rain or more depending on how intense some of the convector bands get on the north side of the low pressure system. I have attached a photo above of total rainfalls forecast for the system tonight if you are interested. Temperatures tonight will mainly stay quite warm with overnight low values between 10 and 15C. 

Friday: The system should be moving into Northwestern Ontario during the day on Friday however, residual rain and showers will persist over southern and central Manitoba temperatures on the day. Friday will be much cooler with only forecast high values in the mid teens with some areas getting around only as warm as 10°C especially if you’re in western Manitoba. Cloudy skies are likely for a majority of the day as a cold front is over the southern part of the province. There will be a risk as well for final clouds and extreme southwestern Manitoba, and in areas of the Pamina valley. These are cold core funnels so no severe tornado outbreaks are likely.

Friday night: Clearing skies will likely Will be the coolest we’ve experienced with temperatures likely to drop in Southwestern Manitoba between 2 and 6°C areas in south eastern Manitoba, however will likely drop the temperatures in the upper single digits and low teens.

Saturday: Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper teens on the day with some are in the low 20s possible under sunny skies and calmer weather conditions. 

Saturday night: Calmer, weather conditions will persist no significant weather is forecast temperatures will drop into the upper single digits and low teens around 10°C for most.

Sunday: Southern Manitoba will begin to move on the east side of an area of high-pressure as a result of southerly flow begin to establish itself. the weather will also become more interesting as we get into the overnight period. Temperature is on Sunday will rise into the upper teens and low 20s with the humidity values reaching the upper 20s, there is a possibility of us seeing more thunderstorms. I’m not sure if they’ll be severe at this point however it looks like a cluster of thunderstorms could form over southwestern Manitoba during the late evening into the red river valley by morning hours on Monday 

More unsettled weather is likely as we head into the beginning of the week with more chances of showers and thunderstorms and seasonal temperatures in the mid 20s overnight lows in the teens.