Showers and Thunderstorm Threat return, severe weather possible in southwestern Manitoba.

 Good afternoon everyone good evening everyone I have a update on the weather for the next 24 to 48 hours this will be a brief but informative blog post. We have an interesting next couple of days in store weather wise, the last couple of weeks we have been in a cooler than average weather regime with calmer more stable weather thanks to a persistent northwesterly flow which is basically prevented us from experiencing any gulf moisture moving into the United States eventually coming up to Canada. This weather pattern is likely going to change as we head into the second half of the week. as a area of low pressure moves in from the west. 

The day Wednesday an area of low pressure will be sitting off to our S and North Dakota the main severe weather threat will remain in the Dakotas however on the northern side of the low pressure system during the early afternoon hours an area of convection may blossom in NW North Dakota. Based on what I'm seeing in model runs if we can get some level of clearing during the early afternoon hours especially in western Manitoba convection may be on the stronger side however given the limited instability that is forecast as well as very lack shear there could very well be just strong or subsevere thunderstorms. There is a possibility that the thunderstorms which develop in northwest North Dakota will drift into southwestern Manitoba by afternoon into the Red River valley by the evening hours. If the thunderstorms can hold off until later afternoon in North Dakota they may be on the stronger side as daytime heating will likely allow for more instability to build up if that does become the case we could be looking at isolated severe thunderstorms however because the models are agreeing on a afternoon solution I do not see severe thunderstorms being a widespread threat. Whether or not the thunderstorms are able to sustain themselves by the time they get into the valley is yet to be seen as most models show weakening trend by the time they enter the that region. Regardless temperatures for majority of southeastern Manitoba will be rising into the mid to high 20s areas that get rain during the afternoon will only rise into the low 20s. 

Overnight into the day on Thursday fairly unsettled weather will continue into areas of South Central and southeastern Manitoba with a possibility of seeing more thunderstorms and scattered showers again thunderstorms will likely be very weak with marginally small hail at times, the HRDPS model is suggesting a northward track of convection into the Red River valley by the morning hours will be interesting to see if this continues in future model trends bottom line there is an increase risk for thunderstorms in eastern Manitoba during the evening and overnight. Temperatures during the overnight will drop into the mid teens. 

Much calmer weather pattern is likely for the day on Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back into the region. Another day of unsettled weather looks likely for our region come the weekend as another area of low pressure builds in into the eastern Prairie provinces by Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures for the period between Wednesday and Saturday will be in the mid to high 20s with the exception of low 30s on the day Saturday and Sunday, overnight low temperatures will likely again remain in the mid to high teens.