Severe Weather Threat Arrives

Good evening folks of Manitoba we have some severe weather to talk about right now. As I write this right now, we have a complex of storms in the lakes and western Manitoba. We are looking at a threat of severe weather likely for southern Manitoba tonight into afternoon tomorrow this will be a very interesting 24 to 48 hour. Time frame there will be a threat for this active weather to continue into, our day Monday will be brief and quick, but will touch on some very important points that you need to know for the rest of the weekend . 

(Environment Canadas Severe weather risk forecast above for the day on Sunday. )

Tonight extremely humid conditions are forecast for southern Manitoba as a tropical air mass moves in from the United States. Dewpoint temperatures will be rising between 15 to 22°C, already high levels of instability has been developing in southwestern Manitoba with 2,000JKG of CAPE. This area is primed for a threat of severe thunderstorms during the overnight time frame. Areas that I’m currently watching are the parklands in the Interlakes parts of Manitoba the RAP model is suggesting that during the overnight timeframe. A squall line will be building in the interlakes which will likely dip into the Winnipeg region shortly after midnight as it rises the west side of the ridge. If this does not happen clear conditions during the overnight in the south mainly during this timeframe, with the possibility of active weather arriving during the morning hours in western Manitoba. Tonight temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20’s with areas in western Manitoba if they get affected by storms will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Tomorrow (Above): Lingering convection will clear out if there is any , the focus will be in the interlake regions as well as the red river valley as this may be a significant squall there may be a risk for 100-110km/h winds during the morning to early afternoon hours. Looking over latest model data it appears that dew points of 20 to 25C, humidex values of 36-45C. In terms of instability as well 2000-3000 J per kilogram of cape will be available by the late afternoon hours in the red River Valley , there will be a threat for flooding rains, large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat. This is conditional however with a cap in place for most of the day. A cold front will be the trigger as it approaches most of the weather models are showing the highest risk being from portage la prairie to East towards the Ontario border. Environment Canada has majority of the area in a high risk area. 

Sunday Night: Severe potential will decrease as the front moves into northern Ontario, the threat for severe storms may persist into the evening before calming down, the tornado threat will likely fade by the 7pm timeframe.  Clearing skies are likely during the overnight. Temperatures will drop in the mid teens in the southeast with areas in the southwest in the lower teens. 

The week ahead temperatures it look like they are going to be returning to seasonal values with high temperatures on Monday, rising into the mid 20s. Much cooler weather is forecast however, as we approach the day on Tuesday were high temperatures will only reach the mid to high teens. Overnight lows during this timeframe will range between 10 to 18°C with cooler overnight lows likely on Tuesday unsettled weather is possible and thunderstorms possible.