Severe Weather Threat Arrives

Good evening folks of Manitoba we have some severe weather to talk about right now. As I write this right now, we have a complex of storms in the lakes and western Manitoba. We are looking at a threat of severe weather likely for southern Manitoba tonight into afternoon tomorrow this will be a very interesting 24 to 48 hour. Time frame there will be a threat for this active weather to continue into, our day Monday will be brief and quick, but will touch on some very important points that you need to know for the rest of the weekend . 

(Environment Canadas Severe weather risk forecast above for the day on Sunday. )

Tonight extremely humid conditions are forecast for southern Manitoba as a tropical air mass moves in from the United States. Dewpoint temperatures will be rising between 15 to 22°C, already high levels of instability has been developing in southwestern Manitoba with 2,000JKG of CAPE. This area is primed for a threat of severe thunderstorms during the overnight time frame. Areas that I’m currently watching are the parklands in the Interlakes parts of Manitoba the RAP model is suggesting that during the overnight timeframe. A squall line will be building in the interlakes which will likely dip into the Winnipeg region shortly after midnight as it rises the west side of the ridge. If this does not happen clear conditions during the overnight in the south mainly during this timeframe, with the possibility of active weather arriving during the morning hours in western Manitoba. Tonight temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20’s with areas in western Manitoba if they get affected by storms will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Tomorrow (Above): Lingering convection will clear out if there is any , the focus will be in the interlake regions as well as the red river valley as this may be a significant squall there may be a risk for 100-110km/h winds during the morning to early afternoon hours. Looking over latest model data it appears that dew points of 20 to 25C, humidex values of 36-45C. In terms of instability as well 2000-3000 J per kilogram of cape will be available by the late afternoon hours in the red River Valley , there will be a threat for flooding rains, large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat. This is conditional however with a cap in place for most of the day. A cold front will be the trigger as it approaches most of the weather models are showing the highest risk being from portage la prairie to East towards the Ontario border. Environment Canada has majority of the area in a high risk area. 

Sunday Night: Severe potential will decrease as the front moves into northern Ontario, the threat for severe storms may persist into the evening before calming down, the tornado threat will likely fade by the 7pm timeframe.  Clearing skies are likely during the overnight. Temperatures will drop in the mid teens in the southeast with areas in the southwest in the lower teens. 

The week ahead temperatures it look like they are going to be returning to seasonal values with high temperatures on Monday, rising into the mid 20s. Much cooler weather is forecast however, as we approach the day on Tuesday were high temperatures will only reach the mid to high teens. Overnight lows during this timeframe will range between 10 to 18°C with cooler overnight lows likely on Tuesday unsettled weather is possible and thunderstorms possible.

Showers and Thunderstorm Threat return, severe weather possible in southwestern Manitoba.

 Good afternoon everyone good evening everyone I have a update on the weather for the next 24 to 48 hours this will be a brief but informative blog post. We have an interesting next couple of days in store weather wise, the last couple of weeks we have been in a cooler than average weather regime with calmer more stable weather thanks to a persistent northwesterly flow which is basically prevented us from experiencing any gulf moisture moving into the United States eventually coming up to Canada. This weather pattern is likely going to change as we head into the second half of the week. as a area of low pressure moves in from the west. 

The day Wednesday an area of low pressure will be sitting off to our S and North Dakota the main severe weather threat will remain in the Dakotas however on the northern side of the low pressure system during the early afternoon hours an area of convection may blossom in NW North Dakota. Based on what I'm seeing in model runs if we can get some level of clearing during the early afternoon hours especially in western Manitoba convection may be on the stronger side however given the limited instability that is forecast as well as very lack shear there could very well be just strong or subsevere thunderstorms. There is a possibility that the thunderstorms which develop in northwest North Dakota will drift into southwestern Manitoba by afternoon into the Red River valley by the evening hours. If the thunderstorms can hold off until later afternoon in North Dakota they may be on the stronger side as daytime heating will likely allow for more instability to build up if that does become the case we could be looking at isolated severe thunderstorms however because the models are agreeing on a afternoon solution I do not see severe thunderstorms being a widespread threat. Whether or not the thunderstorms are able to sustain themselves by the time they get into the valley is yet to be seen as most models show weakening trend by the time they enter the that region. Regardless temperatures for majority of southeastern Manitoba will be rising into the mid to high 20s areas that get rain during the afternoon will only rise into the low 20s. 

Overnight into the day on Thursday fairly unsettled weather will continue into areas of South Central and southeastern Manitoba with a possibility of seeing more thunderstorms and scattered showers again thunderstorms will likely be very weak with marginally small hail at times, the HRDPS model is suggesting a northward track of convection into the Red River valley by the morning hours will be interesting to see if this continues in future model trends bottom line there is an increase risk for thunderstorms in eastern Manitoba during the evening and overnight. Temperatures during the overnight will drop into the mid teens. 

Much calmer weather pattern is likely for the day on Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back into the region. Another day of unsettled weather looks likely for our region come the weekend as another area of low pressure builds in into the eastern Prairie provinces by Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures for the period between Wednesday and Saturday will be in the mid to high 20s with the exception of low 30s on the day Saturday and Sunday, overnight low temperatures will likely again remain in the mid to high teens.