Significant heat and severe weather on the way Today.

Significant high temperatures and humidex readings will be continuing to effect a large portion of southern Manitoba through the day Saturday and into early Sunday. A cold front sliding into the airmass could make for volatile weather that will flush out the heat and humidity. 

03Z HRRR showing the High humidex readings for much of southern Manitoba and the eastern Prairies. (Dew point and Temperature combined, to create feel like temperatures).

Southern Manitoba is in for a interesting day Saturday heat and humidity will continue to build into the region ahead of a cold front that will be entering areas of the Red River Valley in the evening. Heat warnings are in effect for a large portion of southern Manitoba as the hot and humid airmass is in place. Temperatures in the mid 30’s with dewpoints in the mid 20’s are making humidex readings feel close to the mid 40’s. People are advised to stay inside and keep as cool as possible, if you are to go outside please stay as hydrated and seek shade as much as possible!! The vulnerable including the elderly, children and homeless people are advised to take extra precautions to avoid heat stroke. A cold front will be going through this hot and humid air mass this evening and with it significant severe weather is possible. Looking at the severe weather indicies the moisture we have dewpoints in the low to mid 20’s, Humidex readings in the low 40’s. CAPE of 3,000 to 6,000 J/Kg, Lifted index’s of -9 to -12, and shear on the order of 10 to 40 Knots. The trigger this evening will be the cold front moving east across the Red River Valley into Southeastern Manitoba. There is a weak cap in place this evening in southeastern portions of Manitoba and as the cold front moves east the cap is expected to weaken. Severe thunderstorm development may occur east of the city of Winnipeg this evening if the front moves east fast enough, also depending on the cap. Considering most models will have the cap eroding around 21z (4pm-7pm) in the Red River Valley and east supercell storms may have a window to form within that timeframe. However most models show storms not developing until the front gets to the southeastern portion of Manitoba into NW Ontario by 8pm. Regardless once storms form they will pose a significant risk of becoming supercellular with gusts over 120km/h, Heavy rainfall over 50mm an hour, hail up to the size of golf balls or larger, and potential tornadoes. I’ll continue to update this as needed, in the comments below, on Twitter and Manitoba Weather Centre.

Cooler conditions will arrive for the day tomorrow with temperatures in the mid to high 20’s and humidex readings in the mid 30’s should be with us until mid week, chances at showers and thunderstorms return mid week into late week for us. Stay cool and stay sky aware!

Blog post on Heat and severe weather on the way later today

A heat wave will be coming to Southern Manitoba for the end of the week and severe weather threat  will be arriving on the day Saturday. Heat and Humidity levels will start increasing and humidex readings could be in the mid to high 40’s near 50C. will All forms of severe weather will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening, including Tornadoes, risk area at this moment appears to be the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. I will update you more tomorrow.

Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms to Start the week, moderating and calmer weather later week.

Southern Manitoba will be in for some fairly unsettled weather early this week as a area of low pressure travels over the northern plains, before a area of high pressure settles in for the end of the week.

The day for Tuesday will start off with some remnant cloud cover in southern Manitoba if any thunderstorms in western Manitoba from Saskatchewan overnight makes it into the area, if not partly cloudy to clear skies can be expected. As the day progresses the winds will start to shift from the North to the south and southwest, Moisture: dewpoint temperatures will not increase that much in our area as most of the available gulf moisture moves into North Dakota and far eastern states. Temperatures for the day Tuesday will get into the mid twenties, possibility that the humidex readings along the United states border get into the 30 to 35C, areas further north may be in for only 25 to 30C humidex readings.

As we get into the evening period, a approaching cold front and trowel will slowly move east into areas of central southern Manitoba and much of North Dakota. Looking at the instability with the associated frontal system coming in to a fairly unstable airmass, CAPE values should be in the 500 to 1,000 J/Kg range with lifted index’s ranging from -3 to -5 across a large portion of the southern Half of the province will be sufficient enough to produce thunderstorms that may just approach severe limits for a short time, sub severe to non severe thunderstorms can be expected through the evening and overnight. However given there is a significant amount more of Instability and Shear towards North Dakota there is a higher likelihood of severe weather south of the border. A meso cake (mesoscale convective complex) may occur in Northern Portions of North Dakota tomorrow and if anything develops on the northern fringe of that there is a chance that the southern Red River Valley could be clipped. Potential for thunderstorms in the non severe category could occur further north in n the Winnipeg and northern red River valley areas. Follow in the comments section for potential changes in this outlook!! The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into early Wednesday morning.

Clearing and warmer, stable weather will arrive for the day Thursday as a ridge of high pressure moves into Northern areas of Manitoba, temperatures will remain in the mid to high 20’s under a north to westerly flow. Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms will arrive again at the end of the week through the weekend and into early next week.

Heat and Humidity to Spark Severe Weather, Calmer more seasonal weather midweek.

Significant severe weather is expected to occur, over the coming hours as a warm front drives north out of North Dakota. A trough is also expected to stall over the interlakes region overnight, that will enhance thunderstorm probability from the inter lakes south into areas along and south of the international border.

A moderate risk of severe weather is on tap for all of southern Manitoba over the coming hours, as a frontal wave moves into a warm and unstable airmass, thunderstorms have already started to occur over portions of southwestern Manitoba, with a few storm cells ongoing in the Red River Valley. 

 The ingredients we have for severe Weather tonight (MIST Principle from A Weather Moment)
Moisture- With Dewpoints in the 70's (mid twenties) significant moisture of is available for storms to develop, and drop significant amounts of rainfall over a short period of time when training thunderstorms occur.,
Instability: Instability is there for explosive storm development with CAPES in excess of 2,000 to 3,000 J/Kg, lifted indicies of -6 to -10 , along with Sweat indicies between 300 to 400 will contribute to severe thunderstorm development throughout the night in much of southern Manitoba.
Shear: Shear is lacking a cross a large portion of the province, Storm Relative Helicity is on the order of 200 to 500 m2s2 possibly may contribute to storm organization but shear and significant tornado parameters are too low for tornadoes for the night ahead.
Trigger: Warm front along with a associated trough will provide for a large area of lift throughout the southern part of Manitoba, main area of focus will be along and south of the trans Canada highway including areas of the Inter lakes. 

As a result we expect thunderstorms to continue to form west to east along a warm front, potential for more potent storms to develop, once that occurs later this evening the possibility of a squall line or something down the lines of a multicell convective complex. Large hail up to golf ball size hail, winds in excess of 100 km/h, rainfall amounts of 50mm are possible, along with Frequent Dangerous lightning. Storm threat expected to ease into the overnight period. 

Hello everyone I am back in business and I am out of my depression, spring is Here!! Warmer temperatures are gradually on the way, thanks to a pattern change. 😊😊😊.

Hello everyone I know it’s been a long time since I last put a post up on here. I have been struggling with major depression this past winter and I am greatful that with the weather warming up I can get out and do more and feel better overall. There will be posts whenever weather conditions change or things get interesting. 

Despite it being extremely below normal so far temperature wise this April the normal temperatures are getting into the double digits , we are still lucky to get in the single digit values. His trend is not expected to last much longer. The weather conditions over the next few days will be quite pleasant with no low pressure systems forecast to affect the region through the weekend into early next week. A area of high pressure moving off to the east, once that system moves off to the east it will allow for warmer air to surge in from the pacific. 

Temperatures over the next several days will be gradually warming up as the winds switch to the west-southwest . I expect our daytime high temperatures to start getting into the mid to high single digits as we get into mid week For Friday temperatures from 0 to 5C will be expected,, Saturday expecting highs between 3 and 7 C , Sunday will be in the 2 to 7C range across the south. As for Monday high temperatures will be anywhere from 5 to 10C. 

 With temperatures that high it will put a significant dent in the snow pack. Barely if any snow will be left by the end of the week, once the snow melts and the ground unfreezes it should allow for our temperatures to rise into the double digits and possibly into the low 20s. Until then enjoy the return of spring!!! 

Weekly CFSV2 500mb outlook and Temperature outlook, 3 weeks in advance. (Special Treat). 

Temperature Outlook... 

Severe Thunderstorms likely this evening and overnight

Severe Thunderstorms are expected this evening for a large part of southern Manitoba as a cold front drives into a hot and humid airmass. Severe Thunderstorms Watches and warnings are already in place for western Manitoba, into the interlakes. Watches and warnings may be expanded east as the evening continues. https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb (Details for alerts).A Strong Risk of severe Thunderstorms are expected in much of southwestern Manitoba into the Red River Valley with large hail up to too or possibly golf ball size, damaging winds in excess of 80 to 90km/h and torrential rainfall with intense and dangerous frequent lightning. A odd weak tornado or 2 cannot be ruled out. A smaller risk appears to occur to the east where the storms will be weaker, marginal size hail possibly penny to toonie size hail, moderate to heavy downpours and occasional to Moderate amounts of lightning and wind gusts below 70km/h.





Thunderstorms have already developed in southern Manitoba and several of them in North Dakota which have already become very severe, judging by there movement they are likely going to be moving into Southern Manitoba within the next few hours. Once thunderstorms organize enough there is a possibility they may form into a squall line with Boeing segments potentially allowing for dangerous wind gusts up to 100+km/h large hail up to ping pong ball or golf ball size hail, and heavy rainfall. Dangerous frequent lightning is also possible. Thunderstorms should weaken as they move east into the late evening and overnight. Cooler air should follow behind this as temperatures drop into the low to mid teens. Remember "Large hail can damage property and cause injury. Very strong wind gusts can damage buildings, down trees and blow large vehicles off the road. Intense lightning is likely with any thunderstorm that develops. Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Be prepared for severe weather. Take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.storm.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #MBStorm." https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb8

Another Round of storms likely tonight

Another round of thunderstorms is expected to strike southern Manitoba and it could get quite interesting later this evening. Read to find out more...

A Enhanced risk for severe storms is possible in the Red River Valley with a surrounding slight risk area. A already hot and humid airmass is in place for the remainder of the day today and this evening. A potent cold front will go through Southern Manitoba tonight while stalling out over the Red River valley this evening and overnight. The moisture ahead of this front with dewpoints in the mid to high teens, MLCAPES from 1,000 to 2,000 and MUCAPES 1,500 to 2,500, Lifted Indicies of -4 to -8 and bulk shear of 30 to 45knots will result in potentially severe storms. Supercell storms will begin to develop in the western slight risk area around early evening moving east into the enhanced risk area, after suppertime then they will move northnortheast and build into a squall line (multicell thunderstorms) training along the cold front as they lift NNEwards.  As the storm motion will be slow and storms will train along the front in the Red River Valley flooding will be possible along with the potential for golf ball to tea cup size hail, (as forecast by Skew T graphs) winds in excess of 70km/h and frequent dangerous lightning thus a enhanced risk is favoured for areas of the Red River Valley. The storms will gradually move east into Eastern Manitoba overnight and should weaken gradually as less favourable severe parameters are in place there. A more significant rainfall will be in play the day Sunday into Monday with rainfall amounts as high as 75mm. Will update later on that situation.