Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms to Start the week, moderating and calmer weather later week.

Southern Manitoba will be in for some fairly unsettled weather early this week as a area of low pressure travels over the northern plains, before a area of high pressure settles in for the end of the week.

The day for Tuesday will start off with some remnant cloud cover in southern Manitoba if any thunderstorms in western Manitoba from Saskatchewan overnight makes it into the area, if not partly cloudy to clear skies can be expected. As the day progresses the winds will start to shift from the North to the south and southwest, Moisture: dewpoint temperatures will not increase that much in our area as most of the available gulf moisture moves into North Dakota and far eastern states. Temperatures for the day Tuesday will get into the mid twenties, possibility that the humidex readings along the United states border get into the 30 to 35C, areas further north may be in for only 25 to 30C humidex readings.

As we get into the evening period, a approaching cold front and trowel will slowly move east into areas of central southern Manitoba and much of North Dakota. Looking at the instability with the associated frontal system coming in to a fairly unstable airmass, CAPE values should be in the 500 to 1,000 J/Kg range with lifted index’s ranging from -3 to -5 across a large portion of the southern Half of the province will be sufficient enough to produce thunderstorms that may just approach severe limits for a short time, sub severe to non severe thunderstorms can be expected through the evening and overnight. However given there is a significant amount more of Instability and Shear towards North Dakota there is a higher likelihood of severe weather south of the border. A meso cake (mesoscale convective complex) may occur in Northern Portions of North Dakota tomorrow and if anything develops on the northern fringe of that there is a chance that the southern Red River Valley could be clipped. Potential for thunderstorms in the non severe category could occur further north in n the Winnipeg and northern red River valley areas. Follow in the comments section for potential changes in this outlook!! The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into early Wednesday morning.

Clearing and warmer, stable weather will arrive for the day Thursday as a ridge of high pressure moves into Northern areas of Manitoba, temperatures will remain in the mid to high 20’s under a north to westerly flow. Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms will arrive again at the end of the week through the weekend and into early next week.

Heat and Humidity to Spark Severe Weather, Calmer more seasonal weather midweek.

Significant severe weather is expected to occur, over the coming hours as a warm front drives north out of North Dakota. A trough is also expected to stall over the interlakes region overnight, that will enhance thunderstorm probability from the inter lakes south into areas along and south of the international border.

A moderate risk of severe weather is on tap for all of southern Manitoba over the coming hours, as a frontal wave moves into a warm and unstable airmass, thunderstorms have already started to occur over portions of southwestern Manitoba, with a few storm cells ongoing in the Red River Valley. 

 The ingredients we have for severe Weather tonight (MIST Principle from A Weather Moment)
Moisture- With Dewpoints in the 70's (mid twenties) significant moisture of is available for storms to develop, and drop significant amounts of rainfall over a short period of time when training thunderstorms occur.,
Instability: Instability is there for explosive storm development with CAPES in excess of 2,000 to 3,000 J/Kg, lifted indicies of -6 to -10 , along with Sweat indicies between 300 to 400 will contribute to severe thunderstorm development throughout the night in much of southern Manitoba.
Shear: Shear is lacking a cross a large portion of the province, Storm Relative Helicity is on the order of 200 to 500 m2s2 possibly may contribute to storm organization but shear and significant tornado parameters are too low for tornadoes for the night ahead.
Trigger: Warm front along with a associated trough will provide for a large area of lift throughout the southern part of Manitoba, main area of focus will be along and south of the trans Canada highway including areas of the Inter lakes. 

As a result we expect thunderstorms to continue to form west to east along a warm front, potential for more potent storms to develop, once that occurs later this evening the possibility of a squall line or something down the lines of a multicell convective complex. Large hail up to golf ball size hail, winds in excess of 100 km/h, rainfall amounts of 50mm are possible, along with Frequent Dangerous lightning. Storm threat expected to ease into the overnight period. 

Hello everyone I am back in business and I am out of my depression, spring is Here!! Warmer temperatures are gradually on the way, thanks to a pattern change. 😊😊😊.

Hello everyone I know it’s been a long time since I last put a post up on here. I have been struggling with major depression this past winter and I am greatful that with the weather warming up I can get out and do more and feel better overall. There will be posts whenever weather conditions change or things get interesting. 

Despite it being extremely below normal so far temperature wise this April the normal temperatures are getting into the double digits , we are still lucky to get in the single digit values. His trend is not expected to last much longer. The weather conditions over the next few days will be quite pleasant with no low pressure systems forecast to affect the region through the weekend into early next week. A area of high pressure moving off to the east, once that system moves off to the east it will allow for warmer air to surge in from the pacific. 

Temperatures over the next several days will be gradually warming up as the winds switch to the west-southwest . I expect our daytime high temperatures to start getting into the mid to high single digits as we get into mid week For Friday temperatures from 0 to 5C will be expected,, Saturday expecting highs between 3 and 7 C , Sunday will be in the 2 to 7C range across the south. As for Monday high temperatures will be anywhere from 5 to 10C. 

 With temperatures that high it will put a significant dent in the snow pack. Barely if any snow will be left by the end of the week, once the snow melts and the ground unfreezes it should allow for our temperatures to rise into the double digits and possibly into the low 20s. Until then enjoy the return of spring!!! 

Weekly CFSV2 500mb outlook and Temperature outlook, 3 weeks in advance. (Special Treat). 

Temperature Outlook... 

Severe Thunderstorms likely this evening and overnight

Severe Thunderstorms are expected this evening for a large part of southern Manitoba as a cold front drives into a hot and humid airmass. Severe Thunderstorms Watches and warnings are already in place for western Manitoba, into the interlakes. Watches and warnings may be expanded east as the evening continues. https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb (Details for alerts).A Strong Risk of severe Thunderstorms are expected in much of southwestern Manitoba into the Red River Valley with large hail up to too or possibly golf ball size, damaging winds in excess of 80 to 90km/h and torrential rainfall with intense and dangerous frequent lightning. A odd weak tornado or 2 cannot be ruled out. A smaller risk appears to occur to the east where the storms will be weaker, marginal size hail possibly penny to toonie size hail, moderate to heavy downpours and occasional to Moderate amounts of lightning and wind gusts below 70km/h.





Thunderstorms have already developed in southern Manitoba and several of them in North Dakota which have already become very severe, judging by there movement they are likely going to be moving into Southern Manitoba within the next few hours. Once thunderstorms organize enough there is a possibility they may form into a squall line with Boeing segments potentially allowing for dangerous wind gusts up to 100+km/h large hail up to ping pong ball or golf ball size hail, and heavy rainfall. Dangerous frequent lightning is also possible. Thunderstorms should weaken as they move east into the late evening and overnight. Cooler air should follow behind this as temperatures drop into the low to mid teens. Remember "Large hail can damage property and cause injury. Very strong wind gusts can damage buildings, down trees and blow large vehicles off the road. Intense lightning is likely with any thunderstorm that develops. Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Be prepared for severe weather. Take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.storm.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #MBStorm." https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb8

Another Round of storms likely tonight

Another round of thunderstorms is expected to strike southern Manitoba and it could get quite interesting later this evening. Read to find out more...

A Enhanced risk for severe storms is possible in the Red River Valley with a surrounding slight risk area. A already hot and humid airmass is in place for the remainder of the day today and this evening. A potent cold front will go through Southern Manitoba tonight while stalling out over the Red River valley this evening and overnight. The moisture ahead of this front with dewpoints in the mid to high teens, MLCAPES from 1,000 to 2,000 and MUCAPES 1,500 to 2,500, Lifted Indicies of -4 to -8 and bulk shear of 30 to 45knots will result in potentially severe storms. Supercell storms will begin to develop in the western slight risk area around early evening moving east into the enhanced risk area, after suppertime then they will move northnortheast and build into a squall line (multicell thunderstorms) training along the cold front as they lift NNEwards.  As the storm motion will be slow and storms will train along the front in the Red River Valley flooding will be possible along with the potential for golf ball to tea cup size hail, (as forecast by Skew T graphs) winds in excess of 70km/h and frequent dangerous lightning thus a enhanced risk is favoured for areas of the Red River Valley. The storms will gradually move east into Eastern Manitoba overnight and should weaken gradually as less favourable severe parameters are in place there. A more significant rainfall will be in play the day Sunday into Monday with rainfall amounts as high as 75mm. Will update later on that situation.

Severe Weather Returns Hopefully for the last time this year! :(

The rest of today will be an unusually warm and humid day for late August but nonetheless hopefully the last day we see severe weather because of this consistent stormy pattern all summer. Some are getting tired of it and I am especially.

The severe weather threat today will be along and ahead of a cold front that will be encountering a hot and humid airmass. Areas in the light red have the highest risk for supercell development as it is a Enhanced risk, with the sorrounding risk area in orange a strong to Moderate risk. Here are the ingredients we have today

Massive EHI values west of and including Winnipeg.

Moisture: Dewpoints in the high teens to low 20's, PWATS from 40 to 60mm.
Instability: Lifted Index's from -6 to -10C, MLCAPES from 2,500 J/Kg to 3,500 J/Kg and MUCAPES from 4,000 to 5,100 J/Kg.
Shear: Storm Relative Helicity from 165 to 319m2 s-2, Bulk Shear from 30 to 45 knots, EHI's of 3 to 5.3 which means EF2 to EF5 Tornadoes possible especially from Portage east into the Winnipeg and Emerson areas. SigTor from 1 to 3, best risk for significant tornadoes are along the USA border.
Trigger: Powerful Cold Front going through late afternoon to after midnight.

As a result of these ingredients severe weather will be likely as the front encounters the soupy airmass, Supercells will likely develop in the enhanced risk area and points west and persist as they move eastwards, the risk for tornadoes will be present in the enhanced ( moderate risk areas if they stay surface based). At the moment given the SKEW T Graphs and data by the NAM Tornadoes will be a risk (only if they stay surface based) from Portage La Prairie Eastwards through Winnipeg and into the whiteshell areas south to the USA Border. Strong Tornadoes will be possible as a result of such high CAPES and the shear we have. If storms manage to organize early enough and possibly become elevated the risk will only present itself west of Winnipeg. Regardless storms will organize into a squall line that will impact the Winnipeg and Red River Valley in the mid evening hours (if they are surface based they will pose a tornado threat as well, squall lines can be surface based). The storms will pose a threat for large hail up to softball size, winds in excess of 100km/h, heavy rainfall up to 100mm possible in locales, and dangerous frequent lightning. The storms will swing east southeast into North Dakota in the midnight timeframe. People are urged to follow updates from Manitoba Weather Center and Environment Canada for updates.


Storms will clear overnight leaving behind cooler and sunnier weather for the first half of the week before more heat and storms arrive to start September.

Severe Weather Today, ushering in cooler air.

Today will be another one of those days severe weather will return as a cold front moves into the area and encounters the hot humid airmass. This has very well become the new normal in Manitoba and it is a hard fact to swallow, though all we can do is just take it as it is. Hopefully we can enjoy some warm dry weather in September before summer is over.

There will be another day of severe weather today and it is already starting up in Southwest Manitoba, however this is not the main event. A high risk is present in the southeast part of the province including Winnipeg, areas in the interlakes have a moderate risk of severe weather where high instability levels present. Although a slight risk of severe weather is present further west in the Brandon area into the parklands with ongoing storms today with lesser instability present. A frontal system riding along the ridge will encounter a hot and humid airmass that is in place in the region.

Sufficient moisture will be available for storms today with dewpoints in the high teens and low 20's, along with PWAT values in the 30 to 45mm range. Large instability in the atmosphere will also be present today with Lifted Indicies in the -7 to -11 range, MLCAPE 1,000 in Far Northern South MB to 2,500 and 3,500 in the south as well as MUCAPE 2,000 to 4,000. Bulk Shear values in the 40 to 65knot range and very little EHI. The trigger will be our Cold Front moving through.

Discussion: Severe Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning ahead of a trough and they will move east northeast throughout the day into the interlakes, another cold front will be moving through later in the day today with the hot and humid airmass. It will remain capped for much of the earlier half of the day in moderate to high risk areas with storms struggling to develop, however the cap will slowly erode throughout the day in the Red River Valley and Southeast MB. Once the cold front goes through the cap could be eroded enough for storms to develop especially west of and in the Red River Valley supercells could very develop given extreme instability levels present that are building through the day. In early storm modes all severe weather will be possible from heavy rainfall rates in excess of 40mm flooding will be possible, hail from loonies to tennis balls possible with larger hail possible in southeast MB and the southern Red River Valley  but still a potential for golf balls or smaller in the central and northern Red River Valley in to the interlakes. Winds in excess of 90 to 100km/h, frequent dangerous lightning and tornadoes as possibility in discrete supercells but a small chance compared to what we have seen earlier this year. Once storms organize into a line (depending on where they form) either from west of Winnipeg or east of the city they will pose as mainly a straight line damaging wind threat and hail threat as they move east into the Red River Valley or Northwest Ontario. Storms should clear by late evening to after midnight.

Cooler and drier weather is expected tomorrow into Thursday and the weekend.