Stormy Week On The Way

After what was a quiet weekend in Southern Manitoba with cloudy and cool conditions, we now can expect a return to more unsettled weather. A southwesterly flow will start taking shape over the northern plains with a ridge of high pressure building out in Eastern Canada. As a result the mean stormtrack will establish itself over the southern prairie provinces this week, bringing multiple areas of low pressure with periodic chances at showers and/or thunderstorms. The first wave of showers and possibly thunderstorms can be expected late Monday into early Tuesday (with locally heavy rainfall), as an impulse spreads moisture from the Dakotas. Much drier weather is anticipated through the Middle of the week before we see the arrival of another low pressure system that will bring a more significant chance at rainfall and possibly some strong to severe thunderstorms through the Thursday-Saturday time period.  Those looking for sustained warmth you will likely have very little luck this week! The wet weather looks like it could trek onwards until the 8th of June based on the CFSV2 outlooks, then again this is not unusual for this time of year. On average June is usually the wettest month, as increasingly warmer and humid air creeps north of the border mixing with frontal systems crossing the prairies. Severe weather will become much more likely as we get into mid June.

My Amateur Summer Outlook for 2013

Summer 2013 is on the way and many people are already wondering how the season will turn out after our long winter, glad you asked! 

Before we get to that, we have to deal with the month of June first. It is usually around this time that severe weather starts to arrive as building heat from the United states starts clashing with cool air along frontal systems. Also, don't forget the fact that we can also start seeing heat coming in waves from the states. For example, last year we had gotten quite hot and humid already through the time period of June. Through this June we can expect to see pretty much the same, but a more variable weather pattern is expected as the main storm track situates itself over our region giving us a fair amount of different types of weather. There will be likely periods of warmer than normal temperatures, cooler than normal temperatures and most likely a number of days in a row where we see active weather rolling through as systems march there way across the region. With warmer weather in June we can always anticipate an increase in severe weather as we get into summer.

Temperature Outlook

Summer 2013 will be a fairly nice one for those of you who love heading to the beach, cottage, or camping. Temperatures will not be on the side of below normal so it won't be cold at all, which is great after our long winter. We won't be terribly hot either, we will actually be experiencing a little bit of both; we will be in the near normal zone which means will be dealing with some periods of warmer than usual weather mixed in with colder than normal weather, just like the month of June. We will be experiencing this kind of weather this summer thank's to the abundance of low pressure systems bringing heat and humidity ahead of them and cooler/drier weather behind them. If we have a period where we get upper level ridging and less low pressure systems we might get into a period of sustained warmth but it won't last long, similar to where we had heat in summer of 2012. However, our summer will not be like that at all at this point. Though if you live up in the interlakes expect cooler than normal temperatures to prevail thank's to the ice remnants and cooler than normal waters over North Lake Winnipeg & Manitoba.

Precipitation Outlook

Precipitation through the summer period will be above normal with more severe thunderstorms than normal (like the month of June) especially through areas of southern Manitoba. An abundant amount of low pressure systems will allow building heat & humidity from the USA to clash with the cooler air up North. Picture it as oil and water they don't mix well. This in turn will result in the likelihood of severe weather outbreaks quite frequently, bringing the threat forward for all types of severe weather including tornadoes. The most known types of severe weather include squall lines, bow echoes, derechos, MCS, MCC's, supercells and don't forget tornadoes. Localized flooding could also be a possibility during and after severe thunderstorm events. The most likely period for this active weather will be through the month's of June and July, with the month of August also a possibility. Overall the active summer weather will be sure to bring all of those well known storm chasers into the province, and keep those who chase on a regular basis quite busy! Don't forget all of the weather enthusiasts out there who have been waiting a long time for this to take place. If anyone asks about our Summer ahead, tell them we'll have a variable temperature pattern and wet weather with a bunch of opportunities here and there to take in the sun. 

The pattern for summer could change that it is why I will be watching carefully and updating as needed. In the meantime this is how it look's. (Summer Outlook Information was provided by Brett Anderson of Accuweather, Graphics and expanded thought's were my own)

Possible Rainy End To The Weekend

3km HRRR Radar Image (6am Sunday)

After a rainy start to the weekend will be seeing much of the same for the rest of the weekend only if an area of high pressure doesn't interfere with the push of this low pressure system we are currently experiencing. Throughout the rest of the night tonight expect any rain to clear out with the possibility of more showers & thunderstorms entering southern parts of the province overnight into tomorrow morning. The question is how far North will this rain move? Current indications are that the area of high pressure will keep the rains out of the province, and only let it slide a little north of the border likely affecting areas along a line from Sprague to Pilot Mound mainly south of the TransCanada. Leaving sunny skies for our day tomorrow in the rest of the South Though if that area of high pressure weakens we could be left dealing with a potentially rainy and stormy Sunday because the low itself is much stronger. I have seen a lot forecasts online that quote rains and storms for the day Sunday, we'll have to find out I guess. As we go into Sunday night things will either be clear or we could be dealing with rainshowers as the area of low pressure or high pressure sits near the region. Monday is when we could be seeing more rainfall and or thunderstorms or just plain sunny skies, but if we do get rainfall on Monday things will likely clear out in the evening.

Then we are into much sunnier condition's before another potential of showers and storms comes at the end of the week given latest model runs. So there you have it there is a lot of uncertainity in the latest model runs so I will update in the comments section if needed. Follow the HRRR for latest data and radar simulation's.


In the Long Range an enhanced risk for above normal temperatures and precipitation returns for the region, means that there there will be a higher chance for severe weather/thunderstorms in the coming weeks. That might get me posting more often, we'll see how it turns out!

Arctic Air Set To Invade Southern Manitoba

After a taste of summer like weather over the past couple days, we will now be invaded by stubborn arctic air that doesn't seem to want to stay away. It won't last long though as it looks like we will only be experiencing the brunt of it through the day Saturday. Today looks like it will be very pleasant as temperatures rise into the low to mid teens once again with most likely hitting or surpassing the 15C mark. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of another system for the day tomorrow temperatures will cool to at or just below zero for the night ahead. Tomorrow an area of rain & embedded rumbles of thunder will travel from the parkland's through the interlakes to the southeast during the day, reaching southern parts of the province by mid afternoon, maybe giving us a shot at some well needed rainfall. Once is said and done we could be looking at 5 to 10mm of rainfall as high temperatures rise into the mid teens. A cool down will be on the way Saturday, the coldest of the weekend (high single digits to low double digits) before a moderating trend into week as high's rebound into the high teens, to mid 20's.