Week of Sunshine and Thunderstorms

After what was a stormy weekend here in Winnipeg and southern Manitoba, we will be experiencing a few days where the weather will be wet and stormy in places as we have a couple of shortwaves that will move through. Although it will be stormy a few of our days will be beautiful and we'll have the chance to get out and enjoy it. 

Storms look Possible Tuesday

Going into your day Tuesday it is looking like it is going to be a beautiful day temperatures could exceed 20C and arrive in the mid 20's with dew points close behind because of that we could have dew points of 15 to 19C giving high levels of humidity. 

A frontal system could go through areas of southern Manitoba tomorrow afternoon and given how humid it could be we are looking at thunderstorm development. A Weather Moment mentioned that at the low end we could see small hail and gusty winds or strong to severe storms with a tornado threat and potential damaging storms at the high end. Threat should ease by the evening I will provide updates on Twitter as well as the blog. 

Storms also look likely on Wednesday but not as high as tuesdays chances, highs of 25 to 29C Wednesday.


The long range outlook looks like we could be in for some severe weather this Thursday or Friday as another system comes in from the states, all models have had this in their outlook for the past 4 days and they still yet have to resolve the timing and features as it is important in determining when and where the storms or severe weather will occur. Best bet is Southwest MB first then into the Red River Valley Basin and Eastern Manitoba. Till then temperatures through until June look great and our weather might stay the same in terms of storms but great temperatures right in and around seasonal.

Summer Returns But With Storms

Finally the first hot couple of days are on the way as the warmth returns into SouthMB associated with a airmass from the Gulf of Mexico, however it comes with a price thunderstorms are likely and some could be severe as we go into the weekend. 

For the day ahead there will be a chance of showers and storms out in southwestern areas of southern manitoba and the parklands but they will be weak if and when they form meaning non severe but a few could be stronger. Otherwise clear and sunny skies can be expected with high temperatures in the mid to high 20's but you will be happy to hear that our weather will even be hotter Saturday. 

As for Saturday things get a bit unsettled with our temperatures approaching 30C the heat and humidity will create perfect brewing conditions for thunderstorms all across southern Manitoba some could be severe but given that shear will be present but not high enough storms won't be tornadic but nonetheless they will be elevated. As a result large hail and damaging winds along with heavy rainfall will be likely.The threat will ease by late evening but really be high in the evening, humid conditions in the mid 30's to high 30's will be present Saturday. 

Sunday will be a different story in southern Manitoba a cold front will slice through areas of southern manitoba during the morning sunday and leave behind it instability for storms during the rest of the day Sunday meaning fairly good chances for severe weather on Sunday. I'm not sure about the dynamics but the rest of the day looks good once storms clear by evening. Better weather returns for the week, however things are looking more stormy come the tuesday and wednesday timeframe. Heat continues as we go through the rest of the month although a little cooler nowhere near below normal.

Warming Weather On The Way (Pictures of the system will be added on Sunday

After what has been a difficult past three months our weather will finally be taking a turn for the better but not before we undergo stormy condition's for the end of Victoria Day Weekend in what seems like a normal tradition for the province. An area of low pressure from the west coast of the united states will make it's way into southern Manitoba by
late Sunday through Tuesday, pumping  rich moisture from the united states out ahead of it allowing for shower and thunderstorm chances on Sunday in the west and Monday as well Tuesday for the eastern part of the south. CAPE and LI's will be high enough for storms to be non severe with a slight chance of a few becoming severe on Monday/Tuesday, however tornadoes DO NOT look likely. Now most of the rainfall we get will be driven convectively so there could be higher amounts in places of the Red River Valley up where we could see 15mm. Rain should clear out of the province by late Tuesday, leaving behind cooler temperatures but not too bad, we should recover to near and above seasonal values as we get closer to the mid to late week time frame. Long term data continues to show a chance where we could get to and stay above seasonal values into June meaning mid to high 20C temps, but it remains to be seen after such a bad year we experienced for six months with our horrible winter. Let's hope it gets better, we need it too!

Hope you enjoy your holiday weekend everyone!