Severe Weather Returns Today

The heat and humidity has finally cranked back up as a return of guf moisture enters the province, not only making it feel muggy but it will also aid in some potent thunderstorms as we go into the rest of the day today. Get Ready to batten down the hatches.

Today will be one of those days where the sun will be around and some clouds will be around at higher levels but our temperatures still will be able to reach the high 20's that will allow for it feel more humid out there more like the mid to high 30's. This will just create more heat and humidity for this storm system to work with, and that means the indicies for storms might be higher. 

As the frontal system encounters the heat and humidity there will be thunderstorm development, how bad will it be exactly? Taking into account the heat humidity that is in place there will be abundant moisture to work with, fairly high shear and CAPE Values will exceed 2,000 J/Kg and LI's of -4 to -8C capping will inhibit storms until late afternoon but as a result there might be an explosion of thunderstorms later on by 4pm as the front overcomes the capping in place. The Red River Valley will be at risk through the evening period.

Thunderstorm outlook (Slight Risk of Severe for the RRV including Winnipeg) Valid Until 11pm

As the front arrives storms will develop and quickly turn into supercells offering the threat for tornadoes as they enter the western parts of the red river valley and the interlakes. The storms that do develop will quickly increase in coverage and merge into a line of severe thunderstorms with bowing segments the risk will be there for damaging winds and large hail as they pass over, don't forget the lightning risk these storms can pose so be sure to stay indoors. Storms will exit Manitoba by evening heading into northwestern Ontario by 9pm or so. The likelihood of severe weather is imminent or will occur in the next little while. Please follow Environment Canada for the latest on the severe weather warnings. 

For Saturday much better weather conditions will be in place as we get under a ridge of high pressure but the temperatures may not be as warm with us only getting into the mid 20's

Sunday will be another day of thunderstorms as a surface trough works its way east through the day high temps once again trying to surpass 30C, might be another day of severe weather. I'll have more details in the comments and Twitter Saturday Night. 

Stay safe this evening remember to use the #MBstorm hashtag when tweeting photos of the storms this evening. My account for twitter is @SouthMBWeather, feel free to send me photo's I'll retweet. I might post a few of my own as well.

Heat and severe weather returns..

After what was a cool start to the week the heat returns but not for long as a northwestern flow starts taking shape by mid week next week. Until then you have the chance to get out and enjoy what will be a beautiful end to our week and start off to our weekend.

Tomorrow will be the start off to our heat as a area of low pressure from areas of northern Saskatchewan drags a warm front into southern manitoba ahead of it. This will allow for temperatures to reach the mid to high 20's with a surge of humidity getting humidex's values closer to 35 or 36C. Clouds will increase in the afternoon for areas of the RRV however there appears to be unsettled weather conditions that will present themselves in areas of western manitoba in the afternoon and evening. The potential will exist for thunderstorms some severe in the areas mentioned thanks in response to a cold front entering the region.  Along this front expect storms to develop and persist as they move east however there still is some uncertainty as to how far south things will develop the main risk appears to be north of the trans Canada but could be further south. As this front moves east expect severe weather to continue in the interlakes or the RRV and into areas of eastern manitoba overnight. All modes of severe weather will be possible.

As we go into Friday it looks like We could be in for a better day weather wise an area of high pressure will build in allowing for nicer conditions to exist possibility of high temps getting above normal to near 26C once again.

Cooler conditions will come in by mid week next week after the weekend below normal temperatures are forecast to come in as another ridge develops out in areas of British Columbia allowing for a trough of low pressure to dwindle through eastern Canada and areas of the eastern prairies. This means temperatures of 15 to 24C are possible in southern manitoba through the 6 to 10 day period.

Hot and Humid Weekend Ahead!

The weather has already shown off that it can get hot just yesterday (Friday) we experienced high temperatures right in and around the 25 to 30C in many areas of the south. Some severe weather also occurred just south of Winnipeg producing quarter sized hail and some intense wind gusts up to 80km/h in areas just south of Steinbach towards Emerson and along highway 75. Today was just a preview of what's ahead for the weekend get ready,the heat, humidity and thunderstorms are going to make a return.

Dewpoints above 20C will make
it feel tropical out, enjoy it! 

Severe Weather Saturday

Saturday will start off humid and quite warm for most, our high temperatures will quickly budge up into the high twenties to low 30's. Factoring in the dewpoints being in the low to mid 20's we will be dealing with a very humid airmass and it will feel oppressive heat will be present in a huge way as humidex's surpass 40C. As a result of the heat and humidity our atmosphere will become extremely unstable based on various models meaning there will be a risk for severe weather throughout the day. Here is how it could play out, a frontal system is expected to slide through southern manitoba during the morning sparking off showers and thunderstorms in areas just to the east of Winnipeg however this will not be the main story for tomorrow's severe weather. Once this systems clears out sunny skies will overtake but the next threat will come in the evening as storms possibly form in Southeast Sask/Southwest Manitoba and merge into a line of storms some possibly severe what I call a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). The line will likely progress eastwards  through areas of southern manitoba through the evening and overnight, likely reaching the RRV and Winnipeg in the late evening. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible along with intense to frequent lightning. I will post details in the thunder storm outlook center, and will update the comments as needed to provide information on the evolving situation.

Storms would clear overnight and then there will again be a potential for storms on Sunday.

Thundery Sunday

Sunday looks like it will be a quieter day weather wise and as a result there won't be severe storms but still a chance for showers and non severe thunderstorms as a cold front slumps southwards our high temperatures will be in the mid to high 20's. 

Potentially Stormy Week Ahead

Much nicer weather will return to start our week however there will be multiple storm chances as they return on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. High's still in the mid to high 20's.

Summer Weather Finally Returns!

A ridge of high pressure staying in the province for the next day or two will allow for some dry weather to linger around to help us dry out. After our last wind and rainstorm hit the province that sure did a number on all of us we now are welcomed with a return to the summer heat making our forecast look much better than it has been as of late, giving us the chance to get out and take in what summer has to offer.

The dry weather can't make a return soon enough since the flooding in the southwestern part of the province continues to worsen, several communities have declared a state of emergency and this weather is perfect for the recovery efforts. 

Today will offer beautiful conditions with sunshine and light winds out of the southwest along with temperatures right around normal, anywhere from 25 degrees in the south central part of the province to the 23C and 24C range in the southwest. Our low's will be a different story though as they drop to around or just slightly above the 10C mark.

Friday will be a much warmer day in the south as high temperatures sneak up in and around the 28-29C for much of the region as a warm front slides into the area, there also appears to be a warm front sliding into the area which will offer a slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Our overnight lows will only slide down into the 18C range in the RRV while lows of 16C in the southwest can be expected. 


Our true summer weather comes around on the weekend (only one way to describe it hot and humid) a hot and humid airmass will build into areas of southern Manitoba through the day Saturday as dewpoint's rise into the mid 20's our high temperatures of around to slightly above 30 degrees will feel closer to the high 30's to low 40's. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible given the fact there will be systems cascading through the area adding in the fact how hot and humid that it will feel. There is always a chance for that type of weather with such high heat and humidity. Details on the severe weather risk will be posted in tomorrow's post as things still remain quite uncertain over the weekend.


Get out and enjoy this real summer weather as we finally get a chance to dry out!