Today will be one of those days where the sun will be around and some clouds will be around at higher levels but our temperatures still will be able to reach the high 20's that will allow for it feel more humid out there more like the mid to high 30's. This will just create more heat and humidity for this storm system to work with, and that means the indicies for storms might be higher.
As the frontal system encounters the heat and humidity there will be thunderstorm development, how bad will it be exactly? Taking into account the heat humidity that is in place there will be abundant moisture to work with, fairly high shear and CAPE Values will exceed 2,000 J/Kg and LI's of -4 to -8C capping will inhibit storms until late afternoon but as a result there might be an explosion of thunderstorms later on by 4pm as the front overcomes the capping in place. The Red River Valley will be at risk through the evening period.
 |
| Thunderstorm outlook (Slight Risk of Severe for the RRV including Winnipeg) Valid Until 11pm |
As the front arrives storms will develop and quickly turn into supercells offering the threat for tornadoes as they enter the western parts of the red river valley and the interlakes. The storms that do develop will quickly increase in coverage and merge into a line of severe thunderstorms with bowing segments the risk will be there for damaging winds and large hail as they pass over, don't forget the lightning risk these storms can pose so be sure to stay indoors. Storms will exit Manitoba by evening heading into northwestern Ontario by 9pm or so. The likelihood of severe weather is imminent or will occur in the next little while. Please follow Environment Canada for the latest on the severe weather warnings.
For Saturday much better weather conditions will be in place as we get under a ridge of high pressure but the temperatures may not be as warm with us only getting into the mid 20's
Sunday will be another day of thunderstorms as a surface trough works its way east through the day high temps once again trying to surpass 30C, might be another day of severe weather. I'll have more details in the comments and Twitter Saturday Night.
Stay safe this evening remember to use the #MBstorm hashtag when tweeting photos of the storms this evening. My account for twitter is @SouthMBWeather, feel free to send me photo's I'll retweet. I might post a few of my own as well.
Storms will be likely this evening and overnight as they come in from saskatchewan, the red river valley may get in on some action tonight with non severe thunderstorms expected. Winnipeg has a risk of storms through the 2am to 5am period. tomorrow as another trough comes through there might be some severe weather as it comes through, GFS/NAM/RDPS all hint at high levels of instability through the day Sunday. Don't know if we'll see storms come out of this as the main trough is ontario. However I'll keep you informed on the matter as we make our way into the day.
ReplyDeleteFeel free to ask questions anytime, I monitor this blog quite often.
ReplyDelete