Severe Weather Returns Hopefully for the last time this year! :(

The rest of today will be an unusually warm and humid day for late August but nonetheless hopefully the last day we see severe weather because of this consistent stormy pattern all summer. Some are getting tired of it and I am especially.

The severe weather threat today will be along and ahead of a cold front that will be encountering a hot and humid airmass. Areas in the light red have the highest risk for supercell development as it is a Enhanced risk, with the sorrounding risk area in orange a strong to Moderate risk. Here are the ingredients we have today

Massive EHI values west of and including Winnipeg.

Moisture: Dewpoints in the high teens to low 20's, PWATS from 40 to 60mm.
Instability: Lifted Index's from -6 to -10C, MLCAPES from 2,500 J/Kg to 3,500 J/Kg and MUCAPES from 4,000 to 5,100 J/Kg.
Shear: Storm Relative Helicity from 165 to 319m2 s-2, Bulk Shear from 30 to 45 knots, EHI's of 3 to 5.3 which means EF2 to EF5 Tornadoes possible especially from Portage east into the Winnipeg and Emerson areas. SigTor from 1 to 3, best risk for significant tornadoes are along the USA border.
Trigger: Powerful Cold Front going through late afternoon to after midnight.

As a result of these ingredients severe weather will be likely as the front encounters the soupy airmass, Supercells will likely develop in the enhanced risk area and points west and persist as they move eastwards, the risk for tornadoes will be present in the enhanced ( moderate risk areas if they stay surface based). At the moment given the SKEW T Graphs and data by the NAM Tornadoes will be a risk (only if they stay surface based) from Portage La Prairie Eastwards through Winnipeg and into the whiteshell areas south to the USA Border. Strong Tornadoes will be possible as a result of such high CAPES and the shear we have. If storms manage to organize early enough and possibly become elevated the risk will only present itself west of Winnipeg. Regardless storms will organize into a squall line that will impact the Winnipeg and Red River Valley in the mid evening hours (if they are surface based they will pose a tornado threat as well, squall lines can be surface based). The storms will pose a threat for large hail up to softball size, winds in excess of 100km/h, heavy rainfall up to 100mm possible in locales, and dangerous frequent lightning. The storms will swing east southeast into North Dakota in the midnight timeframe. People are urged to follow updates from Manitoba Weather Center and Environment Canada for updates.


Storms will clear overnight leaving behind cooler and sunnier weather for the first half of the week before more heat and storms arrive to start September.

Severe Weather Today, ushering in cooler air.

Today will be another one of those days severe weather will return as a cold front moves into the area and encounters the hot humid airmass. This has very well become the new normal in Manitoba and it is a hard fact to swallow, though all we can do is just take it as it is. Hopefully we can enjoy some warm dry weather in September before summer is over.

There will be another day of severe weather today and it is already starting up in Southwest Manitoba, however this is not the main event. A high risk is present in the southeast part of the province including Winnipeg, areas in the interlakes have a moderate risk of severe weather where high instability levels present. Although a slight risk of severe weather is present further west in the Brandon area into the parklands with ongoing storms today with lesser instability present. A frontal system riding along the ridge will encounter a hot and humid airmass that is in place in the region.

Sufficient moisture will be available for storms today with dewpoints in the high teens and low 20's, along with PWAT values in the 30 to 45mm range. Large instability in the atmosphere will also be present today with Lifted Indicies in the -7 to -11 range, MLCAPE 1,000 in Far Northern South MB to 2,500 and 3,500 in the south as well as MUCAPE 2,000 to 4,000. Bulk Shear values in the 40 to 65knot range and very little EHI. The trigger will be our Cold Front moving through.

Discussion: Severe Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning ahead of a trough and they will move east northeast throughout the day into the interlakes, another cold front will be moving through later in the day today with the hot and humid airmass. It will remain capped for much of the earlier half of the day in moderate to high risk areas with storms struggling to develop, however the cap will slowly erode throughout the day in the Red River Valley and Southeast MB. Once the cold front goes through the cap could be eroded enough for storms to develop especially west of and in the Red River Valley supercells could very develop given extreme instability levels present that are building through the day. In early storm modes all severe weather will be possible from heavy rainfall rates in excess of 40mm flooding will be possible, hail from loonies to tennis balls possible with larger hail possible in southeast MB and the southern Red River Valley  but still a potential for golf balls or smaller in the central and northern Red River Valley in to the interlakes. Winds in excess of 90 to 100km/h, frequent dangerous lightning and tornadoes as possibility in discrete supercells but a small chance compared to what we have seen earlier this year. Once storms organize into a line (depending on where they form) either from west of Winnipeg or east of the city they will pose as mainly a straight line damaging wind threat and hail threat as they move east into the Red River Valley or Northwest Ontario. Storms should clear by late evening to after midnight.

Cooler and drier weather is expected tomorrow into Thursday and the weekend.

Hello Stormy Weather, Welcome Back!!

Winnipeg and muchh of southern Manitoba is in for another round of thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow, it is the usual summer type weather that we still can not seem to get rid of.

Tonight will be one of those nights that many people love or fret, a cold front will be moving through southern Manitoba through the next few hours and severe weather will start to be an occurence. A Moderate/Enhanced risk is in place for much of southern Manitoba including Winnipeg, a slight risk is in place for the eastern portions of Manitoba including the interlake regions. A much lower risk is up for the Northeastern portions of Southern Manitoba including parts of the Canadian shield with Bissett in the center.

Dewpoints will be in the mid to high teens with PWAT values in excess of 30 to 40mm, MUCAPE's from 1,500 to 2,500 J/KG. MLCAPES of 1,000 to 2,000 J/Kg. Lifted index's of -4 to -9. As well as Storm Relative Helicity values of 300 to 700m2-s2 and Bulk Shear from 25 to 35 knots which is 46 to 64 km/hr. Trigger will be a cold front moving in from the North. 
 

Simulated Radar Imagery Tonight into tomorrow morning, decent severe storms possible.

  

Total Precipitation for the period of 7pm Aug 17 to 5am Aug 18

 Tonight a cold front will be moving into Southern Manitoba and storms have already begun to fire in Western Manitoba, this front is what will be causing the ongoing severe weather over the coming hours. In early storm stages early to mid evening some very large hail up to golfballs are possible, flooding rains, dangerous frequent lightning, powerful wind gusts and the risk of Tornadoes. With storms that have developed we expect them to congeal into a squall line probably past the Brandon area as they move East into the Red River Valley, the tornado risk will decrease as the storms form into a line however there will be a continued risk for large hail up to ping pong balls or toonie to nickel size hail, damaging winds in excess of 90km/h, flooding rains as much as 30mm is possible and frequent lightning. Storms will weaken as they enter Eastern Manitoba. Showers and storms will be possible for the remainder of the morning on Thursday, with clearing by midday.

Cooler and drier weather will end off the week into the weekend and next week, with warmer weather mid to late week.

Severe Weather Has begun and will continue this evening.

Today is marking another hot and humid day which will be fueling more thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thanks to a arriving cold front from the west.

Severe weather risk map as courtesy of TheWeatherNetwork with their permission from my twitter account.

More severe weather will be on tap for the rest of the evening in southern manitoba ahead of another cold front.This could very well be another busy evening time will tell though.

Brandon Manitoba Weather hazard for tonight.

Winnipeg weather hazard for tonight. 

Let's have a look at the ingredients we have for tonights storms:
Moisture: Dewpoints in the mid to high teens some places above twenty Celsius, and precipitate-able water values in the 50mm+ range.
Instability: MUCAPES of 2,000 to 3,500 in all areas. MLCAPES of 1,500 to 2,500 J/Kg. Lifted Index  between -5 and -9.
Shear: 25 to 35 knots of bulk shear and SRH around 200m2s-2 increasing to 350 in the red river valley by evening.
Trigger: Cold Front approaching from the southwest in Saskatchewan.

(above a look at the simulated radar imagery for tonight)
Discussion: Considering storms have already fired in southwestern Manitoba I expect them to become supercells a risk of tornadoes is present in early storm modes, there already have been reports of funnel clouds by Rusell earlier. As the environment remains unstable thunderstorm development will continue into the evening hours. Large hail up to base balls, damaging winds in excess of 110km/h, frequent lightning and tornado risks are possible in the high risk area. Once they enter the Red River Valley and the interlakes the storms will encounter higher Storm relative helicity which sustains the risk for tornadoes but increases the factor for damaging winds. As a result the likelihood of a squall line with bowing segments remains possible into the evening for the Winnipeg area including the highlighted moderate risk area. In all instances with storms in the moderate risk area the risk for golf ball size hail, winds in excess of 100km/h, and flooding rains up to 50-70mm is possible along with dangerous frequent lightning. Areas in the slight and marginal risk area will have a smaller chance for severe storms but it will still be in place, mainly a isolated severe risk. The severe weather risk will end by 3am for most. Lingering storms will be in play in the morning but non severe mainly. Sunny weather for Tuesday before another round of potent severe weather on Wednesday once again possibly.