Hello Stormy Weather, Welcome Back!!

Winnipeg and muchh of southern Manitoba is in for another round of thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow, it is the usual summer type weather that we still can not seem to get rid of.

Tonight will be one of those nights that many people love or fret, a cold front will be moving through southern Manitoba through the next few hours and severe weather will start to be an occurence. A Moderate/Enhanced risk is in place for much of southern Manitoba including Winnipeg, a slight risk is in place for the eastern portions of Manitoba including the interlake regions. A much lower risk is up for the Northeastern portions of Southern Manitoba including parts of the Canadian shield with Bissett in the center.

Dewpoints will be in the mid to high teens with PWAT values in excess of 30 to 40mm, MUCAPE's from 1,500 to 2,500 J/KG. MLCAPES of 1,000 to 2,000 J/Kg. Lifted index's of -4 to -9. As well as Storm Relative Helicity values of 300 to 700m2-s2 and Bulk Shear from 25 to 35 knots which is 46 to 64 km/hr. Trigger will be a cold front moving in from the North. 
 

Simulated Radar Imagery Tonight into tomorrow morning, decent severe storms possible.

  

Total Precipitation for the period of 7pm Aug 17 to 5am Aug 18

 Tonight a cold front will be moving into Southern Manitoba and storms have already begun to fire in Western Manitoba, this front is what will be causing the ongoing severe weather over the coming hours. In early storm stages early to mid evening some very large hail up to golfballs are possible, flooding rains, dangerous frequent lightning, powerful wind gusts and the risk of Tornadoes. With storms that have developed we expect them to congeal into a squall line probably past the Brandon area as they move East into the Red River Valley, the tornado risk will decrease as the storms form into a line however there will be a continued risk for large hail up to ping pong balls or toonie to nickel size hail, damaging winds in excess of 90km/h, flooding rains as much as 30mm is possible and frequent lightning. Storms will weaken as they enter Eastern Manitoba. Showers and storms will be possible for the remainder of the morning on Thursday, with clearing by midday.

Cooler and drier weather will end off the week into the weekend and next week, with warmer weather mid to late week.