Severe Weather Has begun and will continue this evening.

Today is marking another hot and humid day which will be fueling more thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thanks to a arriving cold front from the west.

Severe weather risk map as courtesy of TheWeatherNetwork with their permission from my twitter account.

More severe weather will be on tap for the rest of the evening in southern manitoba ahead of another cold front.This could very well be another busy evening time will tell though.

Brandon Manitoba Weather hazard for tonight.

Winnipeg weather hazard for tonight. 

Let's have a look at the ingredients we have for tonights storms:
Moisture: Dewpoints in the mid to high teens some places above twenty Celsius, and precipitate-able water values in the 50mm+ range.
Instability: MUCAPES of 2,000 to 3,500 in all areas. MLCAPES of 1,500 to 2,500 J/Kg. Lifted Index  between -5 and -9.
Shear: 25 to 35 knots of bulk shear and SRH around 200m2s-2 increasing to 350 in the red river valley by evening.
Trigger: Cold Front approaching from the southwest in Saskatchewan.

(above a look at the simulated radar imagery for tonight)
Discussion: Considering storms have already fired in southwestern Manitoba I expect them to become supercells a risk of tornadoes is present in early storm modes, there already have been reports of funnel clouds by Rusell earlier. As the environment remains unstable thunderstorm development will continue into the evening hours. Large hail up to base balls, damaging winds in excess of 110km/h, frequent lightning and tornado risks are possible in the high risk area. Once they enter the Red River Valley and the interlakes the storms will encounter higher Storm relative helicity which sustains the risk for tornadoes but increases the factor for damaging winds. As a result the likelihood of a squall line with bowing segments remains possible into the evening for the Winnipeg area including the highlighted moderate risk area. In all instances with storms in the moderate risk area the risk for golf ball size hail, winds in excess of 100km/h, and flooding rains up to 50-70mm is possible along with dangerous frequent lightning. Areas in the slight and marginal risk area will have a smaller chance for severe storms but it will still be in place, mainly a isolated severe risk. The severe weather risk will end by 3am for most. Lingering storms will be in play in the morning but non severe mainly. Sunny weather for Tuesday before another round of potent severe weather on Wednesday once again possibly.