Get Ready to Flush out the heat and humidity! But not before we see storms!!!

Unfortunately we have another round of severe weather expected as the stubborn (yes stubborn!) heat and humidity clash with a system coming in from Saskatchewan.

Okay so I have gotten a lot of complaints about this potential another round of severe weather and yes I have to say that I am getting tired of it too, however this round of severe weather will not be as bad as the event we experienced on July 20. That's the good news! As the above map depicts we expect that the high risk area will be in the southwest part of Manitoba and into west central Manitoba into Northern Manitoba. Moderate risk extending further east into the red river valley and southern/central interlakes, whiteshell offers a slight risk towards the early morning hours.

Let's have a look at the Ingredients we have for storms tonight....
Moisture: With dewpoints in the high teens to low 20's and PWATS in the 30 to 50mm range flooding will definitely be a possibility in tonight's storms.
Instability: MUCAPE from 2,500 to 3,732 J/KG, MLCAPE 2,000 to 4,000 J/kg and Lifted indicies from -3 to -8 will help with storm development and maintenance into the night. As a result of CAPE being moderately to very unstable marginally severe hail will be expected with marble to golf balls as the largest possibility hail wise. Base balls could also be possible if conditions warrant enough in storms.
Shear: Will be weak to moderate with only about 100 to 300 m2s-2 Storm Relative helicity with the highest indicies in southwest Manitoba, moderate levels in the Red River Valley to about 200. Bulk shear from 35 to 45knots, EHI's of 2 to 3 in SW MB and the Red River Valley. Supercell indicie of 5 to 20 and significant tornado of 1 to 3 mainly in extreme southwestern Manitoba. That means there will be a strong wind threat with tornado potential.
Trigger: Powerful cold front moving through in the overnight hours into the morning hours.

Synopsis (Discussion)

Brandon METAR/TAF CYBR

Winnipeg METAR/TAF

Radar Image as courtesy of the NAM 4km Model 

CURRENT RADAR

So as I write this discussion storms are forming in saskatchewan, as they continue to move east they will develop further and organize more into a line, in the storms early stages expect them to present a tornado risk especially in southwest Manitoba where the high risk is present. Storms will then continue to move east and develop into a line, that means we will be dealing with a squall line of some kind by mid evening. All threats of severe weather will be possible, winds in excess of 100km/h, frequent cloud to cloud and cloud to ground lightning, hail up to the size of golf balls in the southwest but up to the size of ping pong balls to marbles in the red river valley, flooding rains and potential power outages. A few brief spinups (funnel clouds/tornadoes) are possible along the line late evening and overnight. They should enter Brandon around 9pm and Lake manitoba south to Portage La Prairie and miami into Pilot Mound around 11pm, Hecla south through Stonewall, Winnipeg, Carman, Morris, Emerson by 1 or 2am. Victoria Beach and Lake Winnipeg south through Beausejour and Steinbach into the whiteshell 3am to 7am timeframe. Overnight lows in the low 20's expected. Storms may redevelop if they die out in the morning in the Red River Valley, or they may reintensify meaning a chance for morning/early afternoon storms in the Red River Valley and eastman high's will be in the mid 20's with westerly winds south of the low that will be in northern Manitoba. They may be severe as well as remnants of tonight's ingredients are in place tomorrow. Please tweet storm reports to #MBstorm on twitter I also will be tweeting alerts and updates there as well, follow http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb for alerts and also follow Manitoba Weather Centre for updates and my twitter account www.twitter.com/southmbweather.

Enjoy the storms! I even bought popcorn to have when they roll in.

Nicer weather will be in place for the start of the week, however more storms will be possible Wednesday some severe.