Storms to clear out the heat and humidity

Today will present another severe weater risk as a cold front moves into the hot hmid airmass that is in place, however it will clear out the heat and humidity which is a very good thing.

Warm dewpoints in our area up to the low 20's possible, may fuel thunderstorms later today

Moderate risk of severe weather is expected today in the central parts of Southern Manitoba with a slight risk surrounding it.

Today will be another potentially stormy day weatherwise and it will be contingent on how much clearing takes place and how much we warm up we could get up to 25 or 26C in Winnipeg today, the risk will be presented as another trough moves into the area. Let's have a look at the indicies...
Moisture: Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 20's coupled with heat index (humidex values) in the low to mid 30's or higher should give a lot of moisture for storms to work with.
Instability: CAPE values will be in the 1500 to 3500 J/Kg range, with lifted indicies between -7 to -10 should help support storm growth and storm maintenance.
Shear: Bulk Shear in the 30 to 50 knot range, SRH 200 to 300 m2s-2, EHI's of 2 to 4, Supercell composite of 10 to 20, Significant Tornado Paramater of 1 to 3. Altogether should maintain storm organization, making supercell and tornado development a possibility.
Trigger: Cold Front going through late afternoon to early and mid evening should spark severe thunderstorm potential as it goes through.

Skew T Graph For Winnipeg, Tornado potential is there

The setup today appears to be severe but not as severe as Wednesday was, a moist and warm airmass will be in place today for much of Southern Manitoba ahead of a cold front that will usher out the hot humid air, but also bring in a moderate risk of severe weather for parts of Southern Manitoba.

A cold front is just situated along the MB/Sk border and will continue to move eastwards this afternoon, it may result in severe weather depending on how much clearing takes place. If there is still cloudcover not a lot will happen, showers may be possible along with the odd rumble of thunder. Now if it clears and gets warm and humid ahead of the front severe weather will definitely be possible. If the latter occurs I would expect a line of thunderstorms to develop out west of the Red River Valley where instability may be the greatest, supercells would likely develop and travel east into the red river valley by late afternoon and early evening with large hail up to ping pong ball size, winds greater than 90km/h, frequent and dangerous lightning, torrential rains up to 40mm possible, as well as a low tornado risk. The storms should be through Winnipeg by suppertime or shortly after. These storms may form into a line at some point or another, either by the time they reach the Red River Valley or shortly after. That would pose a straight line wind threat if anything else. The Storms should be out of the province by mid evening.

Calmer and quieter weather will be in place for the weekend into next week with more seasonable weather expected. Enjoy!