Another potential day of severe weather

Today will be another hot and humid day the potential for dangerous thunderstorms will also potentially arise this afternoon and evening fueled by high heat and humidity.

Today's dewpoints look to get in the low 20's, thus a heat warning is in place...

Today will present another severe weather risk and it could be quite dangerous!!! A couple of shortwaves will move through the hot humid air resulting in a risk for all modes of severe weather especially in the high risk area. Again this is conditonal given that the cap may or may not break.

Moisture: Warm Dewpoints advecting north into southern Manitoba with values of 20 to 25C, and humidex readings into the 40's meaning relative humidity values getting into the 60 to 70% range.

Instability: Through the roof! CAPES on the order of 3000 to 5500, Lifted indicies from -8 to -15 however capping may be an issue until the shortwaves come through which means that storms may tap into the greatest instability by late afternoon east of Brandon.

Shear: Great for supercell organization, tornadoes, and storm maintenance. Bulk shear in excess of 50 to 65 knots throughout the day, EHI values from 1 to 5, and Supercell Composite from 15 to 26.

 Trigger: 2 shortwaves approaching from the west entering southern Manitoba this afternoon and evening, that may hopefully break the cap.

Storms to fire around suppertime

Line of nasty supercells by evening in the Red River Valley

 Discussion: A high risk of severe weather will be present in southern Manitoba today with a sorrounding moderate risk in the interlakes, however it remains conditional due to capping. Today 2 shortwaves will be approaching from the west as a result as it encounters the hot humid air definite severe weather is possible. The cap is expected to weaken around suppertime in the Brandon area and if it does storms will explode to possible tops of 62,000 feet as per the GFA from Aviation weather services from NAVCanada. Supercells will likely develop around dinner time depending on where they fire they could impact areas of the westman region or the west Red River Valley regardless tornadoes are possible early on.  Once they organize into a line by mid evening in the red river valley or points west they either could move east or southeast depending on which way the winds carry them. Winds in excess of 100km/h dangerous hail up to tennis ball size, frequent dangerous cloud to cloud, cloud to ground lightning and torrential rains are likely with these supercells and the line as they move east. Tornadoes atre possible with the squall line or MCS however the risk is much lower, storms should exit the province by late evening or after midnight. Western Manitoba late afternoon/early evening, evening and near midnight for the Red River Valley, Winnipeg and Eastman.

Please follow Manitoba Weather Center, #mbstorm on Twitter and Manitoba Tornado Watch for updates regarding today's alerts, I'll be out volunteering again.