Mild weather continues, with a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday +Thanksgiving forecast 🦃🦃🦃🦃

Southern regions of Manitoba can expect a pleasent weekend as a southerly flow takes over behind a area of high pressure and a low pressure system. 

Saturday: Beautiful weather is expected and I’m not expecting much in the way of significant weather either, the only caveat to this is that the ridge which brought the warm weather on Friday will be in Ontario. So a bit of a northwesterly flow aloft will prevent temperatures from warming significantly.  Regardless sunny skies along with a mix of sun and cloud can be expected in the south. High temperatures are expected to be in the high single digits (7-10C) in the southeast to the mid teens (10-15C) in the southwest. Winnipeg: A mix of sun and cloud, high 13C. Brandon: Sunny, high 14C. Dauphin: Sunny, high 12C. 

Saturday Night: A occluded front will move toward the Manitoba border overnight into Sunday morning, ahead of it partly cloudy skies are expected overnight into Sunday. One thing to note: if the system travel speed slows down which would make this system come in later, clearer skies would be expected overnight. In general overnight low temperatures will drop into the high single digits (5 to 10C), with some areas by the escarpment  dropping into the mid single digits (4 to 7C). Winnipeg: Clear, low 9C. Brandon: Partly Cloudy, low 8C. Dauphin: Clear, low 8C. 

Sunday: Things get a tiny little more complicated, model data is suggesting a frontal system moving through Manitoba during the early day time and indications are that it will bring a wide swath of showers along with it. Alongside the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the southeast , some of them may become severe. I know it’s weird and we’re in the middle of October a season that should be transitioning into winter, but we’re seeing a thunderstorm threat instead. That’s 2020 for you! One thing that we will have to confirm future model data, because if this changes there will be a potential for the thunderstorm threat to move into North Dakota and portions of southern Manitoba, particularly the red river valley. I doubt that the Southwest will get any convection as models are consistent with the southeast. As a result I’m expecting a general threat for showers and thunderstorms, with a very slight risk of severe thunderstorms. The threat will be more so south of the border. High temperatures for the day on Sunday will be above normal , with a majority of the region seeing temperatures in the mid to high teens (14-17C). Areas in the southeast will only manage to reach the low teens (10-12C) mark. Winnipeg: Partly Cloudy to mostly cloudy. Showers, or thunderstorms in the late afternoon, some thunderstorms may be severe. High 15C. Brandon: Mostly Cloudy, 60% chance of showers risk of a thunderstorm . High 15C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, 60% chance of showers, High 17C. 

Sunday Night: A majority of the showers and thunderstorms will exit the province by mid to late evening. Lingering cloudcover along with a west wind and clearing skies, will make things a lot cooler than the day on Sunday. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits (4-9C) the cooler areas will likely be in areas north of Dauphin and around the escarpment regions. Winnipeg: Cloudy low 8C. Brandon: Cloudy, low 6C. Dauphin: Cloudy, low 5C. 

Monday: The weather is expected to be pleasant for thanksgiving, some sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected for the majority of our region. It will also transition period into cooler weather is expected for thanksgiving, with temperatures not budging warmer than (6-10C) north of the transcanada and northeast of Winnipeg where more cloud is expected. Whereas areas where the sun will be out in the south, high temperatures will soar into the low to mid teens (10-14C). Winnipeg: Sunny to partly cloudy high 11C, Brandon: Sunny high 11C. Dauphin: Sunny high 10C. 

Monday Night: Cold and clear conditions will filter in overnight as a trough of pressure moves through , cold north winds will assist in making it a unpleasantly cold night. Low temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits, for the majority of the south . Winnipeg: Clear, low 3C. Brandon: Clear low 1C, Dauphin: Clear, low 4C. 

The rest of the week: Looks like the pattern will support fairly pleasant conditions are expected. There may be chances at showers or snow through the week.  the arrival of cooler than average day time highs in the high single digits, lows in the low single digits to below zero.