Winter Storm and Real Winter Like Temperatures on the way!

 As we have experienced warmer than average weather over the past couple of days ,, we will be expecting a transition into some fairly unsettled weather as we head into the work week. A Colorado low pressure system looks to impact the northern plains. with the potential for the seasons first significant snowfall. Read on to find out more. 

00Z Model data above, 12 Z Model data below this ... My forecast was based on the 00z model run . Just goes to show the vast difference in model output.  

Monday: During the day Monday , a warm front and stationary front will sit over western sections into the interlake part of Manitoba. Along this front light snow will likely occur during the morning hours in southwestern Manitoba tapering to flurries in the afternoon. Cloudy skies are expected in the morning , with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions expected by the afternoon hours. Temperatures ahead on Monday are expected to be in the low to mid single digits in the SW (-1 to -6C) to the mid to high minus single digits in the south central and the southeast (-5 to -10C). Winnipeg: Cloudy then partly cloudy, 30% chance of flurries in the morning. High -8C. Brandon: Light snow in the morning then partly. High -5C. 

Monday Night: An approaching low pressure system will move into areas of southern Saskatchewan and Montana on Monday night, which will push in more unsettled or I say perfect weather for Christmas coming up. As it approaches our area , increasing cloud is expected along with some possible patchy fog for much of the region. Temperatures will stay pretty stationary overnight, only rising a degree or two, mainly only looking at lows in the mid to high minus single digits (- 3 to -10). Winnipeg: Cloudy, low -5C. Brandon: Cloudy, low -6C. 

Tuesday: The area of low pressure that I mentioned above will be moving into the region during the morning hours. The centre of the low should remain in North Dakota however as we will be on the northern side, an area of heavy snow will traverse Across much of southern Manitoba including the Interlake portions of the province. There is a chance for some mixing especially in areas along the international border with a slight risk of freezing rain. Snow will fall for majority of the day with periods of heavier snow occurring often on at different intervals. It appears the heaviest snow will fall in a swath from Brandon into the interlakes, Winnipeg and Nopiming provincial park where 15 to 40cm of snow is possible. The area that could see the possibility of more than 30cm of snow is in the interlakes and Bissett regions. (See photo above). Areas surrounding the heaviest snow will receive upwards of 5 to 15cm of snow that includes southwestern Manitoba, parkland. and Southeastern Manitoba. Justin will give you guys updates on the data for areas of heaviest possible snowfall as model information comes in. Notes expect blowing snow with reduced Visibility as low as 1km to 0.5km in the heaviest snow. Temperatures will remain on the mild side as the storm impacts the region areas in Southeastern Manitoba will be in the low minus single digits (-2 to -5C) whereas areas in south western Manitoba the parklands and interlakes will experience temperatures in the mid minus single digits to high minus single digits (-6 to -10C). Winnipeg: Snow beginning In the morning, Snowfall at times heavy with blowing snow and near zero visibility at times. Amount 20-30cm. High -3C. Brandon: Snow beginning in the morning, snow and blowing snow with near zero visibility at times. Snowfall amount: 15-20cm. High -7C. Note: keep in mind these are initial forecast amounts for snowfall we will update you as the latest model data comes in there is a chance that these numbers could change before the day Tuesday.

Tuesday Night: An arctic cold front will drop south into Minnesota and North Dakota, behind it will put an end to the above normal temperature pattern. Cloudy skies are expected overnight for a large part except SW MB in the early morning. Winds will also be out of the north west. Even with the cloudy conditions we will still see Overnight lows plummeting into the mid to high minus double digit temperature range, with a swath of -20°C temperatures occurring in the inter lake portions into central portion of Manitoba. Wind chills overnight will drop into the high minus twenty degree range into the mid to high -30°C range overall (-25 to -36C) windchills are possible. A rare exception I will note that northern Manitoba will see windchills in the low -40s. What is weird about this set up is that our overnight low temperatures wont be reached least until 9 AM instead of 6 AM. Winnipeg: Snow ending in the evening then cloudy, clear shortly after sunrise. Low -22C. Windchill -36C. Brandon: Snow ending in the early evening then cloudy clearing towards sunrise, low -20C. Windchill -30. 

Wednesday: As usual in this kind of cold pattern a large area of high-pressure will be sitting over the northern section of Manitoba, ahead of it a strong Northwesterly flow will be in place. Sunny skies should finally be in place , we have had a unusually long period of cloudy days. The only negative about this is it will be a cold day!! Temperatures will only sit in the mid to low minus teens (14 to -20C) for daytime highs. Windchills will be closer to -20 to -25C. Winnipeg: Sunny high temperature -17°C, wind chill -21°C. Brandon: sunny high temperature -14°C. Windchill -20°C. 

Second half of the week: It appears the below normal facilitation pattern will continue into the weekends it’s hard to find out at the moment how cold it will get indications are our daytime high temperatures will be in the mid minus double digits or slightly colder. With overnight lows in the -20°C range and windchills into the -30C range.

I will have a post ready for Wednesday, however for Friday through Wednesday next week I will not be doing any posts as the holiday season is here!

Warmer than average temperature trend continues.

 Southern Manitoba will be under the influence of multiple low pressure systems over the weekend , on the northern edge of a ridge in the southern United States. As well this will be the main weather pattern over the coming days, temperatures will continue on the above normal trend. 

(Above: A small Alberta clipper will move through the region on Sunday, giving about 1 to 5 or more cm of snow). A area of low pressure , will move into southern Manitoba during Saturday along with a warm front draped over areas of central and southern regions of the province. Cloudy skies are expected for the afternoon on Saturday, along with some sunny skies are possible in the southeastern sections of the province. Whereas by the parklands, there high temperatures for the region will be in the low to mid minus single digits between -1 and -8C. Winnipeg: Mostly cloudy, high -6C. Brandon: Mostly cloudy, High -3C. 

Saturday Night: An arctic cold front will move south into northern North Dakota, behind it an area of high pressure will move into the regions of central Manitoba. Clear skies are expected. Along with it temperatures will drop drastically, there’s a good chance of seeing overnight lows in the low minus single digits to mid minus teens in the interlake regions with windchills in the minus 20’s (-7C to -15C.) Winnipeg: Clear, low temperature -8C, windchill minus 13C. Brandon: Clear, low temperature -3C windchill -9C. 

Sunday: Another area of low pressure will slide along the international border into southern sections of Manitoba. Snow will begin on Sunday evening in the southwest section of Manitoba, moving east throughout the evening and overnight hours. Accumulations won’t go up much. On average once 1-7 cm of snow is expected, some areas in the Red River Valley and inter lakes could see up to 10cm. Temperatures will rise into the mid to low minus single digits (-1 to -5C). Snow will continue into the overnight period. Clearing skies are expected with temperatures dropping into the mid to low minus single digits (-5 to -10C). Winnipeg: Snow and blowing snow amount 5 to 10cm. Cloudy overnight. High -3C, low -9C. Brandon: Snow, and blowing snow amount 5cm. High 0C, cloudy overnight low -3C. 

First half of the week: Interesting week ahead, it appears the warmer than average temperature trend will continue at least into Wednesday, with warm temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits. Looking into the model data there is a chance for a winter storm sometime late Monday or early Tuesday. We at Manitoba weather centre will keep you updated on this unfolding situation. 

-Mike McGregor. 

Another Holiday Treat of Winter Warmth On the Way.

 Southern Manitoba will begin to transition into warmer than average weather over the next couple of days as a slight ridge builds over the northern plains with a westerly flow aloft , we will be on the northern edge of a ridge. This ridge will not be a typical pattern that we see in the summer more of the warm will be confined to the southern states. Several areas of low pressure will sit over the southern portion of the province over the coming days, on the northern edge of the ridge bringing with it chances for snow to end the week.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy today mostly cloudy skies are expected in the region, with some exceptions in Interlake regions where clear skies may occur in the afternoon hours. A area of low pressure will start building north into central regions of Manitoba and sections of northwestern Ontario, trailing cold fronts will sit over central regions Manitoba including the inter lake regions. A band of snow will develop in South Eastern sections of Manitoba which will only last through the early afternoon to late afternoon hours before it moves into Ontario. There will be a chance for flurries in the afternoon and evening elsewhere in the southern sections of Manitoba except for the inter lakes. As as for our daytime high temperatures temperatures are in the mid to high minus single digits (-5 to -9C) with the exception of the Manitoba lakes getting into the -10°C mark. Winnipeg: Cloudy, chance of flurries, high -3°C. Brandon: Cloudy, 30% chance of flurries in the afternoon. High -5°C. 

Wednesday night: A small weak cold front will be sitting over the south, which will be stationary. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected overnight into Thursday. Mainly cloudy skies are expected through the night. Temperatures will drop into the high minus single digits (-7 to 10C) with a few sections over lake Manitoba and south of the lake itself by the pembina valley seeing temperatures in the low minus double digits (-11 to -14C). Winnipeg: Mainly cloudy: Low -9C. Brandon: Cloudy, low -9C. 

Thursday: A warm front and a low pressure system will lift northwards into central regions of Manitoba and will draw in warmer air for the day on Thursday.  This will be followed by cloudy skies a chance for flurries and some small pockets of sunny skies in southern portions of Manitoba by Duck Mountain and possibly the international peace gardens. Temperatures will soar into the low and mid minus single digits (-3 to -8C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, 30% chance of flurries high temperature -4C. Brandon: Cloudy, high -4C.

Thursday Night: Cloudy skies are expected.  A cold front will move through southern sections of Manitoba, overnight into Friday. A large swath of snow will develop along the front indications are that it will either intensify over southern Manitoba by Brandon or , just east of Winnipeg. Regardless snow is expected for the region heading into Friday. Accumulation will vary from 2 to 5cm, with the possibility of near 10cm in heavier bands.  Temperatures will rise overnight instead of drop. They will sit in the low to mid minus single digits (-2 to -6C). Winnipeg: Periods of snow, low temperature -3C. Brandon: Periods of snow. Low temperature minus 3C. 

Friday: A shift in the pattern will occur as the cold front that allowed snow to impact the region moves into Ontario. Cloudy skies , along with some residual snow will impact areas of southeastern Manitoba in the late morning and early afternoon hours. Whereas clearing skies and sunny skies will occur in southwestern Manitoba behind the front toward noon, this will move east throughout the day as high pressure settles in. Temperatures will drop during the day from the mid low or mid minus single digits (-2 to -5C) around sunrise to the low to mid minus double digits (-10 to -15C) with the high temperatures being reached around sunrise. Winnipeg: Snow and blowing snow in the morning , partly cloudy in the afternoon. High -3C, temperature falling to -10C in the afternoon then -13C in the evening. Brandon: Flurries in the morning, then sunny. High -2C in the morning, temperature falling to -13C in the afternoon then -15C in the evening. 

Friday Night: With the Arctic cold front by Lake Superior in the evening and a attendant high pressure system over central Manitoba , along with clear skies it’s possible we might have some stronger NW winds in place which will aid in dropping temperatures into the mid to high minus double digits (-14 to -19C). Theres a possibly of low minus twenties (-20 to -21C) over lake Winnipeg overnight into Saturday. Cloudy skies will increase towards morning. Winnipeg: Clear then mostly cloudy by morning. Low -16C. Windchill >-16C. Brandon: Clear, then mostly cloudy towards morning. Low temperature -17C, windchill >-17C. 

The Weekend: Looks like more seasonal temperatures in the mid minus single digits for daytime highs will return , with the arrival of a westerly flow once again as low pressure systems sit over the province of Manitoba. A few chances for snow look possible with these systems. I’ll definitely keep an eye on this for my Friday forecast. -Mike McGregor  

Snow and cool temperatures expected ahead for Tuesday

 I have decided to take a week off considering the weather has gone quiet and cooler. I’ll be back on running the blog tomorrow evening. Just a quick update. Tomorrow will be one of the cooler days before a transition to slightly warmer weather occurs, cloudy to partly cloudy skies are expected. As well a narrow band of snow is expected to move into regions of southern Manitoba tomorrow morning, into the evening on Tuesday as a warm front slides along the American border. Snowfall accumulations will not be that much , I’m only expecting 2-3cm for a majority of southern Manitoba. Temperatures for a majority of the region will be in the mid to high minus single digits (-7 to 10C), with regions north of the Trans Canada getting into the low minus double digits (-10 to -14C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, periods of snow. Amount 2cm. High -11C, windchill -17C. Brandon: Cloudy, periods of snow. High -10C, windchill -15C. 

Tuesday Night: Mostly Cloudy skies are expected overnight into Wednesday, as a warm front lifts north temperatures will rise. Overnight into Wednesday temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits to low teens (-6 to 10C), with windchill’s in the mid minus double digits (-12 to -15C).

An update will be made for Wednesday and the 2nd half of the week, tomorrow night and posted on Wednesday. -Mike McGregor

Rain, freezing rain and snow begins transition to colder weather.

Southern portions of Manitoba have experienced a warmer than average period Of weather over the past few weeks, that looks to end abruptly as a low pressure system moves through the region over the next several hours.  This will impact our weather tonight into tomorrow, all hazards of  winter weather are expected find out what they are and the timing of precipitation. Also this blog will be a bit shorter compared to other blogs that I’ve done I am only going to be looking at tonight and tomorrow’s weather with a little glance for Friday. 

Now-Friday 

Southern sections of Manitoba will be on the Northside of a low pressure system, A warm front will be attached to the system which will impact our region and cause some winter weather over the next 24 hours. Precipitation has already started to fill into the regions of southern Manitoba, With rain falling in vast portion of the south. Snow is also falling in sections of Southeastern Manitoba and southwestern Manitoba but a few patches in the northern Interlakes regions. 

Timing and Precipitation Type, Location: Wednesday Night. (Photo above is at 12am local time). 

The system will begin to intensify over the next 3 to 6 hours, looking at some of the model Dad I recently it looks like the majority of the precipitation will fall as rain or freezing rain between Brandon into the red river valley and a small portion south east of Winnipeg. There is also a chance that some of this precipitation could mix with snow however that does not look likely in the latest model runs.  Freezing rain is more likely in areas of Southeastern Manitoba, as well as sections between Arborg and Gimli. Those interested where the snowfall it looks like there may be some snow mixed with freezing rain in areas of Southeastern Manitoba with just plain snow in regions of southwestern Manitoba between Brandon into Killarney, and pilot mound. The large amount of moisture and precipitation will exit southern regions, Shortly before dawn or after sunrise. As it moves into Minnesota and Ontario will be a chance for some rain mixed with snow in Winkler regions as well as sign back in to Sprague and Piney regions. 

Accumulations:

If this changes on future model runs I will let you guys know. Snow:As far as precipitation accumulation goes, areas of south western Manitoba including Brandon into Killarney can expect 1 to 3 cm. Snowfall accumulations in south eastern Manitoba will be between 1-5cm. Freezing Rain and mixed precipitation. : For sections of Southeastern Manitoba and patches in Interlakes region can expect a trace to 2 mm of freezing rain, there is also a risk for freezing rain in the accumulation of 1 mm in red River Valley and areas that will see rainfall. Rain: large portion from the red river valley into Southwestern Manitoba we’ll see between 1 to 8 mm of rain that is quite concerning as temperatures will likely drop below zero by the morning. The largest accumulations of will occur south of Winnipeg along highway 1 into the white shell. 

Temperatures: will drop between zero and -3°C by sunrise they will also gradually drop throughout the rest of the day. For the most part overnights sections of the Red River Valley and Southwestern Manitoba will remaining above zero (1 to 2C) overnight into Thursday. However the temperature will drop towards sunrise their actual overnight low temperatures dropping between -1 and -4°C around 6am. This is a concern for a large portion of the region which well experience rain and freezing rain throughout the overnight. This will potentially cause accidents and travel difficulties because of the ice buildup from the rainfall of forecasted 1 to 8mm which will freeze possibly overnight into the morning hours.  You have your salt and ice melter. 

Forecast: Winnipeg: Mainly Rain or snow mixed with freezing rain at times, late this evening and after midnight. Rain ending before morning then snow. Rainfall accumulation, 3-5mm. Snowfall amounts Trace to 1cm. Low +3C falling to -2 by 6 a.m. 

Brandon:  Periods of Rain or snow, risk of freezing rain 30% chance. Snowfall amounts: 1 to 3 cm, rainfall amounts trace to 1mm. Low temperature: 3C falling 2 to -4 Celsius by morning.

Thursday and Friday: On Thursday there looks to be a risk for freezing drizzle or freezing rain in the early afternoon hours. Then cloudy skies should be the dominating feature on Thursday and Friday, as well both days look to be cooler than average our temperatures will likely drop into the mid minus single digits (-5 to -9C) for daytime high temperatures and overnight lows in the high minus single digits to low minus teens (-6 to -12C).

Stay safe and stay tuned Manitoba weather centre for updates on this evolving situation.

Falls Last Hurrah, before gradual pattern change .

 Southern Manitoba has been in a unusually warm pattern over the past couple weeks, this trend looks to continue as a southerly flow kicks inas a area of high pressure moves off to the east. The warmth will be notable as a attendant warm front sits over parts of Manitoba and Ontario. Read on to find out how this will be the feature of our weather this week. 

Monday: Itll be one of those typical fall days, I’m expecting cloudy to partly cloudy skies were majority of southern Manitoba. Areas in the southeast sections will be under cloudy skies They’re also will be a chance for some flurries and mixed precipitation in the southeast during the morning and early afternoon, and the areas south west section of Manitoba will have partly cloudy skies. Temperatures for the day on Monday will be in the low to mid minus single digits in the southeast (-1 to -6C), and in the low single digits in the southwest portion of Manitoba (1 to 3C) as the west winds move in behind the warm front. Winnipeg: Cloudy high temperature 3°C, Brandon: Partly cloudy high temperature 5C. 

Monday night: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are expected for the region, Overnight lows for majority of southern Manitoba will be sticking in the mid minus single digits, (-7 to 0°C). The warm front should be in Northwestern Ontario by morning, which will help boost our temperatures. Winnipeg: Cloudy periods, Low -4°C, Brandon: Cloudy, Low -3C. 

Tuesday: This will be one of the couple of the last days above zero!!! Partly cloudy skies are expected for the region, some periods of sun may occur. A Majority of southern Manitoba will be seeing temperatures well above zero. Temperatures will range from 1C to 9C. This warmth will stretch all the way up into northern Manitoba where the temperatures will rise into the low single digits zero to 2C. (not in extreme northern regions however). Winnipeg: Cloudy, high temperature 4C, Brandon: Cloudy, high 5C. 

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy to clear skies are expected overnight a westerly wind for temperatures not to drop that much. A Majority of the Interlakes and southern regions of Manitoba will see temperatures in the high minus single digits (-5 to -9C). There will be a likelihood of windchills between (-11 to -13C), especially over lake Winnipeg and south of lake Winnipeg. Winnipeg: Partly Cloudy, low minus 7C windchill -11C. Brandon: Cloudy, low -6C. 

Wednesday: A clipper system will approach southwestern Manitoba during the afternoon hours, no precipitation will occur with this however large amount of cloud cover are expected. Once again our daytime high temperatures will soar into the low to mid single-digits in southwest, red river valley, southeast portions. (0 to 7C). The northern inter lakes, Manitoba lakes , and areas east of lake Winnipeg will see below zero temperatures. Winnipeg: Cloudy, high 3°C .Brandon: Cloudy, high plus 4°C. 

Second half of the week: A arctic cold front looks too slide south into southern sections of Manitoba which will drop our temperatures slightly below normal. This means instead of seeing temperatures in the plus range we will see temperatures likely slide into the mid minus single-digits for day time high temperatures (-1C to -9C) and high minus single digits or low minus teens for overnight lows (-9 to -15C).

Warm spell to continue

Southern Manitoba over the past 7-10 days or so has had exceptionally warmer than average temperatures, with a majority of day time high temperatures reaching a few degrees above zero and in the low to mid minus single digits for daytime highs. A ridge of high pressure looks to establish itself over the northwestern part of the unites states over the coming days and we will be on the northern end of it. This should have a significant effect on our weather, read on to find out how that will affect us below. 

Wednesday: Southern Manitoba will be on The edge of an area of High pressure, as we are on the northern end of it warm air should filter in once again on Wednesday. Some cloud cover from the overnight hours will clear out of the province in the early afternoon hours. Not much in the way of weather is expected, temperatures for parts of southern Manitoba will soar above 0°C and it may be slightly cooler or below zero in the interlakes region. For those wondering I’m expecting temperatures between -3°C in the southeast where the cooler temperatures will be and areas for the rest of the part of the southern half of the province will see temperatures between 3C and -2°C. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy and mostly sunny with a few clouds high temperature +3°C .Brandon: Sunny with a few clouds high temperature +2°C. 

Wednesday Night: The mild and calm weather conditions continue , mainly clear skies are expected with a few to scattered clouds around. A westerly flow aloft will continue to provide mild temperatures. A Majority of southern Manitoba will experience temperatures between -6C and -12°C. Areas in southeastern Manitoba will be on the cooler side. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy, low temperature -7°C. Brandon: Mainly clear, low temperature -6°C. 

Thursday: Will be one of the warmer days of the latter half of the week. The sun will be out and it will definitely not feel like December in fact we may see a large portion of southern Manitoba, with temperatures above zero (0 to 5C) especially towards the parklands into south western Manitoba. Areas from the red river valley, interlakes and into southeastern portions will be slightly above zero to a degree or 2 below zero (3 to -4C). Winnipeg: Partly cloudy, high temperature +3°C. Brandon: Sunny high temperature +3°C. 

Thursday Night: Cloudy skies are expected in increasing amounts for the region, a arctic cold front will drive south throughout the overnight hours. Behind it a weak high pressure system that will move into northern Ontario will allow for cooler air to filter in overnight. Low temperatures for the region will drop into the high minus single digits -5°C to -12°C. Areas in the red river valley may experience cooler temperatures. Winnipeg: Cloudy, low temperature -10°C windchill -14°C. Brandon: Cloudy, low temperature -8°C. 

Friday: Cloudy skies and seasonal temperatures are expected on Friday, extreme south western portions of Manitoba may experience temperatures a couple of degrees above zero (0 to 2C). The rest of the region parklands, interlakes , southeast Manitoba during the day will see temperatures a few degrees below zero, (-2 to -5C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, high temperature -3C. Brandon: Partly to mostly cloudy high temperature 0°C. 

The weekend: There could be a chance for freezing rain on Saturday in the interlakes and red river valley area, otherwise calm weather is expected. Above average temperatures will continue the majority of our temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits just slightly above zero (4 to -5C) for daytime highs and overnight lows in the low minus single digits to low minus double digits (-5 to -14C).