Winter Storm and Real Winter Like Temperatures on the way!

 As we have experienced warmer than average weather over the past couple of days ,, we will be expecting a transition into some fairly unsettled weather as we head into the work week. A Colorado low pressure system looks to impact the northern plains. with the potential for the seasons first significant snowfall. Read on to find out more. 

00Z Model data above, 12 Z Model data below this ... My forecast was based on the 00z model run . Just goes to show the vast difference in model output.  

Monday: During the day Monday , a warm front and stationary front will sit over western sections into the interlake part of Manitoba. Along this front light snow will likely occur during the morning hours in southwestern Manitoba tapering to flurries in the afternoon. Cloudy skies are expected in the morning , with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions expected by the afternoon hours. Temperatures ahead on Monday are expected to be in the low to mid single digits in the SW (-1 to -6C) to the mid to high minus single digits in the south central and the southeast (-5 to -10C). Winnipeg: Cloudy then partly cloudy, 30% chance of flurries in the morning. High -8C. Brandon: Light snow in the morning then partly. High -5C. 

Monday Night: An approaching low pressure system will move into areas of southern Saskatchewan and Montana on Monday night, which will push in more unsettled or I say perfect weather for Christmas coming up. As it approaches our area , increasing cloud is expected along with some possible patchy fog for much of the region. Temperatures will stay pretty stationary overnight, only rising a degree or two, mainly only looking at lows in the mid to high minus single digits (- 3 to -10). Winnipeg: Cloudy, low -5C. Brandon: Cloudy, low -6C. 

Tuesday: The area of low pressure that I mentioned above will be moving into the region during the morning hours. The centre of the low should remain in North Dakota however as we will be on the northern side, an area of heavy snow will traverse Across much of southern Manitoba including the Interlake portions of the province. There is a chance for some mixing especially in areas along the international border with a slight risk of freezing rain. Snow will fall for majority of the day with periods of heavier snow occurring often on at different intervals. It appears the heaviest snow will fall in a swath from Brandon into the interlakes, Winnipeg and Nopiming provincial park where 15 to 40cm of snow is possible. The area that could see the possibility of more than 30cm of snow is in the interlakes and Bissett regions. (See photo above). Areas surrounding the heaviest snow will receive upwards of 5 to 15cm of snow that includes southwestern Manitoba, parkland. and Southeastern Manitoba. Justin will give you guys updates on the data for areas of heaviest possible snowfall as model information comes in. Notes expect blowing snow with reduced Visibility as low as 1km to 0.5km in the heaviest snow. Temperatures will remain on the mild side as the storm impacts the region areas in Southeastern Manitoba will be in the low minus single digits (-2 to -5C) whereas areas in south western Manitoba the parklands and interlakes will experience temperatures in the mid minus single digits to high minus single digits (-6 to -10C). Winnipeg: Snow beginning In the morning, Snowfall at times heavy with blowing snow and near zero visibility at times. Amount 20-30cm. High -3C. Brandon: Snow beginning in the morning, snow and blowing snow with near zero visibility at times. Snowfall amount: 15-20cm. High -7C. Note: keep in mind these are initial forecast amounts for snowfall we will update you as the latest model data comes in there is a chance that these numbers could change before the day Tuesday.

Tuesday Night: An arctic cold front will drop south into Minnesota and North Dakota, behind it will put an end to the above normal temperature pattern. Cloudy skies are expected overnight for a large part except SW MB in the early morning. Winds will also be out of the north west. Even with the cloudy conditions we will still see Overnight lows plummeting into the mid to high minus double digit temperature range, with a swath of -20°C temperatures occurring in the inter lake portions into central portion of Manitoba. Wind chills overnight will drop into the high minus twenty degree range into the mid to high -30°C range overall (-25 to -36C) windchills are possible. A rare exception I will note that northern Manitoba will see windchills in the low -40s. What is weird about this set up is that our overnight low temperatures wont be reached least until 9 AM instead of 6 AM. Winnipeg: Snow ending in the evening then cloudy, clear shortly after sunrise. Low -22C. Windchill -36C. Brandon: Snow ending in the early evening then cloudy clearing towards sunrise, low -20C. Windchill -30. 

Wednesday: As usual in this kind of cold pattern a large area of high-pressure will be sitting over the northern section of Manitoba, ahead of it a strong Northwesterly flow will be in place. Sunny skies should finally be in place , we have had a unusually long period of cloudy days. The only negative about this is it will be a cold day!! Temperatures will only sit in the mid to low minus teens (14 to -20C) for daytime highs. Windchills will be closer to -20 to -25C. Winnipeg: Sunny high temperature -17°C, wind chill -21°C. Brandon: sunny high temperature -14°C. Windchill -20°C. 

Second half of the week: It appears the below normal facilitation pattern will continue into the weekends it’s hard to find out at the moment how cold it will get indications are our daytime high temperatures will be in the mid minus double digits or slightly colder. With overnight lows in the -20°C range and windchills into the -30C range.

I will have a post ready for Wednesday, however for Friday through Wednesday next week I will not be doing any posts as the holiday season is here!