Cooler Weather Trend On the Way For Southern Manitoba, rain and wet conditions also likely this week.

Hello Folks I know its been a while since I last posted a blog I have been busy with moving and I also had to get over the flu a few weeks ago. I am back and better than ever though. I will have quick details for you all on the upcoming week ahead for our weather pattern. 

Rainfall accumulations as forecast by the NAM model, a general 5 to 10mm of rain is likely before another batch moves in to our area on Thursday. 

Tuesday: Southern Manitoba will be on the verge of another area of low pressure which will enter the region and during the evening hours, most like cloudy skies will likely be in place throughout the afternoon and evening. Precipitation including rain will move into areas of southwestern Manitoba late in the afternoon. Temperatures during the afternoon on Tuesday will soar into the high single digits and low teens the warmest of the weather will be across the south except for areas of the far northern eastern and western side of Manitoba . Tuesday Night: Rain will begin moving across southern Manitoba into far central regions during the overnight hours, there will be some regions in western Manitoba specifically by dauphin and Swan River that could experience periods of snow during the overnight hours. A general 3 to 5mm of rain is likely in all areas of the south except areas of the southwest part of Manitoba where 5 to 10mm of rainfall is more likely overnight. Temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the low to mid single digits with the majority of the region seeing low temperatures between one and five degrees Celsius.

Wednesday: During the day on Wednesday the rain which we experienced on Tuesday night will Will move north along with a frontal system into northern sections Manitoba, areas of southern Manitoba will start seeing increased levels of instability with a possibility of seeing thunderstorm energy values between 300 to 700 joules per kilogram there is a possibility of seeing weak garden variety thunderstorms in a scattered nature across southern sections of the region towards late afternoon areas at higher highest risk right now appear to be southwestern Manitoba portions of the Red River Valley and the escarpments of Western Manitoba by Riding Mountain National Park. This may change depending on the frontal system that is forecast to move through on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday for majority of the South will likely be in the upper single digits and low teens areas north of highway one for Central Western Manitoba the Interlakes and Central Eastern Manitoba will only see high temperatures in the mid to high single digits.

Wednesday night: A low pressure system developing is forecast to move into southern Manitoba with a wide swath of rain areas all areas will be impacted by this overnight as a system lifts into our region, The majority of the rain will be impacting our region by Thursday morning expect scattered showers with mostly cloudy skies during the overnight. Into the morning is when majority of the rain should start falling for a region between the saskatchewan/Manitoba Border and Winnipeg areas further east may not get impacted until later on the day on Thursday. By the morning hours areas of southwestern Manitoba will have received between 3 to 5millimeters of rain. Overnight low values will likely drop into a fairly mild overnight roll considering the last few nights will be a lot colder I'm looking at values between five and 10 degrees Celsius during the overnight mainly from a swath from From Pilot Mound to Winnipeg N into Gimli and SE into Sprague areas north of that will see overnight lows in the mid single digits.\

The second half of the week: Looks like unsettled weather weather will continue with rain persisting as a result of troughing over the Canadian Prairie provinces which will contribute to more rainfall accumulations by the end of the week we will know more on this low pressure system by Wednesday afternoon I will have another weather blog update on Thursday to detail this weather system that's coming in for our end of the week into the weekend which will hopefully experience some calmer weather conditions towards Friday.

Major Rainfall first of the season for Southern Manitoba.

Hello folks of southern Manitoba this is another weather update, we have some interesting weather on the way a low pressure system developing in Colorado will be moving into southern portions of Manitoba including areas in the north even though that I do not cover that forecast area there is a chance for some significant snowfall in areas of northern Manitoba and portions of Western Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan. This is the first of hopefully many low pressure systems to deliver moisture to desperately needed areas especially areas in the South that experience a drought this past winter. Read on to find out more about the weather impacts that are forecast with this low pressure system. 

Rain forecast to impact areas of southern Manitoba, system is going to impact the region. 

*Please note that forecast for temperatures will not be mentioned in the daily outlook they will be mentioned at the bottom at this post to allow for more clarification on snowfall and precipitation patterns for this forecast system.*

***This blog may be a little bit shorter than normal I am in the process of creating a playlist for my radio show tomorrow on CKUW so I am in the middle of multitasking but this blog should be sufficient enough for those who are looking for information on the upcoming rainfall expected over our region. *** 

Tuesday: Low pressure system will be off to our S in the United States in North Dakota during the afternoon ahead of it in the warm sector and to the north of the low a wide swathe of rain will begin moving into southern Manitoba starting in southwestern parts of the province from pilot mound to Portage La Prairie moving north east throughout the day by around lunchtime areas of the Red River valley and eastern Manitoba can expect to be seeing rain at times heavy persisting into the evening hours. This rain will basically cover all of southern sections of Manitoba including Western Parklands. Given the fact that this rain will be stalling over western parts of Manitoba for a majority of the afternoon on Tuesday they can expect to see the heavier amounts. If the heavier rain decides to set up further to the east in the Red River valley Pemina Valley and eastern Manitoba amounts instead of 10 to twenty five millimeters will be in the 25 to forty five millimeter range however current forecasts show that areas of the southwest and the West will receive between 20 and forty millimeters of rain areas in eastern Manitoba will be seen between 10 to twenty five millimeters of rain although heavier amounts in convective rainfall. There is a possibility that during the early afternoon to mid afternoon there may be a chance at seeing some thunderstorms but that chance appears to be very slim and only areas of the Red River valley and over areas by Lake Manitoba appear to be at the highest chance expect only a couple rumbles of Thunder as a possibility.

Tuesday night: a cooler air starts wrapping in behind the system bringing a possibility of snow mix with rain mainly areas of The Red River valley points east into eastern Manitoba areas south of highway one also have a possibility of seeing this. It may continue into the morning hours however given the fact that roads will still be warm a lot of the snow will melt on contact. Models are disagreeing on the placement of where the transition to snow and if that happens depends on where the cold air wraps around behind the system. There is a risk that areas from just north of the international border all the way into the interlakes for all of Southern Manitoba will possibly see some slight snow accumulations on Tuesday night. This will not be a significant snowfall by any means as majority of the precipitation is forecast to fall as rain. 

(Rainfall Totals in map shown above)

Wednesday: During Wednesday in the morning hours a broad swath of rain mixed with snow will move through southern ports of Manitoba majority of the snow should melt on contact in urban centres including some rural areas I'm expecting that this rain snow or just plain snow fall will end towards the early to mid afternoon hours. The model that's putting out the highest snowfall amounts is the NAM NEST which is suggesting areas mainly north of Winnipeg into the Interlakes W to Dauphin can expect to see between 10+ centimeters of snow, I highly doubt that this is going to happen for areas South of the Manitoba Lakes in the Red River Valley, eastern parts of the province will escape this with only about one to about nine or ten centimeters possible. 

Wednesday night: It appears that areas of our region will escape the majority of the snow that is expected to hit northern areas., in southern sections of Manitoba will expect to be mostly cloudy or partly cloudy during the overnights winds will be also out of the north making the temperatures quite brisk. There is a chance for some Lake effect flurries or showers during the overnight. The bulk of the precipitation which impacted the region on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in Ontario at the time.

During the second half of the week the low pressure system is forecast to impact areas of northern Manitoba however the effects will be felt minimally in areas of southern Manitoba with only flurries or rain showers of possibility during Thursday and Thursday night Friday will be much calmer as low pressure system moves into northwestern Ontario. 

Temperatures for the period:

 Tuesday expecting high temperatures in the afternoon in the mid to high teens with the exception of Southwestern Manitoba seeing high temperatures in the high single digits, 

Temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the lower end of the single digit mark areas may escape seeing overnight low values around the freezing mark.

Temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the mid to high signal digit range areas of the southeastern parts of Manitoba will be likely to see the warmer values during the afternoon.

 Wednesday night overnight low temperatures will likely drop into the low single digits in some areas especially in areas of southwestern Manitoba around the zero to minus 5 degrees Celsius mark. Areas east of the Pembina Valley will escape the overnight lows around 0C.