Major Rainfall first of the season for Southern Manitoba.

Hello folks of southern Manitoba this is another weather update, we have some interesting weather on the way a low pressure system developing in Colorado will be moving into southern portions of Manitoba including areas in the north even though that I do not cover that forecast area there is a chance for some significant snowfall in areas of northern Manitoba and portions of Western Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan. This is the first of hopefully many low pressure systems to deliver moisture to desperately needed areas especially areas in the South that experience a drought this past winter. Read on to find out more about the weather impacts that are forecast with this low pressure system. 

Rain forecast to impact areas of southern Manitoba, system is going to impact the region. 

*Please note that forecast for temperatures will not be mentioned in the daily outlook they will be mentioned at the bottom at this post to allow for more clarification on snowfall and precipitation patterns for this forecast system.*

***This blog may be a little bit shorter than normal I am in the process of creating a playlist for my radio show tomorrow on CKUW so I am in the middle of multitasking but this blog should be sufficient enough for those who are looking for information on the upcoming rainfall expected over our region. *** 

Tuesday: Low pressure system will be off to our S in the United States in North Dakota during the afternoon ahead of it in the warm sector and to the north of the low a wide swathe of rain will begin moving into southern Manitoba starting in southwestern parts of the province from pilot mound to Portage La Prairie moving north east throughout the day by around lunchtime areas of the Red River valley and eastern Manitoba can expect to be seeing rain at times heavy persisting into the evening hours. This rain will basically cover all of southern sections of Manitoba including Western Parklands. Given the fact that this rain will be stalling over western parts of Manitoba for a majority of the afternoon on Tuesday they can expect to see the heavier amounts. If the heavier rain decides to set up further to the east in the Red River valley Pemina Valley and eastern Manitoba amounts instead of 10 to twenty five millimeters will be in the 25 to forty five millimeter range however current forecasts show that areas of the southwest and the West will receive between 20 and forty millimeters of rain areas in eastern Manitoba will be seen between 10 to twenty five millimeters of rain although heavier amounts in convective rainfall. There is a possibility that during the early afternoon to mid afternoon there may be a chance at seeing some thunderstorms but that chance appears to be very slim and only areas of the Red River valley and over areas by Lake Manitoba appear to be at the highest chance expect only a couple rumbles of Thunder as a possibility.

Tuesday night: a cooler air starts wrapping in behind the system bringing a possibility of snow mix with rain mainly areas of The Red River valley points east into eastern Manitoba areas south of highway one also have a possibility of seeing this. It may continue into the morning hours however given the fact that roads will still be warm a lot of the snow will melt on contact. Models are disagreeing on the placement of where the transition to snow and if that happens depends on where the cold air wraps around behind the system. There is a risk that areas from just north of the international border all the way into the interlakes for all of Southern Manitoba will possibly see some slight snow accumulations on Tuesday night. This will not be a significant snowfall by any means as majority of the precipitation is forecast to fall as rain. 

(Rainfall Totals in map shown above)

Wednesday: During Wednesday in the morning hours a broad swath of rain mixed with snow will move through southern ports of Manitoba majority of the snow should melt on contact in urban centres including some rural areas I'm expecting that this rain snow or just plain snow fall will end towards the early to mid afternoon hours. The model that's putting out the highest snowfall amounts is the NAM NEST which is suggesting areas mainly north of Winnipeg into the Interlakes W to Dauphin can expect to see between 10+ centimeters of snow, I highly doubt that this is going to happen for areas South of the Manitoba Lakes in the Red River Valley, eastern parts of the province will escape this with only about one to about nine or ten centimeters possible. 

Wednesday night: It appears that areas of our region will escape the majority of the snow that is expected to hit northern areas., in southern sections of Manitoba will expect to be mostly cloudy or partly cloudy during the overnights winds will be also out of the north making the temperatures quite brisk. There is a chance for some Lake effect flurries or showers during the overnight. The bulk of the precipitation which impacted the region on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in Ontario at the time.

During the second half of the week the low pressure system is forecast to impact areas of northern Manitoba however the effects will be felt minimally in areas of southern Manitoba with only flurries or rain showers of possibility during Thursday and Thursday night Friday will be much calmer as low pressure system moves into northwestern Ontario. 

Temperatures for the period:

 Tuesday expecting high temperatures in the afternoon in the mid to high teens with the exception of Southwestern Manitoba seeing high temperatures in the high single digits, 

Temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the lower end of the single digit mark areas may escape seeing overnight low values around the freezing mark.

Temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the mid to high signal digit range areas of the southeastern parts of Manitoba will be likely to see the warmer values during the afternoon.

 Wednesday night overnight low temperatures will likely drop into the low single digits in some areas especially in areas of southwestern Manitoba around the zero to minus 5 degrees Celsius mark. Areas east of the Pembina Valley will escape the overnight lows around 0C.