Hot and Humid Weekend Ahead!

The weather has already shown off that it can get hot just yesterday (Friday) we experienced high temperatures right in and around the 25 to 30C in many areas of the south. Some severe weather also occurred just south of Winnipeg producing quarter sized hail and some intense wind gusts up to 80km/h in areas just south of Steinbach towards Emerson and along highway 75. Today was just a preview of what's ahead for the weekend get ready,the heat, humidity and thunderstorms are going to make a return.

Dewpoints above 20C will make
it feel tropical out, enjoy it! 

Severe Weather Saturday

Saturday will start off humid and quite warm for most, our high temperatures will quickly budge up into the high twenties to low 30's. Factoring in the dewpoints being in the low to mid 20's we will be dealing with a very humid airmass and it will feel oppressive heat will be present in a huge way as humidex's surpass 40C. As a result of the heat and humidity our atmosphere will become extremely unstable based on various models meaning there will be a risk for severe weather throughout the day. Here is how it could play out, a frontal system is expected to slide through southern manitoba during the morning sparking off showers and thunderstorms in areas just to the east of Winnipeg however this will not be the main story for tomorrow's severe weather. Once this systems clears out sunny skies will overtake but the next threat will come in the evening as storms possibly form in Southeast Sask/Southwest Manitoba and merge into a line of storms some possibly severe what I call a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). The line will likely progress eastwards  through areas of southern manitoba through the evening and overnight, likely reaching the RRV and Winnipeg in the late evening. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible along with intense to frequent lightning. I will post details in the thunder storm outlook center, and will update the comments as needed to provide information on the evolving situation.

Storms would clear overnight and then there will again be a potential for storms on Sunday.

Thundery Sunday

Sunday looks like it will be a quieter day weather wise and as a result there won't be severe storms but still a chance for showers and non severe thunderstorms as a cold front slumps southwards our high temperatures will be in the mid to high 20's. 

Potentially Stormy Week Ahead

Much nicer weather will return to start our week however there will be multiple storm chances as they return on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. High's still in the mid to high 20's.

Summer Weather Finally Returns!

A ridge of high pressure staying in the province for the next day or two will allow for some dry weather to linger around to help us dry out. After our last wind and rainstorm hit the province that sure did a number on all of us we now are welcomed with a return to the summer heat making our forecast look much better than it has been as of late, giving us the chance to get out and take in what summer has to offer.

The dry weather can't make a return soon enough since the flooding in the southwestern part of the province continues to worsen, several communities have declared a state of emergency and this weather is perfect for the recovery efforts. 

Today will offer beautiful conditions with sunshine and light winds out of the southwest along with temperatures right around normal, anywhere from 25 degrees in the south central part of the province to the 23C and 24C range in the southwest. Our low's will be a different story though as they drop to around or just slightly above the 10C mark.

Friday will be a much warmer day in the south as high temperatures sneak up in and around the 28-29C for much of the region as a warm front slides into the area, there also appears to be a warm front sliding into the area which will offer a slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Our overnight lows will only slide down into the 18C range in the RRV while lows of 16C in the southwest can be expected. 


Our true summer weather comes around on the weekend (only one way to describe it hot and humid) a hot and humid airmass will build into areas of southern Manitoba through the day Saturday as dewpoint's rise into the mid 20's our high temperatures of around to slightly above 30 degrees will feel closer to the high 30's to low 40's. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible given the fact there will be systems cascading through the area adding in the fact how hot and humid that it will feel. There is always a chance for that type of weather with such high heat and humidity. Details on the severe weather risk will be posted in tomorrow's post as things still remain quite uncertain over the weekend.


Get out and enjoy this real summer weather as we finally get a chance to dry out!

Rainfall Storm Summary; Severe Weather Ahead

What a rainfall we had this weekend, it was the first major rainfall seen in Manitoba since may of 2010 and we sure did pick up a lot areas in the red river valley were hardest hit along with areas just east of Winnipeg. Beausejour picked up a whopping 90mm of rain while Lockport got in at 120mm of rain thanks to a training area of thunderstorms, in comparison areas of Silver Heights in my region of Winnipeg picked up 87mm of rain. Southwest Manitoba was quite lucky where they only picked up at most 15mm of rain. As this Colorado  system came in it was the wettest seen on June 15th since 1928 when we only picked up 15mm of rain here in Winnipeg. Most amount of rainfall I have seen in my lifetime living in my neighburhood. Those Mosquito's  are definitely going to be out on a rampage in the next few weeks after the rain we recieved and what is still to come.

Below is a list of the rainfall recieved at each location: Via @WeatherInThePeg

Storms on The Way

After our weekend of rainfall and nice weather that we had to start the week our weather will begin to become unsettled as we work our way into the next few days as a few weather systems will march across our region giving the chance for showers and thunderstorms, the trough that is currently in place in southern manitoba could contribute to the development of showers and thunderstorms this evening in areas of southern manitoba, lifting eastwards as the night progresses.  As a result expect heavy rainfall in southern manitoba with as much as 70mm possible in Brandon and the parklands.

By about midnight all shower activity should end, however another system looks like it will come in the day tomorrow as a result there will be the chances for showers and possibly thundershowers as the storm system slides south from the interlakes. Our temperatures should remain on the cool side at around the mid 20's, it will get much nicer come the overnight hours in the south. 

How is the weekend looking?

At the moment there appears to be a system arriving into Manitoba from Saskatchewan that will either setup further west or further to the east on Saturday, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms come late afternoon or evening depending on where it sets up and cloudcover. There could be severe weather in the province either west or east of Winnipeg  Different story if this system encounters cooler air and cloud, there would be a likelihood of mainly showers for the majority. 
High's will be in the high 20's and humidex levels near 30C, though cooler if we get under cloudcover. 

Regardless, Models are having a tough time resolving the strength and location of this system so as it changes feel free to follow the updates in the comments section below.      

Sunday overall looks like it could be a much better day weatherwise with high temperatures soaring into the high 20's along with lots of sunshine, once our system clears out. Improving weather come next week, here in Southern areas of the province. Good to hear after how horrible and gloomy has been.  

Feel Free to take a look and see what is ahead at my forecast page, enjoy the rest of your week and the weekend ahead!

Another Weekend Rainfall and Cool start to the week

Our weekend has already been a rainy one with thunderstorms off and on already 20 to 30mm has fallen with this system in Southern Manitoba, areas already soaked by rainfall will also experience another round as another wave of rainfall spreads north into Southern Manitoba from North Dakota. 

Rainfall amounts through the end of the weekend

We have already seen one round of showers move through the Winnipeg area ahead of the next batch of showers and storms the next round are the ones that could be quite heavy at times amounting to nearly 30mm. Rain will persist as this system moves through tonight and tomorrow, there will be a chance of storms in the day tomorrow along with rainshowers likelihood of picking up another 10mm for the majority of the south. Temperatures will stay near or slightly above 15C for highs. 

This system will not only slide out of the province by evening but it will leave behind cloudy conditions to start your Monday. Monday will start off Cloudy but conditions look like they will clear out by late morning leaving behind sunny condition's and based off the GFS we should be dealing with high's from 20 to 25C along the USA border and 15 to 20C a little further north of the TransCanada Highway. 


As we head into Tuesday there will be a chance for showers with little instability in place they shouldn't last long, however we still manage to reach the high teens. Wednesday should be a bit warmer with highs in the mid 20's with lots of sunshine still, chances of precipitation from showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday late in the day (instability levels in the picture on the right side).



Long Range
Models are hinting at more seasonable temperatures for late week into the weekend, closer to or above the 25C mark. But I'll keep you posted on any changes as this is a far ways off yet. Also Severe Weather season is also around the corner so it wont be long until we see the type of weather us storm lovers enjoy.

Week of Sunshine and Thunderstorms

After what was a stormy weekend here in Winnipeg and southern Manitoba, we will be experiencing a few days where the weather will be wet and stormy in places as we have a couple of shortwaves that will move through. Although it will be stormy a few of our days will be beautiful and we'll have the chance to get out and enjoy it. 

Storms look Possible Tuesday

Going into your day Tuesday it is looking like it is going to be a beautiful day temperatures could exceed 20C and arrive in the mid 20's with dew points close behind because of that we could have dew points of 15 to 19C giving high levels of humidity. 

A frontal system could go through areas of southern Manitoba tomorrow afternoon and given how humid it could be we are looking at thunderstorm development. A Weather Moment mentioned that at the low end we could see small hail and gusty winds or strong to severe storms with a tornado threat and potential damaging storms at the high end. Threat should ease by the evening I will provide updates on Twitter as well as the blog. 

Storms also look likely on Wednesday but not as high as tuesdays chances, highs of 25 to 29C Wednesday.


The long range outlook looks like we could be in for some severe weather this Thursday or Friday as another system comes in from the states, all models have had this in their outlook for the past 4 days and they still yet have to resolve the timing and features as it is important in determining when and where the storms or severe weather will occur. Best bet is Southwest MB first then into the Red River Valley Basin and Eastern Manitoba. Till then temperatures through until June look great and our weather might stay the same in terms of storms but great temperatures right in and around seasonal.

Summer Returns But With Storms

Finally the first hot couple of days are on the way as the warmth returns into SouthMB associated with a airmass from the Gulf of Mexico, however it comes with a price thunderstorms are likely and some could be severe as we go into the weekend. 

For the day ahead there will be a chance of showers and storms out in southwestern areas of southern manitoba and the parklands but they will be weak if and when they form meaning non severe but a few could be stronger. Otherwise clear and sunny skies can be expected with high temperatures in the mid to high 20's but you will be happy to hear that our weather will even be hotter Saturday. 

As for Saturday things get a bit unsettled with our temperatures approaching 30C the heat and humidity will create perfect brewing conditions for thunderstorms all across southern Manitoba some could be severe but given that shear will be present but not high enough storms won't be tornadic but nonetheless they will be elevated. As a result large hail and damaging winds along with heavy rainfall will be likely.The threat will ease by late evening but really be high in the evening, humid conditions in the mid 30's to high 30's will be present Saturday. 

Sunday will be a different story in southern Manitoba a cold front will slice through areas of southern manitoba during the morning sunday and leave behind it instability for storms during the rest of the day Sunday meaning fairly good chances for severe weather on Sunday. I'm not sure about the dynamics but the rest of the day looks good once storms clear by evening. Better weather returns for the week, however things are looking more stormy come the tuesday and wednesday timeframe. Heat continues as we go through the rest of the month although a little cooler nowhere near below normal.

Warming Weather On The Way (Pictures of the system will be added on Sunday

After what has been a difficult past three months our weather will finally be taking a turn for the better but not before we undergo stormy condition's for the end of Victoria Day Weekend in what seems like a normal tradition for the province. An area of low pressure from the west coast of the united states will make it's way into southern Manitoba by
late Sunday through Tuesday, pumping  rich moisture from the united states out ahead of it allowing for shower and thunderstorm chances on Sunday in the west and Monday as well Tuesday for the eastern part of the south. CAPE and LI's will be high enough for storms to be non severe with a slight chance of a few becoming severe on Monday/Tuesday, however tornadoes DO NOT look likely. Now most of the rainfall we get will be driven convectively so there could be higher amounts in places of the Red River Valley up where we could see 15mm. Rain should clear out of the province by late Tuesday, leaving behind cooler temperatures but not too bad, we should recover to near and above seasonal values as we get closer to the mid to late week time frame. Long term data continues to show a chance where we could get to and stay above seasonal values into June meaning mid to high 20C temps, but it remains to be seen after such a bad year we experienced for six months with our horrible winter. Let's hope it gets better, we need it too!

Hope you enjoy your holiday weekend everyone!