Snowy, Messy weekend of winter weather, albeit mild temperatures ahead.

 Much of our region has had a break when it comes to unsettled weather for the last several weeks, in fact we’ve been having a long snow drought. Milder weather has arrived for us however that will likely bring a change as we head into the weekend. This change I’m talking about isn’t related to colder weather, I’m sorry to be the bear of bad news however it appears that we will be seeing a SNOWSTORM. Find out what that means in the latest blog post. 

Much of southern sections of Manitoba are likely to experience some significant weather over the next 48-72 hours. This could also end up being the heaviest snowfall we have seen in recent months as we have been in an ongoing snow drought. Let’s have a look at the latest weather data from the models. 

Friday (above): Ahead of the low pressure system a warm air mass will sit over the area with sunny skies present, this system will likely show up in the evening hours. Temperatures on the day Friday will rise into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -4C). Melting will likely take place. Snow will begin this evening as seen below.

Friday Night (Above): This is when the weather will begin to transform into a miserable snowy mess, yes I said snow. Don’t slap the weather man. A large swath of snow will develop on the northside of a 995MB Low and in the process will likely begin moving into southeastern Saskatchewan as it encounters a moist airmass, not hot enough for thunderstorms yet. By about late evening all of southwestern Manitoba should be experiencing heavy snow and blowing snow. Initial thoughts are that it should begin filling into the rest of southern Manitoba by the early morning hours. Read to the end to find out storm total accumulations. Overnight lows on Friday night will likely sit in the mid to high minus single digits around (-7C to -10C) colder the further north you go. 

Saturday (Above): Much of southern Manitoba will be enveloped by heavy snowfall in the afternoon, blowing snow will be an issue and highway and city travel will not be recommended. I’m assuming that possible blizzard conditions will be possible as well. High temperatures on the day high temperatures will sit in the low to mid minus single digits (-5 to -9C).

Saturday night (Above): Snow will continue sitting over our area with a strong influence of blowing snow, winds will be blowing out of the east to southeast around the low pressure system sitting off to our south. Moderate to heavy snow will continue over the southeast and south central part of Manitoba until about shortly after midnight when light snowfall will occur as the system begins to move southeast. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high minus single digits (-5C to -9C), with the exceptions of the parklands seeing low temperatures drop again into the minus low teens (-10 to -12C).

Sunday: Light snow will continue for the first half of the day with winds shifting out of the northeast, blowing snow will likely die out by the afternoon. Right now there's not a lot of signals for blowing snow as it was on Saturday. The low pressure system as I mentioned will begin moving further off into Minnesota. Temperatures will likely see values in the low to mid minus single digits (-3C to -7C).

Sunday Night: Calmer weather will likely envelope the region and it is good news because this system will have had some significant impacts. Colder weather will likely arrive on the backside as winds shift out of the north. Areas in southwestern Manitoba will likely see some very cold air on the backside with temperatures dropping into the minus low 20's, windchills may sit around the -30C mark. Areas further east will see lows in the high minus single digits (-6C to -8C) and some patch areas in the east in the low minus teens (-10 to -12C). 

STORM TOTALS:  Areas north of the trans canada highway will see 5 to 10cm, further south you go there will be higher amounts. Heavier impacts will be felt in the western half of Manitoba where the parklands and westman to lake Manitoba will see a general 15 to 20cm, areas just past Gladstone a general 10 to 15cm will be likely that also includes areas of the red river valley. As you go south into the Duck mountains and Peace Gardens along the american border in SW Manitoba towards the american border in the red river valley 20 to 25cm of snow will likely occur there. Amounts could change so all the details of this may not be accurate. Higher amounts are possible. See photo at the top for information, or you can check www.spotwx.com to find out your specific point of interest for snowfall totals. 

The week ahead: Clear signals are in place for the mild weather to continue with high temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits, overnight lows as expected a little colder than expected with lows in the minus teens. Signs are that there will be no significant cold blasts of arctic air in the next 1-2 weeks. Blogs from now on will be posted at the beginning and end of every week. Fridays Wednesday and Monday unless my schedule becomes busier than average. I’ll keep you in the loop on any eventful weather that occurs. 

Good News Blog Post COMING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. I'm Back after a break :-)

 Full Weather Details on the way coming in on the day Wednesday. As I write this at 10:47PM it is too late to finish or start a blog post. 

Significant Cold Weather Trend Continues, Relief in Sight

Much of Southern Manitoba and sections of central Manitoba, have been under the influence of extreme cold thanks to a persistent polar vortex sitting over the Canadian prairies. This airmass will likely depart our area over the next few days. I unfortunately had a really bad cold for the past few days, on top of a stomach bug so I wasn't able to post on the extreme cold that was headed for us. It appears this unbearable cold weather trend will likely end sometime later this week. (Below: Photo of the Polar Vortex and extreme cold airmass sitting over much of western Canada. It was cold enough for snow in the Las Vegas Mountain regions this past week I'm not kidding.)

Heading into the second half of the week, not much in the way of weather is likely. There isn't any significant low pressure systems likely heading into the weekend. For the rest of the day today remnants of a low pressure system will drift in with increasing cloud cover and a bit more bearable temperatures with high temperatures today reaching the minus high teens, and low -20's. Windchills will likely be a bit colder with values in the high minus 20's to low minus 30's the coldest of this air will likely be in the Pembina valley into the red river valley. 

Thursday overnight into the morning Friday will likely be cold but with values not nearly as bad during the week, overnight temperatures will drop into the low minus 20's with windchills in the high minus 20's to the low minus 30's. Word of advice for those in the Pembina valley and red river southern regions is where the coldest of that air will exist. Clearing skies are also likely heading into the overnight period.

Friday will end up being a very different day, temperatures will rise into the mid to high minus teens -14C to -18C and overall windchills will be well below minus 30C, in general anywhere from -20C to -26C. Under mostly sunny skies before increasing clouds come in during the late evening.

Friday Night: A batch of cloudcover will likely move into the region with a small disturbance moving through ahead of a warm front, a general trace to 5cm can be expected as this system moves through. Unfortunately our snow drought continues. However after that clears our temperatures will likely take a plunge with our overnight lows dropping into the low minus 20's in western Manitoba, and some central regions. Areas further east will see lows in the high minus teens. In general (-18C to -25C) with overall windchills well into the mid to high minus 20's. 

The Weekend: "End Of The Cold Streak":

Much of what happened this week is likely due to the influences of a fading La Nina and a polar vortex which did sit over our area for a significant length of time. Temperatures will rebound on the day on Saturday with high temperature values in the low to mid minus teens, (-10 to -14C). There will likely be an area of flurries off in eastern Manitoba during the day. Overnight into Sunday morning low temperatures will drop off again into the mid to high minus teens, with windchills in the mid to high minus 20's. Sunday will end up being the mildest weather we have seen since at least the beginning of the month, with our average day time highs soaring into the low to mid minus single digits some areas may even see highs above zero in the extreme southeast. Increasing clouds are also likely during the latter half of the day. The same goes for Sunday night where our lows will drop into the mid to high minus single digits.

The Long Range: As we transition into ENSO Neutral which means theres neither cold nor hot water off the coast of the pacific in south america will allow for less cold snaps, to develop over our area (Below). The only thing I see next week is a low pressure system on the day Monday along a westerly flow that might bring snow. Fluctuating between the low to mid minus single digits to the low minus teens for day time highs with and the lows dropping from the minus teens to low minus twenties on rarer occasions. Warmer values likely during the first half of the week, with fluctuating values towards the latter half of the week. 

Warmer Weather Finally HERE

Much of Southern Manitoba is likely in the beginning stretches of warmer weather we experienced significant arctic air over the last few weeks, parts of North America was under some of the coldest air they have ever experienced. Some regions were so cold that a windchill of -70C was recorded on the east coast some of the coldest air seen if ever. "If there was any doubt about just how brutal Friday's conditions were in New England, look no further than New Hampshire's Mount Washington Observatory, where a wind chill of minus 101 degrees Fahrenheit was recorded." Details of that here:Wind chills in New England are so low, they're literally off the charts (yahoo.com) It appears that dreaded polar vortex has now moved well off into the Atlantic ocean regions. Find out where and when the warmth will be likely be at its most impactful. In this weeks blog. A format change up is also going to appear in this weeks blog as a trial run as I have grown tired of the original day to day format so it will be a brief but quicker summary on the weeks weather. 

This week will be warm and will stick around for quite a while. Tuesday Will start out cold and our temperatures will likely start out in the low teens to the upper minus single digits. By the afternoon Will end up being one of the warmest days of the week, with a very high likelihood of areas in southwestern Manitoba seeing highs from -1C all the way up to plus 2C, areas in the eastern part of Manitoba will unfortunately only see highs in the low minus single digits. The warmth will be welcomed as a warm front moves across southern Manitoba. Some partly cloudy skies are likely too. Similar temperatures likely across the southern half of Manitoba, on Tuesday night. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw lows not any colder than -5C. ******Wednesday morning there will be a risk for freezing rain and freezing drizzle, accumulations are not fully understood yet but I think a general area from Lake Manitoba towards the parklands in the morning. Then by the  afternoon some areas of southcentral Manitoba into southeastern Manitoba. the warmth will likely be at its peak, and high temperatures across the south will be in the high minus single digits to a few degrees above zero (-3C to 2C). Wednesday night will even be on the mild side. However heading into the second half of the week, cooler temperature values return. A clipper system will come through Thursday and drop our temperatures for the second half of the week, will see values in the high minus single digits for day time highs on Thursday and overnight low values return into the low to mid minus teens with a shot at -20C values again. A brief period of cold weather on the night Thursday will lead into warmer more moderated values on Friday into Friday night with highs again in the low to mid minus single digits, as well as overnight. 

Enjoy the warmth!!! My next blog should be better as I am just getting over a cold. 

-Mike McGregor

Extreme Cold Weather Arrives, Polar Vortex will likely influence our weather over the next few weeks.

 Hello Everyone Unfortunately, I have decided to take a hiatus on the blog (meaning weekly blog updates from now on) as not a lot of weather other than the extreme cold will be happening. Until the weather gets more active and if there is a change up in the pattern there probably won't be much in the way of weather updates. I'll still be sharing daily updates in the comments section, something that I havent done since 2014. 

Unfortunately it looks like a polar vortex will likely influence our weather over the next week heading into February. I'm seeing a very cold airmass sitting over much of the region. This same weather features sat over Russia and asia for the last few weeks. It doesn't look like any snowfall or significant weather will occur this weekend into next week. Temperatures will likely only sit in the low to mid minus 20's for day time high temperatures on Saturday this weekend with a likelihood of temperatures overnight into the low to mid minus 30's on the night Saturday. Theres a high chance that windchill values could drop even lower with a majority of the windchills this weekend. I'm seeing windchill values in the low to mid minus 30's during the day on Saturday and Saturday night likely even seeing the low's drop into the mid to high minus 30's. During Sunday similar values in the low -30's are expected.

There is a concern that the windchill values on Sunday night could exceed minus 40C and that will be a high risk for areas of southwestern Manitoba. (Above). 

That photo above is the polar vortex sitting right over southern Manitoba on Friday next week, that will likely end up being the coldest period of weather this year so far. Sunny skies and partly cloudy skies are likely during this period. Heading into the week and next week I see a concern for this cold persisting well into the end of the week. The only breif reprieve I see is during the day on Monday when a clipper will likely pass through the region, with our daytime high values rising into the high minus teens with windchill values in the low minus 30's. The cold weather returns next week with a vengeance, overall daytime high temperatures will fluctuate between the high minus 20's and high minus teens.

(Left): Overnight low's will likely persist in the low minus 30's to the high minus 30's with windchills at a risk of dropping well into the minus 40's. Wednesday looks like it will end up being the coldest period of weather during the morning where windchills could exceed minus 40C. 

(Above): There is a glimmer of hope however, a break in this cold weather is possible by next weekend. I see temperatures returning to the high minus teens, you can thank the return of some low pressure systems drawing in some warmer pacific air. How long this pattern will last is uncertain. In the mean time stay warm, maybe even sip on some hot chocolate. 

Mild Weather Continues for the foreseeable future.

 Much of our region has experienced a very warm January so far with periods of thick fog patches,  freezing rain, freezing drizzle and cloudy skies. A few weeks ago I even noticed it was misty outside. That is something you don’t see in January. Regardless you can thank this to the colder than average weather with the polar vortex impacting Russia and Siberia. Read onto find out when this pattern could change below…. 

Manitoba and Canada with the warmth across the North American Continent….

Below a photo of the polar vortex enveloping Russia and Siberia currently showing temperatures in the -40 to -50C range… That is cold!!! 

We won’t be seeing this polar vortex move locations for a period of time, thankfully. 

As for our weather this trend of warmer weather looks to continue thanks to the presence of a westerly to southerly flow aloft as high pressure sits to the north of us keeps us in a mild flow. Let’s have a look at the details… 

Rest of today: Temperatures over the next 12 hours will be mild, there will be a chance for freezing drizzle or light flurries this early evening moving up the red river valley into the inter lake regions. Cloudy skies will persist.  By this evening temperatures will range from the high minus single digits in the southeast to the low minus teens in the southwest hovering around the -8 to -12C mark. 

Tonight: Flurries and or freezing drizzle will persist in the overnight period into the morning hours mostly in the south central and southeast regions spreading all across the south by the overnight period . Temperatures will drop into the mid to high minus teens overnight . 

Thursday: Daytime high temperatures will rise into the low to mid minus single digits. Mostly cloudy skies are expected with the chance of fog patches developing later in the day. Still a continued chance at flurries and or freezing drizzle across the region. 

Thursday Night: Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low minus teens and high minus single digits. Cloudy skies will persist for those in the southeast; however clearer skies are likely in the southwest. 

Friday: Temperatures will rise into the low to mid minus single digits with areas still seeing unseasonably warm air some areas may be close to the freezing mark!! Break out your shorts . The cloudy skies will likely persist until the afternoon hours with a chance at clearing skies by the mid to late afternoon hours from west to east.  

Friday Night: Some of the mildest air will stick around with lows only sitting in the mid to high minus single digits a chance at colder values however are possible. A batch of snow showers are likely to move into the western portions of Manitoba overnight into Saturday morning. 

The Weekend: Saturday looks mild with daytime high temperatures remaining in the low to high minus single digits, snow showers are possible on Saturday before clearing on Sunday early morning. The cold weather arrives again on Saturday night as a trough moves through. Overnight lows on Saturday night could approach -20C but will sit in the mid to high minus teens windchills will likely be colder in the minus 20C to -25C range. Sunday the mild weather returns with slightly colder values in the high minus single digits and low minus teens. The same values expected to drop into the low to mid minus teens. 

Mild weather to Start 2023, Where did winter go ???

Hello and Happy New Year Everyone!!! 2023 is likely going to be an interesting year ahead weatherwise, with Manitoba you never know what your going to expect. As we look at the weather this weekend I’ll make this post short and sweet. 

Temperatures above for the day on Sunday. Warm and mild. I like it . 😯😊

Saturday: A warm front will be moving into southern sections of Manitoba and across the region from the start to the latter half of the day. Temperatures will be given a boost, with our values from the mid to high minus teens in the morning warming well into the high to mid minus single digits by the afternoon hours. 

Saturday Night: This warm and mild trend looks like it will continue into the overnight on the night Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures will drop only a few degrees below -10C, with a lot of the warm air centred from the northern parklands, inter lakes and nopiming park eastern regions.  I don’t see any signs of precipitation falling until at least mid week. However increasing clouds then cloudy skies will be in place likely over the area Saturday evening persisting well into the weekend  which will help us remain mild. 

Sunday: Temperatures on the day Sunday will likely rise into the mid to high minus single digits so the -4C to -9C range. Sunday night will feature cloudy skies and fog patches are also possible. 

Sunday Night: Temperatures on the night Sunday into Monday will continue basically just sitting in the values they were in all weekend. I’m only seeing the colder values in the central parts of Manitoba with lows there from -10 to -12C. 

The Week Ahead: Southern sections of Manitoba will continue to experience warm weather for the week, with highs in the low to mid to high minus single digits. However warm weather may end during the second half of the week during the overnight periods with lows reaching the low to mid minus teens. We will watch for any changes to this pattern . In the long range. 

The warming trend will likely stick around for next week this is all thanks to what we call ridging, and this is very unusual in the winter season during a La Niña pattern.