Major Colorado Low Arriving, Winters Last Blast 💥 Warmth Likely to follow

UPDATE ON FORECAST SNOWFALL: Read the middle of the post please. 

Well, looks like this winter isn’t done yet, I know a lot of you are royally tired of winter and I am too. I don’t like these long drawn out updates on winter weather but here I am again with another weather update to make sure that at the end of this you smile and leave informed. I am not a meteorologist but a weather specialist so I don’t have knowledge in exact details on this storm. That is why I write these updates. Anyways what we are expecting is a major Colorado low and this system will not only impact a large portion of southern Manitoba but it will have a variety of weather impacts. It’s clear Mother Nature is having a bad temper tantrum or she’s throwing a really bad late April fools joke on us. 😕😕. 

A photo of the Colorado Low Pressure system, that will be sitting over Michigan by Wednesday morning. (above)

For those that just want an idea of what the storm is expected to bring. Here’s info to make it easier for you to know what details are in this post: Details on day to day weather conditions. Storm timing and weather impacts. Snowfall totals and wind outlook. 

Tuesday: A strong low pressure system will likely begin to develop south of the border, Tuesday will be a transition day with cloud cover increasing from the south ahead of the system. For those wondering the likelihood of significant winter weather likely won’t happen until at least Tuesday night. Temperatures on the day Tuesday will likely rise into the low to mid minus single digits (-1C to -5C).

Tuesday Night (Above): Much of southern Manitoba, will be included in the risk of increasing dangerous weather conditions by the morning hours. The Colorado low will be situated over Minnesota however the thing is with these systems is that they draw up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and as a result the cold air on the backside of the system is entrenched in moisture and as a result can create heavy wet snow which will likely be the outcome of this system. Snow and blowing snow will begin lifting north of the border by the early evening to late evening and will likely occur as far north as highway 1 and the inter lakes into the southeast part of Manitoba, some areas of western Manitoba may see this system impact them as well. Models are predicting a northerly track which will reach as far North as the Ashern regions into central Manitoba. Highway conditions will be hazardous as the system hits our region. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to high minus single digits (-4 to -7C).  

Wednesday (Above): This is when the bulk of the system will impact the areas included in the southeast and interlake regions, winds on the backside of this system will likely be very strong given the fact tight isobars or thermal gradients will be in place. There is a risk as mentioned by environment Canada for blizzard conditions to develop in some areas of the red river valley on Wednesday or earlier. Snow will be expected to be the heaviest during the earlier part of the day, before tapering off to moderate snow by the afternoon and evening. Do not go out unless you have to , I won’t be volunteering at Siloam mission on Wednesday because of the storm. Temperatures on the day Wednesday will rise into the mid to high minus single digits (-5 to -2C). 

Wednesday night (Above): Lingering snowfall will likely happen as this system begins to depart off to the east however, a strong northerly flow will still be present and there will be a risk for blizzard conditions or squalls. The good news is that it will begin to weaken as it moves off into Ontario and the eastern states as forecasted. Clear weather will be likely off in western Manitoba which will contribute to a cooler than expected overnight lows more typical of March where values will likely sit in the low to mid minus teens. 🥶🥶🥶. Areas further east under the heavier cloud cover can expect low temperatures in the mid to high minus single digits (-5 to -8C). 

   

Overall Snowfall Totals: A majority of southern Manitoba will be seeing a heavy swath of snow. Main areas will likely get hit hardest from portage la prairie points east to the Ontario border north into the inter lakes where 15 to 25cm of snow could fall. 1PM Tuesday UPDATE ON SNOWFALL TOTALS: West/Southwest Manitoba, 5-10cm. Lake Manitoba to Pilot Mound and Killarney 10 to 15cm of snow. Red River valley, interlakes and Winnipeg to Emerson as far east as Beausejour and Steinbach 15-20+cm. White shell and Sprague 25 to 30cm of snow likely. 

Higher amounts are likely south of the border. Have a look with that information here: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc-met&rh=2023040400&fh=loop&r=ca_c&dpdt=&mc=

Thursday: The winter storm should be out of our region by Thursday morning, with most of our region seeing sunny skies. A large area of our area will likely see temperatures in the low minus single digits. With overnight lows in the low to mid minus teens and high minus single digits. (-8C to -14C). 

Friday and the weekend: Temperatures will return to a more normal level by Friday and for the weekend. With overnight low values in the mid to high single digits and above zero for overnight low temperatures. 

An update will come for Friday on the weekend weather. 

Below average Temperatures continue. Snow ahead for Weekend. When Will Spring Bloom??

 Hello and welcome back to my weather blog, we are going full throttle into Spring now with the melt well underway. Interestingly enough though over the last few weeks overall temperatures have been below normal and below the freezing mark, we are still experiencing melting as the spring sun is higher up and is warmer. For those wondering where our spring weather went to, its been hanging around in BC as usual. There unfortunately is a change up in the dry weather pattern expected as a trough begins to develop with low pressure likely to swing through Sunday and will bring us more snowy weather, maybe even some rain mixing in. There are hints at a colorado low ahead for the week. Regardless a unpleasent end to the weekend is likely, lets look at what we can expect as we head into the weekend. This blog will be smaller as were only going to cover into Tuesday. 

Saturday: Today expect sunny to partly cloudy skies as we sit on the east side of high pressure. Winds should remain out of the south quite light. Temperatures ahead of the low pressure system today will rise into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -3C) by around 5pm, some areas in the southwest ahead of the low pressure system may rise into the low plus single digits (1 to 3C).

Tonight (Above) there will undoubtedly be increasing clouds as the low pressure system moves in. There is also a threat for freezing rain mainly in southwestern sections of the province as the warm sector interacts with colder air at lower levels this threat will move east through the morning hours. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid minus single digits for a large portion of the region (-3 to -6C). 

Sunday (Above): Snow is expected to begin as a low pressure system sits along the international border, snow and blowing snow is more likely in areas of southwestern Manitoba than areas of south central and southeast sections. Areas in the southeast will likely be in a dry slot before a chance at rain and snow develops during the afternoon hours as the warm sector sits over southeastern areas. However there will be a good chance of heavy snow in the interlake regions during the day. A transition to snow should occur in the early evening hours. It appears the heavier snow will fall in southwest and western, interlake portions of Manitoba where snow will be more persistent. High temperatures on Sunday will warm into the low plus single digits in the southeast (1 to 4C), areas further west will only manage to reach the low minus single digits from Portage la Praire westwards.

Sunday night (Above):! we begin to move on to the backside of the low as winds begin blowing out of the north there is a component for blowing snow lower risk than other systems we’ve experienced. Snow will begin to taper down by the late overnight into the early morning hours. Overnight low temperatures will likely drop in the low minus teens in southwest, western , interlake, and parklands regions (-10 to -12C).  Areas in the extreme south central and border regions can see those lows drop into the high minus single digits (-6 to -8C). 

Snowfall totals: A general swath of 10 to 20cm is likely from the American border in the pembina valley region into western sections of Manitoba. This includes the parklands, riding mountain national park and pretty much all areas west of Portage La Prairie. Elsewhere outside these zones a general 5 to 10cm can be expected north of and east of areas of the pembina valley and east of western Manitoba. 

(Some meteorologists humour :.I always get questions about these systems, let’s put this in simple terms Alberta clippers are called clippers because they whizz and they act as annoying little brothers or sisters they only annoy you a little before they leave you alone. Weather in a sense is like your annoying but lovable siblings. 😆. )

Monday and the week ahead: A chance of flurries continues as the system departs, depending on the setup and where the backside of the low moves to a slight chance that some cloud cover could stick around. Regardless Monday night into Tuesday a low pressure system will develop over Colorado and begin to deepen or intensify as it begins to lift north. This system needs to be watched as it has concerns for significant impacts on our overall weather, Minnesota, North Dakota will be impacted as well. Temperatures will remain below normal to start the week with signs that we will still be stuck in the mid to high minus single digits.  Lord help my patience please. 😆. 

SPRING BLOOM SOON? Good news though there are signs that the overall temperature pattern will begin to shift by the middle of next week, with our average high temperatures rising into the low to mid plus side of high temperatures. Still awaiting confirmation on this with new model runs. Yay!!!

-Mike McGregor 

Spring Arrives, slightly below normal temperatures continue. Melting likely Regardless.

As spring arrives today much of the weather that we have had will remain the same, looking ahead at a quiet week of weather our province will likely see temperatures remaining near or slightly below normal. Regardless melting will continue because the spring sun is now high enough even on cold days to allow for melting to occur. The real melt may be further off. Find out when the next batch of warmer or more normal spring like weather can be hopefully expected.

Look at Temperatures on the day Thursday (above). Cooler than average weather continues.

The day on Wednesday should be sunny and bright there will be periods of cloud cover, a system that moved into NW Ontario will on the backside bring in a northwesterly flow. Temperatures for the day today will sit in the low to mid minus single digits, with a slight chance for flurries. 

Tonight much of the same can be expected, with lows in the mid to high minus single digits. Areas further north into the inter lakes can expect lows in the low minus teens, nothing any colder than -12C. 

Thursday: A southerly flow will begin to establish itself over southern sections of Manitoba, fog patches are possible during the morning hours, however little in the way of any weather is likely. Temperatures will continue to see some moderation however they continue to be below our average with highs only able to reach the low to mid minus single digits for Thursday. 

Thursday night: Cloudy weather is likely as overnight lows will drop likely into the mid to high minus single digits, this is likely a transition into warmer overnight lows for a brief period. 

Friday will likely still have values not as cold as in recent times, with high temperatures in the low minus single digits. There will be periods of cloudier weather. 

Friday night a cold front will begin to approach our area but it won’t affect our temperatures much, there will be widespread chance at flurries on Friday night as the front swings through with cloudy skies. Temperatures will likely drop into the low to mid minus single digits to around -10C especially colder in the southwest. 

 

The weekend: That cold front as I discussed will begin to dig south through our area on Saturday above…  leaving behind it a weekend of temperatures well below our average highs. Our temperatures will likely take a swing downwards in the south but that spring sun should help keep our temperatures from diving too significantly. Nothing major weather wise expected but high temperatures for highs on Saturday likely to see the low minus single digits with overnight lows on Saturday night dropping into the mid to high minus teens, near -20C for some in the south. Again on Sunday and Sunday night highs in the mid to high minus single digits. Colder further west you go. Sunday night overnight lows will drop well into the mid to high minus teens and low minus 20’s, or warmer meaning not -20C but near it as the GFS tends to be biased. 

Next week: There are hopes for some change for the colder than average weather to end I see a few days above zero which would be the first of the spring season. We’ll see if that trend continues when I write the next blog on Monday. 

-Mike McGregor

Snowy, Messy weekend of winter weather, albeit mild temperatures ahead.

 Much of our region has had a break when it comes to unsettled weather for the last several weeks, in fact we’ve been having a long snow drought. Milder weather has arrived for us however that will likely bring a change as we head into the weekend. This change I’m talking about isn’t related to colder weather, I’m sorry to be the bear of bad news however it appears that we will be seeing a SNOWSTORM. Find out what that means in the latest blog post. 

Much of southern sections of Manitoba are likely to experience some significant weather over the next 48-72 hours. This could also end up being the heaviest snowfall we have seen in recent months as we have been in an ongoing snow drought. Let’s have a look at the latest weather data from the models. 

Friday (above): Ahead of the low pressure system a warm air mass will sit over the area with sunny skies present, this system will likely show up in the evening hours. Temperatures on the day Friday will rise into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -4C). Melting will likely take place. Snow will begin this evening as seen below.

Friday Night (Above): This is when the weather will begin to transform into a miserable snowy mess, yes I said snow. Don’t slap the weather man. A large swath of snow will develop on the northside of a 995MB Low and in the process will likely begin moving into southeastern Saskatchewan as it encounters a moist airmass, not hot enough for thunderstorms yet. By about late evening all of southwestern Manitoba should be experiencing heavy snow and blowing snow. Initial thoughts are that it should begin filling into the rest of southern Manitoba by the early morning hours. Read to the end to find out storm total accumulations. Overnight lows on Friday night will likely sit in the mid to high minus single digits around (-7C to -10C) colder the further north you go. 

Saturday (Above): Much of southern Manitoba will be enveloped by heavy snowfall in the afternoon, blowing snow will be an issue and highway and city travel will not be recommended. I’m assuming that possible blizzard conditions will be possible as well. High temperatures on the day high temperatures will sit in the low to mid minus single digits (-5 to -9C).

Saturday night (Above): Snow will continue sitting over our area with a strong influence of blowing snow, winds will be blowing out of the east to southeast around the low pressure system sitting off to our south. Moderate to heavy snow will continue over the southeast and south central part of Manitoba until about shortly after midnight when light snowfall will occur as the system begins to move southeast. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high minus single digits (-5C to -9C), with the exceptions of the parklands seeing low temperatures drop again into the minus low teens (-10 to -12C).

Sunday: Light snow will continue for the first half of the day with winds shifting out of the northeast, blowing snow will likely die out by the afternoon. Right now there's not a lot of signals for blowing snow as it was on Saturday. The low pressure system as I mentioned will begin moving further off into Minnesota. Temperatures will likely see values in the low to mid minus single digits (-3C to -7C).

Sunday Night: Calmer weather will likely envelope the region and it is good news because this system will have had some significant impacts. Colder weather will likely arrive on the backside as winds shift out of the north. Areas in southwestern Manitoba will likely see some very cold air on the backside with temperatures dropping into the minus low 20's, windchills may sit around the -30C mark. Areas further east will see lows in the high minus single digits (-6C to -8C) and some patch areas in the east in the low minus teens (-10 to -12C). 

STORM TOTALS:  Areas north of the trans canada highway will see 5 to 10cm, further south you go there will be higher amounts. Heavier impacts will be felt in the western half of Manitoba where the parklands and westman to lake Manitoba will see a general 15 to 20cm, areas just past Gladstone a general 10 to 15cm will be likely that also includes areas of the red river valley. As you go south into the Duck mountains and Peace Gardens along the american border in SW Manitoba towards the american border in the red river valley 20 to 25cm of snow will likely occur there. Amounts could change so all the details of this may not be accurate. Higher amounts are possible. See photo at the top for information, or you can check www.spotwx.com to find out your specific point of interest for snowfall totals. 

The week ahead: Clear signals are in place for the mild weather to continue with high temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits, overnight lows as expected a little colder than expected with lows in the minus teens. Signs are that there will be no significant cold blasts of arctic air in the next 1-2 weeks. Blogs from now on will be posted at the beginning and end of every week. Fridays Wednesday and Monday unless my schedule becomes busier than average. I’ll keep you in the loop on any eventful weather that occurs. 

Good News Blog Post COMING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. I'm Back after a break :-)

 Full Weather Details on the way coming in on the day Wednesday. As I write this at 10:47PM it is too late to finish or start a blog post. 

Significant Cold Weather Trend Continues, Relief in Sight

Much of Southern Manitoba and sections of central Manitoba, have been under the influence of extreme cold thanks to a persistent polar vortex sitting over the Canadian prairies. This airmass will likely depart our area over the next few days. I unfortunately had a really bad cold for the past few days, on top of a stomach bug so I wasn't able to post on the extreme cold that was headed for us. It appears this unbearable cold weather trend will likely end sometime later this week. (Below: Photo of the Polar Vortex and extreme cold airmass sitting over much of western Canada. It was cold enough for snow in the Las Vegas Mountain regions this past week I'm not kidding.)

Heading into the second half of the week, not much in the way of weather is likely. There isn't any significant low pressure systems likely heading into the weekend. For the rest of the day today remnants of a low pressure system will drift in with increasing cloud cover and a bit more bearable temperatures with high temperatures today reaching the minus high teens, and low -20's. Windchills will likely be a bit colder with values in the high minus 20's to low minus 30's the coldest of this air will likely be in the Pembina valley into the red river valley. 

Thursday overnight into the morning Friday will likely be cold but with values not nearly as bad during the week, overnight temperatures will drop into the low minus 20's with windchills in the high minus 20's to the low minus 30's. Word of advice for those in the Pembina valley and red river southern regions is where the coldest of that air will exist. Clearing skies are also likely heading into the overnight period.

Friday will end up being a very different day, temperatures will rise into the mid to high minus teens -14C to -18C and overall windchills will be well below minus 30C, in general anywhere from -20C to -26C. Under mostly sunny skies before increasing clouds come in during the late evening.

Friday Night: A batch of cloudcover will likely move into the region with a small disturbance moving through ahead of a warm front, a general trace to 5cm can be expected as this system moves through. Unfortunately our snow drought continues. However after that clears our temperatures will likely take a plunge with our overnight lows dropping into the low minus 20's in western Manitoba, and some central regions. Areas further east will see lows in the high minus teens. In general (-18C to -25C) with overall windchills well into the mid to high minus 20's. 

The Weekend: "End Of The Cold Streak":

Much of what happened this week is likely due to the influences of a fading La Nina and a polar vortex which did sit over our area for a significant length of time. Temperatures will rebound on the day on Saturday with high temperature values in the low to mid minus teens, (-10 to -14C). There will likely be an area of flurries off in eastern Manitoba during the day. Overnight into Sunday morning low temperatures will drop off again into the mid to high minus teens, with windchills in the mid to high minus 20's. Sunday will end up being the mildest weather we have seen since at least the beginning of the month, with our average day time highs soaring into the low to mid minus single digits some areas may even see highs above zero in the extreme southeast. Increasing clouds are also likely during the latter half of the day. The same goes for Sunday night where our lows will drop into the mid to high minus single digits.

The Long Range: As we transition into ENSO Neutral which means theres neither cold nor hot water off the coast of the pacific in south america will allow for less cold snaps, to develop over our area (Below). The only thing I see next week is a low pressure system on the day Monday along a westerly flow that might bring snow. Fluctuating between the low to mid minus single digits to the low minus teens for day time highs with and the lows dropping from the minus teens to low minus twenties on rarer occasions. Warmer values likely during the first half of the week, with fluctuating values towards the latter half of the week. 

Warmer Weather Finally HERE

Much of Southern Manitoba is likely in the beginning stretches of warmer weather we experienced significant arctic air over the last few weeks, parts of North America was under some of the coldest air they have ever experienced. Some regions were so cold that a windchill of -70C was recorded on the east coast some of the coldest air seen if ever. "If there was any doubt about just how brutal Friday's conditions were in New England, look no further than New Hampshire's Mount Washington Observatory, where a wind chill of minus 101 degrees Fahrenheit was recorded." Details of that here:Wind chills in New England are so low, they're literally off the charts (yahoo.com) It appears that dreaded polar vortex has now moved well off into the Atlantic ocean regions. Find out where and when the warmth will be likely be at its most impactful. In this weeks blog. A format change up is also going to appear in this weeks blog as a trial run as I have grown tired of the original day to day format so it will be a brief but quicker summary on the weeks weather. 

This week will be warm and will stick around for quite a while. Tuesday Will start out cold and our temperatures will likely start out in the low teens to the upper minus single digits. By the afternoon Will end up being one of the warmest days of the week, with a very high likelihood of areas in southwestern Manitoba seeing highs from -1C all the way up to plus 2C, areas in the eastern part of Manitoba will unfortunately only see highs in the low minus single digits. The warmth will be welcomed as a warm front moves across southern Manitoba. Some partly cloudy skies are likely too. Similar temperatures likely across the southern half of Manitoba, on Tuesday night. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw lows not any colder than -5C. ******Wednesday morning there will be a risk for freezing rain and freezing drizzle, accumulations are not fully understood yet but I think a general area from Lake Manitoba towards the parklands in the morning. Then by the  afternoon some areas of southcentral Manitoba into southeastern Manitoba. the warmth will likely be at its peak, and high temperatures across the south will be in the high minus single digits to a few degrees above zero (-3C to 2C). Wednesday night will even be on the mild side. However heading into the second half of the week, cooler temperature values return. A clipper system will come through Thursday and drop our temperatures for the second half of the week, will see values in the high minus single digits for day time highs on Thursday and overnight low values return into the low to mid minus teens with a shot at -20C values again. A brief period of cold weather on the night Thursday will lead into warmer more moderated values on Friday into Friday night with highs again in the low to mid minus single digits, as well as overnight. 

Enjoy the warmth!!! My next blog should be better as I am just getting over a cold. 

-Mike McGregor