More of the same "cold".

I am not going to write much given the fact that we will be expereiencing the same cold weather as we have been for the first half of the month and January, our temperatures will stay in the mid to high minus teens through the daytime and the mid minus 20's overnight with windchills in the mid minus 30's. Cloudcover will manage to sneak in every once and a while on a few of our days this week allowing for the temperatures to stay comfy, the cold weather will hang around until mid Feb before we start warming a bit.

Slow Decent Back To Winter

After our hit of hazardous winter weather last night it will be a tough descent, enjoy this quick warmup it won`t last long as another arctic cold front is on the way. A parade of systems will follow in the wake of this cold front.

Goodbye To the warmth

Our arctic cold front will be the culprit for dropping our temperatures from the mid minus single digits to the mid minus teens, before that we will see a switchover to snow as the arctic front starts working it`s way southwards general accumulations of 2 to 4cm can be expected. There will not be a concern for any hazardous weather such as what was the case yesterday. once the snow clears out the winds will start increasing from the NW and of course our temperatures will begin dropping to the mid minus 20`s, not even close to what the weather will be like for the weekend. Another post will be made tomorrow on our weekend. Have a good day!

Nasty Alberta Clipper To Usher In Another Brutal Coldsnap

Snow has been the story today for much of Southern Manitoba as an Alberta Clipper entered the region, even though our temperatures warmed up today we will be getting a reinforcing shot of cold air as the system moves off. This shot of cold air will likely be one of the most unpleasant that we have seen this winter, though it won't be the coldest temperature wise it'll be paired with a biting wind that will make it feel unpleasant.

Blizzard In The Red River Valley 

With the storm's passing in the next few hours winds out of the northwest will increase substantially, this will cause condition's to deteriorate fairly fast with winds in the range of 30 to 40 km/h with gusts in excess of 60 to 70 km/h. This combined with freshly fallen snow will create blowing snow through much of the red river valley from now through to early morning, creating near zero visibilities at times. The worst of the conditions look to take place in the southern red river valley where gusts of 70 km/h are possible in the region, as a result blizzard conditions are likely. Places under the warning are Morden, Winkler, Altona, Emerson, Morris, Steinbach, Ste Adolphe, Dominion City, Vita and Richer. Be sure to adjust accordingly to road condition's and make sure you have an emergency road kit handy if you are heading out on highway's #75S, #59S, and #2-W tonight. 

   

Brutal Cold For The Weekend 

After the system clears our region a blast of arctic air will dive south,it be the most brutal cold we have seen this winter. Although the temperatures will not be as cold as last time it is going to be the wind that is the case, which will make it feel significantly colder. Temperatures will drop (from whatever they are in the morning) throughout the day Saturday as the cold sinks southwards, the coldest of the cold will occur on Saturday overnight where temperatures will approach the minus 30s with the wind it will feel like the minus 40s. Sunday will be a recovery day as we see temperatures rise along with a bit of cloud pushing into the region, winds will be out of the west from 10 to 20km/h. Much colder again overnight into Monday.

Winter 2013/2014 Continues, I'm hoping that it warms up soon because this cold is getting old!

Warmer Weather is Returning!

After our fairy snowy weekend and start of the week with temperatures sitting below normal, we will now be welcomed with a return to more above normal like condition's. Though it won't last! Our day ahead should be fairly bright and sunny across Southern Manitoba with temperatures getting into the mid to high single digits, allowing the chance for some of the snow to melt. Much of the same will be for our overnight low's staying either above or close to zero degrees, the nice weather will come to an end on Wednesday as a cold front slides south. Cool arctic air will follow in the wake giving the region a blast of winter but not too cold if anything near -10C. No return of warm weather is in sight by the weekend.

Blog Posts Returning Soon!

After a busy summer holiday's and getting back into the old grind I have forgotten about the blog, it needs some work and I promise you there will be major improvements and soon. The next blog update is scheduled for October 15 or so, whatever the weather holds I will write all the details about it. Here's hoping for the first snowflake soon!

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Today

After we experienced a nice couple of days with showers and occasional storms mixed in with sunshine. We now are under the gun for severe weather once again, thank's to another trough of low pressure that is moving across the prairies.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Jul 13/14

A decent severe weather setup is in play today, with all of the conditions present and ready to go. Brad from A Weather Moment Quotes  "In the warm sector of this system ample daytime heating combined with increasing low-level moisture and gradual destabilization of the mid-to-upper-levels will work in tandem to produce MLCAPES of nearly 2000J/kg. The strong upper-level jets -- nearly 60kt at 500mb and over 100kt at 250mb will provide ample upper-level support for severe thunderstorms and, when combined with the surface flow and increasing 850mb LLJ in the late afternoon and evening, will produce 0-500mb bulk shear values of nearly 50-60kt." As a result there will be the likelihood for tornado producing supercells in areas of Southwestern Manitoba, bringing along with them the threats for large hail (Baseball size possibly) damaging winds, and deadly lightning. Areas under the gun include (Melita/Boissevain/Turtle Mountain Provincial Park/Virden/Souris/Western Parts of Killarney/Pilot Mound/Manitou and Brandon/Carberry/Treherene). Any storms that do produce tornadoes will likely give off weak to moderate tornadoes, however there is no way of telling the EF rating until damage is done. Folk's living in the threat area need to stay aware of changing and adverse weather condition's do get to safety if you see any green skies and or a funnel cloud/tornado! Don't wait for warnings to be issued, your window to the sky should be your warning. After the peak tornado timeframe ends (about 7pm) any activity should be able to merge together into a decent line of severe storms and travel eastwards through the evening hours. They will either weaken or maintain there strength as they move on eastwards into the Red River valley late evening or after midnight. That is why I have posted a slight risk for severe weather through and after the 12am period in the rest of Southern Manitoba. Things will calm down Sunday with sunshine and warmer weather, but not until we get through a few rough patches first.

Another chance at showers or thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday to start the week. Have a good time enjoying the storms!

Thunderstorm and Rain Threat Returns

After we received a brief reprieve from the rainfall and thunderstorms in Southern Manitoba today, a return to wetter and stormier conditions is expected as a trough of low pressure enters the region. The day will start off with some morning cloudcover or sunshine, it all depends on overnight convection and where it goes, but right now I am leaning towards more sunshine and warmth than cloudcover. As the trough approaches heat and humidity will begin to rise throughout southern Manitoba as southeasterly winds draw gulf moisture northwards once again. With the humidity rising, dewpoint temperatures will rise into the 15 to 20C range for much of SouthMB with an increase to 20 to 25C by late afternoon for South Central Manitoba but likely for the rest of Southern Manitoba come evening. High Temperatures will likely top out in the mid to high 20's, with likely a few localities bearing into the 30's especially along the border and in Southeastern Manitoba. Combined together the humidex values could be feeling closer to 40C considering the NAM is forecasting a 35C to 40C range. Add that a trough will be moving through southwestern Manitoba for the late morning to late afternoon and into the Red River Valley by evening to overnight before leaving the province by morning.

CAPE Values are expected to rise into the 3,000 to 4,000 J/KG range for much of SouthMB on Tuesday

Every thunderstorm parameter is looking excellent for Southern Manitoba, things have changed in the last model run and as a result CAPE Values will be from 2,000 J/Kg by early afternoon to 4,000 J/Kg by afternoon and evening but less so overnight, LI's of -10 to -12 for southwestern manitoba, but -8 to -10 for the rest of the south. Dewpoints will also be high likely from the 15 to 25C range along the trough, a decent shear profile also looks to be in place for scattered places in southern manitoba. All combined severe weather looks likely for all of southern manitoba including Winnipeg, Brandon, though especially for the southwest. The threat will exist for large hail, damaging winds, heavy downpours, intense lightning and possibly tornadoes in the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that form will likely experience upscale growth into what models are possibly hinting at an MCS for the Red River Valley and EastMB come evening. Watches and warnings may be issued tomorrow by Environment Canada, stay tuned for updates.

As for the day on Wednesday things will quiet down, with the possibilty of some more scattered showers and storms on the way for Wednesday in Eastern Manitoba as the low moves on through, severe weather may become likely . It will clear the province by late Wednesday. I'll be in Beausejour Wednesday so maybe I'll get some action. As for the rest of the week warmer and drier weather can be expected as a ridge builds but there could be some thunderstorm chances any will be weak and short lived.

Overall things will have to be monitored and kept an eye on, have a look and keep any eye on what models are saying http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en as they may change ideas on the new model runs. Anyways thank you and hopefully you enjoyed the post, I'll try and update things as best as I can through the day but I might be held back by my house chores tomorrow. Though updates will come in the evening likely.

Data was based on the 00Z Tuesday NAM Model Run and partly from A Weather Moment