Thunderstorm and Rain Threat Returns

After we received a brief reprieve from the rainfall and thunderstorms in Southern Manitoba today, a return to wetter and stormier conditions is expected as a trough of low pressure enters the region. The day will start off with some morning cloudcover or sunshine, it all depends on overnight convection and where it goes, but right now I am leaning towards more sunshine and warmth than cloudcover. As the trough approaches heat and humidity will begin to rise throughout southern Manitoba as southeasterly winds draw gulf moisture northwards once again. With the humidity rising, dewpoint temperatures will rise into the 15 to 20C range for much of SouthMB with an increase to 20 to 25C by late afternoon for South Central Manitoba but likely for the rest of Southern Manitoba come evening. High Temperatures will likely top out in the mid to high 20's, with likely a few localities bearing into the 30's especially along the border and in Southeastern Manitoba. Combined together the humidex values could be feeling closer to 40C considering the NAM is forecasting a 35C to 40C range. Add that a trough will be moving through southwestern Manitoba for the late morning to late afternoon and into the Red River Valley by evening to overnight before leaving the province by morning.

CAPE Values are expected to rise into the 3,000 to 4,000 J/KG range for much of SouthMB on Tuesday

Every thunderstorm parameter is looking excellent for Southern Manitoba, things have changed in the last model run and as a result CAPE Values will be from 2,000 J/Kg by early afternoon to 4,000 J/Kg by afternoon and evening but less so overnight, LI's of -10 to -12 for southwestern manitoba, but -8 to -10 for the rest of the south. Dewpoints will also be high likely from the 15 to 25C range along the trough, a decent shear profile also looks to be in place for scattered places in southern manitoba. All combined severe weather looks likely for all of southern manitoba including Winnipeg, Brandon, though especially for the southwest. The threat will exist for large hail, damaging winds, heavy downpours, intense lightning and possibly tornadoes in the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that form will likely experience upscale growth into what models are possibly hinting at an MCS for the Red River Valley and EastMB come evening. Watches and warnings may be issued tomorrow by Environment Canada, stay tuned for updates.

As for the day on Wednesday things will quiet down, with the possibilty of some more scattered showers and storms on the way for Wednesday in Eastern Manitoba as the low moves on through, severe weather may become likely . It will clear the province by late Wednesday. I'll be in Beausejour Wednesday so maybe I'll get some action. As for the rest of the week warmer and drier weather can be expected as a ridge builds but there could be some thunderstorm chances any will be weak and short lived.

Overall things will have to be monitored and kept an eye on, have a look and keep any eye on what models are saying http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en as they may change ideas on the new model runs. Anyways thank you and hopefully you enjoyed the post, I'll try and update things as best as I can through the day but I might be held back by my house chores tomorrow. Though updates will come in the evening likely.

Data was based on the 00Z Tuesday NAM Model Run and partly from A Weather Moment