After what was a great week will now be another unsettled start to the weekend, as another area of low pressure marches across Southern Manitoba with an adjoining warm front going through today and a cold front passing by on Saturday. The arrival of this low pressure system will bring forward a marginal to likely risk of isolated severe thunderstorms this weekend right through to the start of the week, as is typical of mid June. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the Southwest portion of the province with some decent lightning detected in them, any of the activity there will spread northeastwards (mainly missing Winnipeg and the Red River Valley) creating the potential for heavy rainfall, some damaging winds, small hail and intense lightning. Another batch of showers and storms will form out in the southwest by late afternoon (behind the current activity) and travel to the east as the evening nears, reaching the Red River Valley by the mid evening period or around that time. Storms will travel into the Eastern half of the province getting themselves into a flattened out area of rain around the time they enter central Northwest Ontario. The threats with the storms will be small hail, intense lightning, heavy rains and some moderate winds, however that threat may change if severe storms become likely that would mean a chance of large hail, damaging winds, and possible supercells. Daytime high temperatures will be in the mid to high 20's for the day ahead. I will monitor for updates on potential severe weather. For the weekend it looks like instability will be in place on Saturday and Sunday giving way to a chance at more scattered showers and storms with high temperatures in the mid 20's. No severe weather is anticipated, but with it being June anything can happen (there could be a chance).
Much Nicer weather is forecast for the week with more heat and humidity and temperatures in the mid to high 20's to near 30C. Another severe weather potential arrives mid to late week. Enjoy next week while you can!
Data was in part from and compiled from pretty much all of the weather websites in my links, but mostly from A Weather Moment and JJ Winnipeg Weather..
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ReplyDeleteWhat has started off as an active night will continue to do so, a short while ago Winnipeg experienced it's heaviest severe thunderstorm in a long time. Roadways are flooded including streets throughout the St.James/Silver Heights/Charleswood areas of Winnipeg where 70mm has fallen in places. There will be a lot more on the way tonight, another area of storms are forecast to form in the Southwest and travel eastwards into the southcentral part of the province into the eastern portion of the south. These types of storms will likely be a MCS complex, they will have the likelihood of producing damaging winds, a tornado or two, large hail, very heavy rainfall, and intense lightning. The storms could produce another local 50mm of rain depending on how quick they travel, if they hit Winnipeg we are talking another 50mm which would add up to over 100mm. Things will clear out by morning making way for another chance of showers and storms tomorrow. A new post will be on the way by mid afternoon.... Updates will be made available here in the comments section...
ReplyDeleteInfo from Twitter/Weatheroffice EC/ and A Weather Moment...
Here is the latest risk map for the rest of the night in SouthMB, more on the way!
Deletehttp://imgh.us/Regions_of_SouthMBbggg.png
There will be the potential for scattered thunderstorms tonight throughout southern manitoba including Winnipeg as an area of storms blossoms from North Dakota and spreads northeastwards. There will be the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, large hail and damaging winds, though mainly non severe in nature. Winnipeg could get in on the action later by 12am into the overnight period. An LLJ will keep storms going throughout the overnight as it starts up over the next hour. No big MCS to talk about, but it still will be an active night with some warnings possible.
ReplyDeleteNicer Weather on the way later tomorrow...