Southern Manitoba will be likely getting severe weather this evening and overnight as another round of severe storms is possible, thanks to another low pressure system moving into the region from eastern Saskatchewan.
Photos of the HRRR model run with thunderstorms impacting our region tonight. App is Weather front. you can get it on the App Store , model data is available as well.
Above: Severe weather risk map as shown by Environment Canada for this afternoon evening.
Below: Severe weather risk map from Environment Canada for tonight.
I write this blog at 4:46 PM. There is a small cluster of thunderstorms by Portage La Prairie and Elie, which may make it swing to Winnipeg by around 6 PM. These storms will be the first round, before another round comes in tonight. Feel free to read on for information about tonight’s severe weather threat .
Ahead of this low pressure system temperatures are likely to skyrocket well into the upper 20s in southeastern Manitoba and south Central regions were as areas of south western Manitoba into south eastern Saskatchewan will see high temperatures later today. Reach the low mid 30s with huge ex values corresponding higher in the mid upper 30s in south western Manitoba and mid 30s in the southeast part of Manitoba. Currently a large swath of 3000-5000 J per kilogram cape is positioned in extreme south eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba with the swath of instability moving into southern Manitoba towards the middle to latter evening hours. Along with this supercell composite values between 4 to 10 are in place for a large portion of southwest, which will increase the overall shear available for thunderstorms once they develop. One of my main concerns is the storm relative helicity available for all thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba between 200 to 500 m/s squared.
There will be no shortage of moisture in Southern Manitoba dew points you clean 15 to 25°C with a higher view point and southwestern Manitoba as the front encounters, the moisture shear and instability there will be an increased risk for super cells developing this evening in southwestern Manitoba. The best threat right now for tornadoes is in the tornado watch area, which includes areas south of Dauphin to the American border. During the evening hours from 5-9pm risk for tornadoes during the initial phase of development with hail the size of baseballs and upwards of 50 to 75 mm of rain in storms. If these storms can congeal into a line depending on how far east they make it there could be a risk for the severe Weather area to move as far east as Winnipeg and Beauséjour, and the beaches area. It appears the main risk area for these dangerous storms will be in Western Manitoba from Saskatchewan border as far east, as the white shell with a marginal risk expected as you go further east however, areas of the interlakes and western Parklands will likely experience the brunt of the system, I have attached some photos of the simulated radar imagery for this evening. It appears that the storm system and storm threat is significant enough that Reed Timmer is highlighting the concern in his post normally he doesn’t talk about Canada.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely persist during overnight timeframe and will clear during warning hours another round if possible and settle. Weather is likely tomorrow afternoon as the cold front goes in, but the atmosphere may have a hard time recovering from the storms overnight so if storms do fire tomorrow, they end up being non severe in nature. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid teens as thunderstorms impact most folks before a rebound to the upper teens in the morning hours. Thursday : expects a risk for unsettled weather during the early afternoon hours as the front passes the region behind it sunny skies are forecast with temperatures in the low 20s with the exception of southwestern Manitoba in the 20s under a dryer cooler air mass.
Risk for showers and unsettled weather, thunderstorms are not likely however a northerly flow will establish cooler temperature of pattern on Friday with highs only in low 20s and overnight lows in the low teens. It looks like Southern sections Manitoba on Friday and Friday night, will allow enough warm air moving over the Manitoba Lakes to produce some lake affect showers that will persist into early Saturday.
On Friday night expect temperature is to be in the low teens and daytime highs on the day Saturday in the upper teens and low 20s .