Updates about The Forecasting Conundrum Were In

 Everyone, I just wanted to inform you I apologize for the lack of weather posts this summer and this fall. It has been an incredibly difficult year for forecasting, not only for the United States but also for Canadians one of the things that I’ve noticed is the increased lack of accuracy with weather models, including high resolution convection allowing models one of the main problems I’ve come across is every single convector model over the last few months has shown a different output resolution for storms in Manitoba as well. 

There has been completely different outcomes with each model run and is because of the Trump administration in the United States cutting access to funding for meteorologists and firing staff in NWS offices, to launch Weather balloons. Computer model data has also significantly deteriorated in terms of quality therefore focus accuracy has gone down the gutter this year. I cannot confidently forecast to the level that I did last year at this point when it comes to forecasting storms even today all the weather models were hinting at thunderstorms, developing in the red river Valley and Southern Manitoba, today they developed along the American border and even at this moment, the model is suggesting thunderstorms impacting Winnipeg with upwards of 30 to 40 mm of rain and that seems to not be the case at all based on current radar data. I am looking forward to the full months and creating forecast for winter storms, but it has been incredibly difficult year for forecasting thunderstorms. Also we have had a couple of sleeper set ups where not a lot of models are suggesting storms happening and they pop up out of know where along the frontal system that moves into the province at this point I have to find some ways to Find more meaningful forecasting opportunities for next summer.   As for the administration in the United States I don’t think they will make any changes to the situation in United States are Weather offices, and this is contributing to the current problem with forecasting solutions. Find out more what I mean here: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/weather-balloons-stop-trump-cuts-forecasts-less-accurate-rcna198055

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-04-17/californias-national-weather-service-offices-reduce-services-amid-trump-admin-cuts

Showers and Thunderstorms likely tonight

 Southern Manitoba will be likely getting severe weather this evening and overnight as another round of severe storms is possible, thanks to another low pressure system moving into the region from eastern Saskatchewan. 

Photos of the HRRR model run with thunderstorms impacting our region tonight. App is Weather front. you can get it on the App Store , model data is available as well.

Above: Severe weather risk map as shown by Environment Canada for this afternoon evening.

Below: Severe weather risk map from Environment Canada for tonight. 

I write this blog at 4:46 PM. There is a small cluster of thunderstorms by Portage La Prairie and Elie, which may make it swing to Winnipeg by around 6 PM. These storms will be the first round, before another round comes in tonight. Feel free to read on for information about tonight’s severe weather threat . 

Ahead of this low pressure system temperatures are likely to skyrocket well into the upper 20s in southeastern Manitoba and south Central regions were as areas of south western Manitoba into south eastern Saskatchewan will see high temperatures later today. Reach the low mid 30s with huge ex values corresponding higher in the mid upper 30s in south western Manitoba and mid 30s in the southeast part of Manitoba. Currently a large swath of 3000-5000 J per kilogram cape is positioned in extreme south eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba with the swath of instability moving into southern Manitoba towards the middle to latter evening hours. Along with this supercell composite values between 4 to 10 are in place for a large portion of southwest, which will increase the overall shear available for thunderstorms once they develop. One of my main concerns is the storm relative helicity available for all thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba between 200 to 500 m/s squared. 

There will be no shortage of moisture in Southern Manitoba dew points you clean 15 to 25°C with a higher view point and southwestern Manitoba as the front encounters, the moisture shear and instability there will be an increased risk for super cells developing this evening in southwestern Manitoba. The best threat right now for tornadoes is in the tornado watch area, which includes areas south of Dauphin to the American border. During the evening hours from 5-9pm risk for tornadoes during the initial phase of development with hail the size of baseballs and upwards of 50 to 75 mm of rain in storms. If these storms can congeal into a line depending on how far east they make it there could be a risk for the severe Weather area to move as far east as Winnipeg and Beauséjour, and the beaches area. It appears the main risk area for these dangerous storms will be in Western Manitoba from Saskatchewan border as far east, as the white shell with a marginal risk expected as you go further east however, areas of the interlakes and western Parklands will likely experience the brunt of the system, I have attached some photos of the simulated radar imagery for this evening. It appears that the storm system and storm threat is significant enough that Reed Timmer is highlighting the concern in his post normally he doesn’t talk about Canada. 

Showers and thunderstorms will likely persist during overnight timeframe and will clear during warning hours another round if possible and settle. Weather is likely tomorrow afternoon as the cold front goes in, but the atmosphere may have a hard time recovering from the storms overnight so if storms do fire tomorrow, they end up being non severe in nature. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid teens as thunderstorms impact most folks before a rebound to the upper teens in the morning hours. Thursday : expects a risk for unsettled weather during the early afternoon hours as the front passes the region behind it sunny skies are forecast with temperatures in the low 20s with the exception of southwestern Manitoba in the 20s under a dryer cooler air mass. 

Risk for showers and unsettled weather,  thunderstorms are not likely however a northerly flow will establish cooler temperature of pattern on Friday with highs only in low 20s and overnight lows in the low teens. It looks like Southern sections Manitoba on Friday and Friday night, will allow enough warm air moving over the Manitoba Lakes to produce some lake affect showers that will persist into early Saturday. 

On Friday night expect temperature is to be in the low teens and daytime highs on the day Saturday in the upper teens and low 20s . 

Severe Weather Threat Returns to Southern Manitoba

Hey, what’s up everybody? I have an update on the weather situation in Southern Manitoba. We have an interesting next 24 to 48 hours on the way. Southern instructions in Manitoba is at risk of seeing some severe weather on the day Monday. A trough of low pressure is expected to approach our region.

Tornado threat on the day Monday for southern Manitoba shown  (Above). 

During the day Monday (Above) severe weather is possible in these regions simulated radar from high res models. There may be some residual showers from convection left over in southeastern Manitoba as that clears out temperature should skyrocket into the upper 20s. Dewpoint temperatures should rise into the upper teens and low 20s and it looks like sheer will rise into the 50 to 60 knot range towards the evening. Ahead of this General MUCAPE values look to exceed 2000 J per kilogram, with super cell composite values less than eight. All of this combined along with approaching upper level trough there will be a risk for scattered super cell thunderstorms with the potential for hail up to the size of golf balls, and an isolated risk of tornadoes . There is a chance that there may be a line of thunderstorms which develop further to the west earlier in the day. Areas at risk are from Portage La Prairie east to Winnipeg and NE to the Lake Winnipeg area.  It all depends on how the system evolves. Models have been fairly inconsistent this year however, look for a stormy evening in southeastern Manitoba. If nothing happens just know I was writing this to inform you all of the possibility of this type of weather happening. 

On Monday night, expect storms to clear out of the region. Then another increasing threat for storms as likely as another thunderstorm complex develops in south eastern Saskatchewan and Northwestern, North Dakota. This may turn into a  MCS complex, which will move north east through the late overnight timeframe into the morning hours. Models are kind of still inconsistent with the development and timing on the system forming. This will likely future a wind and rain threat with the last system in North Dakota giving wind gust up to 200 km an hour. I don’t think that this will be an occurrence with these storms maybe gusts  up to 100 at max. These storms will be known as ridge riders. They were likely be rainfall rates and after cause localized flash flooding Justin and I will monitor this situation on the early morning hours on Tuesday. 

Tuesday, I’m expecting thunderstorms persist throughout the early morning to late afternoon hours in the southeast part of Manitoba. This may change and I will update this information at the comment section. Mostly cloudy skies are likely in the day on Tuesday after thunderstorms clear. Temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the low to mid 20s except for areas in the southwest, which will be in the upper teens for most of the day by evening. All of southeastern Manitoba will be in the teens as a much cooler air mass comes in behind the front.

Much calmer weather conditions are likely on Wednesday.  With highs in the 20’s once again expected There is also a chance on Wednesday morning for another round of convection however, this is only showing on one model solution at the time.

Slight Risk of Severe Weather Arrives

 Southern Manitoba will be seeing a return to possible thunderstorms in the southeast part of Manitoba during the day Sunday. It has been a relatively quiet last couple of weeks in southeastern Manitoba, the west has been lighting up a lot lately. However that is about to change, as a low pressure system is set to impact areas of NE ND and NW MN. This same low is likely to set off some unsettled weather over the next 24 hours. 

(Above): NAM convection likely developing during the afternoon in SE MB. Potential for severe thunderstorms are there.

(Above): Thunderstorms which will likely be severe in the southeast may develop during the morning hours, before another round may develop in north Dakota by mid afternoon moving NE into the red river valley.) I will have a update in the morning with another photo above this updated.  

Sunday: An area of instability is likely over the extreme southeast in the morning hours, models earlier were showing robust convection developing in the southeast from Steinbach to the whiteshell areas with severe thunderstorms a possibility. That area of the province is in a slight risk. These thunderstorms will be quite potent, there is a risk of damaging winds, large hail. Flooding rains are likely in the areas that are impacted by these storms in the morning hours. Tornadoes however do not look likely. Based on latest convective models there will be another threat developing later in the day in the red river valley for severe thunderstorms however a marginal risk will exist in this area. My concern is that the NAM model has been showing relatively strong shear, so if storms happen they may rotate however Justin mentioned to me tornadoes arent as likely in our neck of the woods but higher in NW MN. However any storms that develop will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall, and large hail. Given that we will be on the backside of the low pressure system there may be some brief spin ups. Any thunderstorms that develop will likely move north and northeast quite quickly. I will know more specifics in the morning, but regardless this is going to be southeastern Manitobas turn at showers and storms. Temperatures in the afternoon will only rise into the upper teens and low 20's. There will also be some humidity mixed in as well. Thunderstorms will likely clear out by the late evening hours. 

The Week Ahead: Calmer Weather is likely with temperatures moderating in the teens and low 20's. There may be a few low pressure systems that move through during the week. 

Severe Weather Threat Returns to southern Manitoba. Weak Tornado threat Possible .

 Hello, what is up everybody? I have a forecast update and this one is going to be short and brief. We do have some severe weather on the way for southern Manitoba and a region, which will not only bring well needed rain for the wildfire situation, but it will also help Reduce our overall drought situation. Tomorrow expect temperatures across southern Manitoba will rise into the 20s. There will likely be increasing humidity out ahead of the area of low pressure off to our south. The day may start off with occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms north of the main area of low pressure. If that happens temperatures may have a hard time reaching there day time highs clearing can be expected during the latter half of the afternoon. If we avoid the initial round of showers and thunderstorms, some of the Weather models are suggesting that areas of southeastern Manitoba may rise into the upper twenties and possibly low 30s where as the southwest will see highs in the teens, This is all dependent on initial convection. Regardless of whether this happens later in the day with the low pressure system moving into our region, there will be increasing upper level support for shear as well as instability we’re looking at CAPE from 1,000 to 1,500J/Kg and EHI of 1 to 5. This will not only increase the severe Weather potential, but there will be a higher likelihood that a couple of spin ups (tornado threat is possible in these areas)  could happen in areas of the red river valley and just along highway 1 east of Portage La Prairie with Winnipeg included in this risk map. See photo below for a look at one of the SKEW T Graphs near the YWG area. Expect multiple rounds of convection to develop later today before clearing around midnight. Rainfall totals could exceed 50mm in some areas, 

Temperatures behind the system will cool off into the teens during the overnight timeframe. The system will move off to the east behind bringing a cooler air mass with overnight low temperatures in the single digits in the southwest and low teens in the east . Also, there will be initial rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the late evening and early overnight timeframe, which may persist into the day on Friday. 

Heat, slight Humidity and Thunderstorms Arriving for the weekend.

Hey what's up everybody I'm sorry that I've been away for so long writing our blogs I just wanted to let you know that we have interesting weather weekend ahead as well into our week ahead, weatherwise. It looks like we are going to be going into a rough weekend and week with heat, and humidity. A rex block will be moving into this part of the country what this means is there will be a cut off low over the southern united states, creating what we call a look like a T Rex with the upper jetstream. Photo Courtesy of:  Meteorologist Eric Snitil: Facebook

Along this area of high pressure on the north end over southern Manitoba, a area of low pressure systems will be moving into the northern plains as aided by a pacific jetstream. This area will be the focal point for oppurtunities for severe weather this weekend into early next week, as I write this at 347PM there has now been a heat warning issued for southern Manitoba thanks to this massive ridge building over the southern prairie provinces. If you want to find out more what this means to our upper weather pattern read on below. 

This Afternoon and Evening: As I am writing this article we have thunderstorms over the interlake region from Eriksdale to Gull Lake and the Victoria Beach regions. These showers and weak thunderstorms will likely persist into this evening. There is a chance that there may be additional thunderstorms developing towards the dinner hour based on the latest NAM model, iniation may happen along the warm front as it hits a pocket of slightly unstable air. These thunderstorms will not be severe thankfully. We should be around 24C this evening, before the sun sets. Temperatures during the overnight timeframe will drop into the mid to upper teens, with areas of the interlakes remaining cooler than that, with lows in the 8-10C range. 

Tomorrow: Southern Manitoba get ready to bake, not home bake things. I mean bake in the heat, but you guys wont cook, literally. It will just be hot enough that you might be able to leave cookies in your car and they might be done at the end of the day. Just dont be trying to cook bacon or eggs. Anyways getting back to being on the serious note here, a low pressure system will be sitting just west of Manitoba, ahead of it a narrow area of instability will set up along the warm front with it sitting west to east along and south of highway 1 and 2 moving north through the day. There will be a strong cap along this boundary making it incredibly hard to break, if any storms fire they very well could be severe with hail, and strong wind gusts and the potential for lightning which may spark additional fires as it has been incredibly dry. Temperatures will crack the 30C mark across southern Manitoba with high temperatures in the mid 30's are likely, despite the NAM only saying 27C for Winnipeg. 

Tomorrow Night: Any threat for thunderstorms may persist into the evening time frame, the best chances for the storms appear to be in the southwest part of Manitoba, based on the latest RAP model they will spread into the interlakes and the central part of Manitoba where less capping may be present. The risk for thunderstorms will end by the midnight hour. Temperatures will drop into the upper teens for most. 

The Week Ahead: This is where our weather gets the most intense, temperatures will hit a peak with values hitting the mid to upper 30's for a majority of our region. The low pressure system which sat stalled off to our west in saskatchewan will begin moving into our region bringing with it unsettled weather, on Monday the risk for severe thunderstorms will present itself in SW MB into west central MB up to Swan River with the threat that some of these may move into the eastern parts of Manitoba during the overnight timeframe including the interlakes. Overnight temperatures will only drop into the 20's and high teens, unusual for this time of year and we might break some record low temperatures as well. More unsettled weather with more rain and or severe thunderstorms is likely as we approach the second half of the week. 

I will have another blog on Monday Evening. :-)

Significant winter Storm Coming To Southern Manitoba

Hey everyone , back for a blog update and I unfortunately have some upsetting news. Southern Manitoba and we’ll basically all of our forecast region is basically under the gun for significant snowfall all thanks to a low pressure system moving into our region. The interesting part about this system is that it will have a sharp deformation zone (cut off line for heavy snowfall.) This system will mark the transition into a much cooler temperature trend but not before we get a decent winter storm . Find out more in this weeks weather update from Mike McGregor. 

Today (Above): Southern Manitoba get ready to rock and snow dance??? Anyways my horrible take on words again. As I  write this at 130PM the west part of southern Manitoba is now in the crosshairs of the low pressure system. This band of snow that has already moved into areas just north of highway 1 up to the parklands will gradually move east and southeast. There is some concern that this initial band may be strong enough to cause whiteout conditions and poor visibility for those travelling on the highways. Blizzard conditions are basically expected across an area from the Manitoba border to the interlakes, portage la prairie, east to Winnipeg and Grand beach areas. Highway1 and south may be impacted slightly by this storm but not until later in the day. Total snowfall accumulations by this evening will vary from between 5cm in Winnipeg to as much as 10-12cm just west of Brandon in a narrow swath. Temperatures this afternoon will sit in the low minus single digits for most, with areas along the American border sitting in the low single digits. 

Tonight: Oh boy this is when the weather will really get interesting, mother nature will likely be throwing a rave (in simple terms that means significant snowfall will be impacting a large zone of our forecast area.) I don’t really like saying the S word but regardless we have to talk about it. By about 5pm the heaviest snowfall will be covering areas from just along and north of highway 1. By about 8pm the heaviest of snowfall rates will be impacting areas along a swath from the Manitoba border east to Winnipeg and Grand Beach north to central Manitoba. Much of the south will be impacted by blowing snow and poor visibility tonight. If you are travelling consider taking it easy. Areas of the south among the American border up to about Highway two can expect to be at risk for freezing rain with ice pellets for a majority of the night. Part of the reason is this region will be in the warm sector of the low pressure system or near the warm front Generally areas from just south of Virden East to Glenboro than south towards pilot mound east to Winkler, and then Steinbach. Total snowfall accumulation for G the overnight timeframe are expected to be between 12 to 15cm for Brandon east to Winnipeg there could be snowfall amounts more than 15cm in localities overnight. Temperatures tonight will sit quite mild with overnight lows in the mid minus single digits. 

Friday (Above): Heavy snow will persist in the morning hours on Friday. There will be a weakening trend towards the latter half of the morning and early afternoon. There will still be periods of snow over the region, but expect much less accumulations on Friday then on Thursday night. There will still be areas with heavy bands of snow but only about 10-12cm is possible around Brandon accumulated in 12 hrs by 18Z, the rest of the day between 2 to 3cm is likely. Temperatures will be mild mainly in the mid minus single digits. -1 to -5C. For a broad swath of the south. 

Friday Night: A brief, but heavy burst of snowfall can be expected during the overnight timeframe as the remainder of the system moves through this band whoever will just be a brief but heavy cluster of snow, which will likely put our total accumulations up a little bit more significant snowfall, however, will not be likely for our region during Friday and Friday night. Another 1-5 cm is possible for a broad area of the south. I will have a summary of total snowfall just in this paragraph below. Temperatures on Friday night will be in the minus teens in Southwest Manitoba anywhere between -10 and -12° with windchill corresponding colder towards the -20°C range. Areas in the south east however will be spared this cold with temperatures and the minus upper single digits, with windchill values in the minus teens. 

Areas across the Manitoba see anywhere between 5 to 45 cm of snow. The highest accumulations are forecast once again in the riding mountain national Park area. Then as you go south and east and slightly north for areas just to the east Brandon to Winnipeg upwards of 20 to 30 cm of snow. Then south of this band as well up to Central Manitoba 5 to 15 cm of snow as possible. 

In regards to ice accumulations: Expect anywhere between one to 3 mm of ice buildup. There will also be a mixture of snow within the freezing rain along the American border. Power outages are possible especially within all areas of this winter storm event. 

Saturday and Sunday/Long Range: Much, weather conditions will be present over the weekend with temperatures a little bit cooler. The good news is that our overnight. Low temperatures will not drop into the minus teens, however windchill values may be in the minus teens for this weekend with overnight lows in the upper minus single digits. Our daytime highs in the lower minus single digits as the sun gets higher in the horizon. Snow will begin melting hopefully. 

The good news is this during the latter half of the week warmer Pacific air will begin filtering in across the Prairie provinces, it may take a couple of days for us to get there, but we will begin seeing high temperatures in the upper single digits between 3 to 6°C I strongly believe as the sun begins getting higher in the horizon. We will be start starting to see temperatures closer to 10° at some point as our normal value temperatures go up.