Happy New Year, Significant Winds Likely with Blizzard Conditions this weekend. Cooler weather arriving next week.

 Everyone welcome back to a new year in the weather scene hello everyone mike mcgregor here returning for the first post of 2025 and we've got some really concerning weather news on the horizon for southern sections in Manitoba looks like we're in for a bumpy 24 to 48 hours so fastening your seatbelts and get ready for an action packed blog with information on a blizzard which is poised to impact our region and I'll have comprehensive details on the upcoming major cold that is expected to impact our region this weekend into next week. I know it's winter folks but we'll get through this together again i'm got some interesting news about this weather blog and where it's headed at the end of this post.

Tonight: Southern sections of Manitoba will be in the warm sector of a low pressure system which will be impacting us tomorrow afternoon, Temperatures tonight will be warming for some sections with areas of southern Manitoba from southwest parts of the province into the Red River Valley and some sections of the Manitoba escarpments seeing warming temps by morning between minus three to zero degrees.

Tomorrow: Tomorrow morning specifically speaking Friday morning significant blizzard conditions will develop over the Red River valley including Winnipeg with forecast winds from 60 to 80 kilometers an hour with gusts possibly up to A100, there looks like there will be some light to moderate snowfall during the hours of 8:00 AM to 12:00 PM and then this time frame visibility will be drastically reduced or near impossible for those within warned regions for blizzard conditions. I have already spoke to Justin and there is no doubt in my mind that highway travel including city travel will be hazardous so do not be surprised if they have school bus cancellations within and outside of city limits in rural areas. The winds will be out of the N which will be ushering in a significantly colder air mass as we head into our weekend. The good thing is that these strong winds will likely abate by be late afternoon to early evening hours given the fact that the snowpack within the city limits is not fresh and in fact melted and frozen there may be less problems with visibility and more problems with loose objects or items getting tossed in the wind. Make sure to tie down loose items if possible. Temperatures in the afternoon will drop into the mid to upper minus teens with wind chills in the minus 20s and upper minus teens. Friday night: Calmer weather conditions will come in place as high pressure moves in however because this Arctic air mass will be settling in overnight lows will be in the minus 20s with the possibility of wind chills in the minus 30s frostbite is possible with exposed skin.

The Weekend: Calm weather conditions will persist into the weekend with temperatures over our region unfortunately reaching the mid to upper minus 20s with wind chill values in the mid to upper minus 30s areas that are in central Manitoba especially near dauphin up to the interleakes may see wind chills in the minus forties. This weather pattern will persist and Sunday night will be the coldest with windchill values in the minus 40's for much of our region. 

Next Week: I have some unfortunate news folks if you're looking for the milder weather conditions that we have been experiencing that's not gonna happen there is a higher likelihood that during the first half of the week into the middle part of the week where we will see our temperatures remain in the mid minus 20s in some areas maybe fortunate enough to see temperatures in the mid minus teens however wind chill values will be persistently stuck in the minus 30s and minus 40s this coming week during the overnight time frame that is when the colder temperatures will occur. There is a change in the pattern by Wednesday when we may be seeing some milder Pacific air filtering into our province just be glad we're not stuck in a full-on strong La Nina if we were we would be consistently experiencing these very cold temperatures.

Happy Holidays, warmth persists and above normal temperatures persisting.

 Hey everyone Mike McGregor here I hope you all are having a blessed and relaxing holiday season I am looking forwards to the new year I have a brief update on the extremely warmer than average temperatures we’re seeing , we are seeing temperature anomalies in the teens to twenty degrees above average . By the way . I’ll be back in the new year with a more extensive weather update based on latest model data we might be in for an interesting new year with a potential winter storm in the mean time I’ll be covering what’s ahead for the rest of the Christmas holidays . Much of southern parts of Manitoba will be experiencing above average temperatures and and overall a strong southerly flow will be present with a ridge of high pressure in eastern Canada allowing for this warmer than average temperature trend. 

(Above:) CFSV2 Temperature anomalies showing above average temperatures persisting over the next 7 days . 

Thursday: Temperatures on the day Thursday will be in the low minus single digits, areas of southeastern Manitoba will be the warmest with high values sitting in the zero to minus one degree range. Areas of southwestern Manitoba will be sitting in the mid minus single digits. Mostly cloudy skies are likely.

Thursday Night: Temperatures are also expected to remain warm for the night and I’m surprised to say this that areas of southeastern Manitoba will remain warm with values in the low minus single digits around zero however areas of the southwest will be likely be more in the lower minus teens. 

Friday: A warm and mostly cloudy day is likely on the day, there will be a disturbance moving through during the afternoon and evening with a chance of rain and freezing rain in areas of south central Manitoba. Small accumulations are likely with only 1 to 2mm. Temperatures on Friday are expected to soar into the low single digits in the southeast with areas of the southwest near the freezing mark. 

Friday Night: We will still be enveloped by this warm airmass, rain or snow is likely in the southeast part of Manitoba during the overnight. After that a slightly cooler airmass moves in with overnight lows in the minus single digits the chance of temperatures in the region of -4 to -7C is likely.

Saturday and Sunday: Warm weather conditions will persist with calmer and much sunnier conditions, although a little cooler overall we will still be be above average. Temperatures for this period will be in the low minus single digits, for day time highs and mid to high minus single digits near and below -10C during the overnights. 

For reference (low minus single digits are (-1 to -5C). 

Mid minus single digits are -5C to -10C, and the minus teens is -10 to -20C. 

Have a merry Christmas!!! 

Winter Storm Set To Impact Southern Manitoba during the day on Sunday

 Hey everyone it's Mike here writing a brief update on a significant winter storm that is likely to impact will be impacting southern Manitoba this weekend I'm a bit late to the party as I'm just getting over a really bad cold it's going around apparently some other people I know have it. What what I've got from other people over the last six to 12 hours is that there is some pretty hefty amounts of snowfall forecast over southern Manitoba this weekend and this system will be moving into the southern sections of the province by the early morning hours so if you're looking for details this is your place for that. If you're interested I also have something to say about this on the weather comedy report however I had no idea that we were gonna be getting a winter storm models showing next to nothing for Southern Manitoba over this weekend and now we're about to get something really interesting. 

Sunday: An area of low pressure will be moving into southern sections of the province during the morning hours ahead of the main stationary occluded front a large area of snow mixed with freezing rain will likely be impacting areas from the Saskatchewan Manitoba border all the way to the Portage La Prairie and Winkler regions. The heaviest snowfall starting at 6:00 AM in Western Manitoba and then 10am in the Red River valley areas. The thing is the heavy snow will likely be persisting in areas of Western Manitoba during the afternoon before tapering during the late afternoon whereas areas in the Red River valley will likely see snow persist well into the evening and possibly overnight time frame into Monday. I have some concerns that heavier snowfall bands visibility will be reduced to well below zero visibility if you have travel plans please consider leaving during the morning hours and not during the afternoon, also highways may likely be also closed. this system is gonna be feeding off some moisture from the Pacific as a Pacific flow will likely transition into a polar northerly flow behind this as cold air wraps in behind it.

The good thing about this is that I do not have to write nearly as long of a write-up the previous storm system we had had multiple types of precipitation however I'm going to get to the snowfall totals right now. Areas in western Manitoba will bear the brunt of the system with a general 10 to 20 centimeters of snow possible of the areas in the Red River valley and points south including the Interlakes all the way to the American border can expect a general 10 to 15 centimeters or so with possibility of areas receiving more than fifteen centimeters by the end of tomorrow night. The snow will be a heavy wet snow during the afternoon hours and Justin had mentioned that it will be a dryer snowfall during the overnight time frame into Monday regardless this is the first accumulating significant snowfall for areas of the eastern half of Manitoba. I have attached some photos below of the forecast snowfall and the forecast storm.

Temperatures for tonight's Will drop into the low minus single digits tomorrow afternoon a majority of Southern Manitoba will be basking in mild temperatures between minus one and minus 2 degrees Celsius for most. Areas along the American border however will likely see temperatures a degree or two above freezing or around the zero degree mark.

The Week Ahead:. Temperatures will be on a declining mark with the majority of southern sections in Manitoba likely seeing temperatures dipping into the minus single digits to the low minus teens towards the beginning and middle of next week.

Winter Storm Likely This Week, risk for ice buildup and power outages.

 Hey everyone Mike McGregor here I haven't written a weather blog update here in a while, but Southern sections of Manitoba will be in crosshairs of a significant low pressure system, It developed in the Great Plains of the United States ahead of it a large area of moisture will be streaming North from the Gulf of Mexico however this moisture is not as pronounced as the summer months with dew points mainly well below the 40 degrees Fahrenheit Mark. Moisture content in the atmosphere however will be quite substantial for this area of low pressure. This is a potentially concerning event for the next 24 to 48 hours with the likelihood of seeing everything from rain to freezing rain and snow with heavy snow and blowing snow. Areas in western Manitoba will be bearing the brunt of this system whereas areas in eastern Manitoba will be experiencing a potential ice storm not in freezing rain but in rain that freezes after it falls.

Tuesday: Southern Manitoba get ready!! Roll up the curtains you are going to be experiencing a brutal wake-up call to winter, and I am sorry that we have to bring this news to you. Anyway during the morning on Tuesday just to the south of the border a broad swath of rain will likely begin to envelop the red river valley and the eastern half of Manitoba. Colder air will be wrapping around the western half of Manitoba by the early afternoon hours, snow and a mix of freezing rain will begin during the morning in the extreme southwestern half of the province. As the low itself Begins to move into the province a large area of snow will begin to move into western sections in Manitoba which will bring Intervals of heavy snow mixed with moderate to lighter snowfall. This is going to be the region to watch for the heaviest accumulations into the day Wednesday. There is a likelihood that areas of Western Manitoba experience whiteout conditions with heavy wet snow, the good thing about this is that heavy-wet snow has a less of a wind profile, so there will be less risk of blowing snow and white-out visibility unless you're in a very heavy band of snow. If you are heading out on the highways I would suggest that you avoid highway travel during the afternoon and early evening hours into the overnight into Wednesday. The weather on Tuesday will be fairly meager compared to with the night on Tuesday with the regards to the winds. 

 Attention then turns to southeastern Manitoba during the later half of the day when a fairly heavy amount of rain will have fallen, what concerns me is that models is suggesting a fairly rapid transition over to below normal or below zero temperatures which will then put the risk for a either flash freeze or a gradual freeze process. Rainfall totals in the Red River valley including eastern Manitoba may be upwards between 15 to twenty-five millimeters of rain with the possibility of 30 millimeters by the end of the day. Now given the fact that temperatures will possibly drop below zero during the overnight especially according to the high resolution rapid refresh model this could put Winnipeg and all of southeastern Manitoba at risk for ice accretion and ice build up which will put strain on the power grid. On top of that wet snow will occur during the overnight time frame into Wednesday morning in the eastern part of Manitoba which will add more strain to the power lines if things begin to freeze by morning. Other weather models are suggesting that the transition over to a below zero temperatures will not occur until morning regardless I am still concerned about rain freezing on surfaces so if you're out in the highways on Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning please drive slowly. The reason I'm not calling this an ice storm is because the rain will not be freezing on contact. Attention then turns to southwestern Manitoba on the day Wednesday. Temperatures during the day on Tuesday will be in the lower single digits with areas in southwestern Manitoba on the cooler side between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius whereas areas of southeastern Manitoba will be seeing high temperatures between 3 and 6 degrees Celsius. Temperatures during the overnight time frame generally will be in the minus one to minus three degrees Celsius mark in areas of western Manitoba just to the west of Winnipeg and then areas from about just west of Winnipeg to the Ontario border will see overnight low temperatures between 0C and 3 degrees Celsius with the possibility of these locations seeing values closer to the zero or freezing mark by the morning hours.

Wednesday: OK, so Wednesday is one of those going to be one of those days that a lot of people wish didn't come until December however we are still going to be experiencing a burst of winter weather with all of our region forecast region seeing snowfall continue. Winds will likely gust from 60 to 70 kilometers an hour with extreme wind gusts up to 80KILOMETERS an hour in some locales in western parts of the province. The areas of western Manitoba I'm concerned about, accumulations by the end of the day may reach the 40 to 50 centimeter mark especially in areas by moose mountain Manitoba and the Riding Mountain National Park. Areas of Portage La Prairie into the Winkler regions will likely see upwards of 30 to 35 centimeters of snow areas to the east will drop significantly between 10 and 30 centimeters to as low as 5 centimeters. If you are in any of these regions please refer to the forecast maps which I have posted above this paragraph I have shared the RDPS the NAM and the H Triple R Model run. Unfortunately areas of eastern Manitoba will miss out on the heavy snowfall with accumulation between 5 and 10 centimeters with the possibility of more falling by the end of the day. There is going to be a sharp temperature contrast on the day Wednesday if you put a marker on the map from Thompson Manitoba yes in the north draw it SE through the middle of the interlakes, down to Areas just north of Winnipeg and then again curve SW you're looking at a good split where the western half of Manitoba is below zero during the day Wednesday and areas of Lake Winnipeg including Winnipeg City and the rest of eastern Manitoba seeing high temperatures either around zero or slightly above zero regardless it is going to be a cold and brutal reality check for temperatures on the day Wednesday. 

Wednesday night into Thursday the storm itself will start beginning to wind down with scattered flurries likely over Western Manitoba and mostly cloudy skies likely in areas of eastern Manitoba if you're looking for that break in the unsettled weather the second half of the week is looking like your go to for outside activity. Temperatures on Wednesday night into Thursday will more than likely drop and this is not surprising considering a burst of Arctic air will be moving into the region which will basically put our temperatures for daytime highs on Thursday anywhere between minus one and minus three, in areas that do not receive any snowfall you will likely sit a degree or two above zero which is normal for this time year.

Synopsis Western Manitoba including Brandon/Dauphin/Portage La Prairie: Rain and freezing rain possible during the overnight time frame, snow beginning during the morning snow at times heavy with near zero visibility as possible in white out conditions. Areas of the Manitoba Parklands May see enhanced snowfall rates due to the Manitoba Escarpment. Snow will persist well into Wednesday evening. Winds will also gust from sixty to eighty kilometers an hour at times. Expect the storm to wind down during the overnight time frame into Thursday. 

Synopsis Eastern Manitoba including Areas from Portage La Prairie east to the Manitoba Border: Snow at times heavy will begin in far western regions of this forecast zone during Tuesday morning. Rain will begin during the morning on Tuesday In regions east of Portage, rain will persist into the evening on Tuesday before transitioning to snow around at 9:00 PM to 12:00 AM. Temperatures will likely drop below freezing for some which will put a an increased risk on power lines and increase the possibility of power outages. If heavy wet snow falls on top of the already layer already added layer of ice roads will become treacharous and power utilities may be impacted. Snow will continue into the night on Wednesday before tapering early Thursday morning.

Wind Threat returns to Manitoba, calmer and seasonal weather will continue for the week ahead.

 Hello everyone welcome back to another addition of Southern Manitoba’s weather updates got some interesting weather along the way, including a significant wind event happening on the day Saturday as well as some information about some incredibly warm weather coming in for the latter half of the week next week. We’ll have some details on that. Our current upper pattern is driven by a strong, westerly flow and a component of occasional southerly flow.

This blog will be brief but informative southern sections of Manitoba on the day Saturday can expect to see a very mild air mass, temperatures are looking to soar into the low to mid teens, there will be a increased risk for wind gusts up to 100 kilometers an hour in southwestern Manitoba including areas of the escarpments into dauphin regions. The strong area of low pressure will likely develop over the prairies and it has already caused chaos in Western prairie provinces with extreme wind gusts. This area of low pressure will bring a swath of showers into southern sections in Manitoba during the afternoon and evening. Justin is already given details on where the strongest wins will happen however I encourage everyone to tie up their loose items and trampolines if you live in southeastern Manitoba the wind threat will not be as significant as in Western Manitoba with gusts up to 70km/h. A wind warning criteria has been met in western Manitoba so expect wind gusts over 90 kilometers an hour in that region. Winds will likely calm down during the overnight hours temperatures are likely to drop again into the single digits which is considered normal for this time of year. 

A warmer temperature pattern will persist this weekend, with temperatures in the teens and the lower single digits for lows. Sunny skies will persist into the week as well. Temperatures are likely to rebound by mid week into the end of the week with highs in the teens to low 20's. Overall a good week ahead with minimal precipitation.

Shower and Thunderstorm chances return to southern Manitoba, hot weather persists.

 Southern sections of Manitoba is likely going to experience some unsettled weather over the next few days, several waves of low pressure will move across the region starting tomorow afternoon. A strong trough over the western Usa coast will contribute to multiple areas of low pressure developing, the timing of the frontal systems into next week is still being figured out.

Friday afternoon and evening above: shower and thunderstorm chances return during the afternoon and evening models are disagreeing on the timing of the system HRRR is suggesting most precipitation arriving by afternoon whereas the NAM and RAP model suggest later on in the evening hours.

Tonight: Showers and Thunderstorms are likely during the overnight hours, as I write This blog article at ten oh nine PMA line of thunderstorms is moving into southwestern Manitoba this is is likely to expected to persist into the morning hours. There's a chance that this convection drifts into the Red River valley by the morning this would change our forecast for Friday's significantly. Regardless temperatures tonight in southern Manitoba will stay warm with overnight low values in the teens, there is a chance that some areas may sit around the twenty degree mark especially in areas that do not see precipitation tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected however based on current model data, there may be a marginally severe storm or two however a majority of the severe thunderstorms will occur stateside.

Friday: A slow moving cold front is forecast to move through our region on Friday ahead of it temperatures likely are gonna be sitting in the mid to upper 20s there is a possibility that areas in the Red River valley including Winnipeg Portage la Prairie and the white shell may see high temperatures approaching the thirty degree celsius mark. As this front moves through marginal instability of 500 to 1000 joules per kilogram are forecast to build into our region with increasing chances for shower and thunderstorms in the afternoon. This line is expected to reach the Red River valley by the early evening late afternoon hours. Current high resolution models did not pick up the strength of the thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba so based on all the information that I can gather there is a chance that some of these thunderstorms may in fact be severe Friday afternoon and evening. During Friday night thunderstorms or showers will clear the region by late evening or early midnight hours they should weaken significantly after sunset. Temperatures during the overnight time frame are expected to drop into the lower teens in southwestern Manitoba and mid to upper teens in southeastern Manitoba the dividing line is Lake Manitoba temperatures after Lake Manitoba towards the West will be on the cooler side.

Saturday: Calmer weather conditions are likely on the day Saturday as we sit on the east side of a stationary front, There is a chance in areas of southwestern Manitoba for some white showers during morning however looks like only areas of extreme southeastern Manitoba may be at risk for a couple of rumbles of Thunder during the afternoon and evening Temperatures on Saturday are forecast to be seasonal or slightly above seasonal with values in the mid 20s and very little in the way of humidity. No organized precipitation is forecast however for Saturday night into Sunday. The temperature is forecast on Sunday night are likely to be in the upper teens around our normal daytime high temperatures.

Sunday: Temperatures on the day Sunday are likely even to soar higher than earlier in the week what is interesting about this is that some areas may be about 10 to 12 degrees above normal there is a slight risk of some thunderstorms on the days Sunday with the heat forecast. Bottom line temperatures on Sunday across the board will be in the upper 20s with the possibility of some areas reaching 30 degrees Celsius dew point temperatures will remain in the mid to high teens so there will be some moisture and humidity on Sunday. Sunday Night: Another wave of instability is forecast to move through southern Manitoba on the night Sunday into Monday models are having a hard time figuring out if the cap will break with this if it does there will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms pinpointing where exactly they happen is difficult to determine at this point however there will be a possibility for some unsettled weather into Monday morning. Severe thunderstorms isolated in nature are possible as a frontal system lifts north.

Next Week: Increasing chances of precipitation look likely next week with multiple waves of low pressure moving through there is an increased risk of seeing higher levels of convective available potential energy as the heat also arrives with these systems. It Very well be our last chance at seeing any organized thunderstorm events bottom line we could be in for a lot of rain if models continue bringing in the Pacific and Gulf moisture at once as forecast. Temperatures will moderate after these fronts pass through. 

Severe Weather Threat Arrives

Good evening folks of Manitoba we have some severe weather to talk about right now. As I write this right now, we have a complex of storms in the lakes and western Manitoba. We are looking at a threat of severe weather likely for southern Manitoba tonight into afternoon tomorrow this will be a very interesting 24 to 48 hour. Time frame there will be a threat for this active weather to continue into, our day Monday will be brief and quick, but will touch on some very important points that you need to know for the rest of the weekend . 

(Environment Canadas Severe weather risk forecast above for the day on Sunday. )

Tonight extremely humid conditions are forecast for southern Manitoba as a tropical air mass moves in from the United States. Dewpoint temperatures will be rising between 15 to 22°C, already high levels of instability has been developing in southwestern Manitoba with 2,000JKG of CAPE. This area is primed for a threat of severe thunderstorms during the overnight time frame. Areas that I’m currently watching are the parklands in the Interlakes parts of Manitoba the RAP model is suggesting that during the overnight timeframe. A squall line will be building in the interlakes which will likely dip into the Winnipeg region shortly after midnight as it rises the west side of the ridge. If this does not happen clear conditions during the overnight in the south mainly during this timeframe, with the possibility of active weather arriving during the morning hours in western Manitoba. Tonight temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20’s with areas in western Manitoba if they get affected by storms will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Tomorrow (Above): Lingering convection will clear out if there is any , the focus will be in the interlake regions as well as the red river valley as this may be a significant squall there may be a risk for 100-110km/h winds during the morning to early afternoon hours. Looking over latest model data it appears that dew points of 20 to 25C, humidex values of 36-45C. In terms of instability as well 2000-3000 J per kilogram of cape will be available by the late afternoon hours in the red River Valley , there will be a threat for flooding rains, large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat. This is conditional however with a cap in place for most of the day. A cold front will be the trigger as it approaches most of the weather models are showing the highest risk being from portage la prairie to East towards the Ontario border. Environment Canada has majority of the area in a high risk area. 

Sunday Night: Severe potential will decrease as the front moves into northern Ontario, the threat for severe storms may persist into the evening before calming down, the tornado threat will likely fade by the 7pm timeframe.  Clearing skies are likely during the overnight. Temperatures will drop in the mid teens in the southeast with areas in the southwest in the lower teens. 

The week ahead temperatures it look like they are going to be returning to seasonal values with high temperatures on Monday, rising into the mid 20s. Much cooler weather is forecast however, as we approach the day on Tuesday were high temperatures will only reach the mid to high teens. Overnight lows during this timeframe will range between 10 to 18°C with cooler overnight lows likely on Tuesday unsettled weather is possible and thunderstorms possible.