Winter Storm Likely This Week, risk for ice buildup and power outages.

 Hey everyone Mike McGregor here I haven't written a weather blog update here in a while, but Southern sections of Manitoba will be in crosshairs of a significant low pressure system, It developed in the Great Plains of the United States ahead of it a large area of moisture will be streaming North from the Gulf of Mexico however this moisture is not as pronounced as the summer months with dew points mainly well below the 40 degrees Fahrenheit Mark. Moisture content in the atmosphere however will be quite substantial for this area of low pressure. This is a potentially concerning event for the next 24 to 48 hours with the likelihood of seeing everything from rain to freezing rain and snow with heavy snow and blowing snow. Areas in western Manitoba will be bearing the brunt of this system whereas areas in eastern Manitoba will be experiencing a potential ice storm not in freezing rain but in rain that freezes after it falls.

Tuesday: Southern Manitoba get ready!! Roll up the curtains you are going to be experiencing a brutal wake-up call to winter, and I am sorry that we have to bring this news to you. Anyway during the morning on Tuesday just to the south of the border a broad swath of rain will likely begin to envelop the red river valley and the eastern half of Manitoba. Colder air will be wrapping around the western half of Manitoba by the early afternoon hours, snow and a mix of freezing rain will begin during the morning in the extreme southwestern half of the province. As the low itself Begins to move into the province a large area of snow will begin to move into western sections in Manitoba which will bring Intervals of heavy snow mixed with moderate to lighter snowfall. This is going to be the region to watch for the heaviest accumulations into the day Wednesday. There is a likelihood that areas of Western Manitoba experience whiteout conditions with heavy wet snow, the good thing about this is that heavy-wet snow has a less of a wind profile, so there will be less risk of blowing snow and white-out visibility unless you're in a very heavy band of snow. If you are heading out on the highways I would suggest that you avoid highway travel during the afternoon and early evening hours into the overnight into Wednesday. The weather on Tuesday will be fairly meager compared to with the night on Tuesday with the regards to the winds. 

 Attention then turns to southeastern Manitoba during the later half of the day when a fairly heavy amount of rain will have fallen, what concerns me is that models is suggesting a fairly rapid transition over to below normal or below zero temperatures which will then put the risk for a either flash freeze or a gradual freeze process. Rainfall totals in the Red River valley including eastern Manitoba may be upwards between 15 to twenty-five millimeters of rain with the possibility of 30 millimeters by the end of the day. Now given the fact that temperatures will possibly drop below zero during the overnight especially according to the high resolution rapid refresh model this could put Winnipeg and all of southeastern Manitoba at risk for ice accretion and ice build up which will put strain on the power grid. On top of that wet snow will occur during the overnight time frame into Wednesday morning in the eastern part of Manitoba which will add more strain to the power lines if things begin to freeze by morning. Other weather models are suggesting that the transition over to a below zero temperatures will not occur until morning regardless I am still concerned about rain freezing on surfaces so if you're out in the highways on Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning please drive slowly. The reason I'm not calling this an ice storm is because the rain will not be freezing on contact. Attention then turns to southwestern Manitoba on the day Wednesday. Temperatures during the day on Tuesday will be in the lower single digits with areas in southwestern Manitoba on the cooler side between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius whereas areas of southeastern Manitoba will be seeing high temperatures between 3 and 6 degrees Celsius. Temperatures during the overnight time frame generally will be in the minus one to minus three degrees Celsius mark in areas of western Manitoba just to the west of Winnipeg and then areas from about just west of Winnipeg to the Ontario border will see overnight low temperatures between 0C and 3 degrees Celsius with the possibility of these locations seeing values closer to the zero or freezing mark by the morning hours.

Wednesday: OK, so Wednesday is one of those going to be one of those days that a lot of people wish didn't come until December however we are still going to be experiencing a burst of winter weather with all of our region forecast region seeing snowfall continue. Winds will likely gust from 60 to 70 kilometers an hour with extreme wind gusts up to 80KILOMETERS an hour in some locales in western parts of the province. The areas of western Manitoba I'm concerned about, accumulations by the end of the day may reach the 40 to 50 centimeter mark especially in areas by moose mountain Manitoba and the Riding Mountain National Park. Areas of Portage La Prairie into the Winkler regions will likely see upwards of 30 to 35 centimeters of snow areas to the east will drop significantly between 10 and 30 centimeters to as low as 5 centimeters. If you are in any of these regions please refer to the forecast maps which I have posted above this paragraph I have shared the RDPS the NAM and the H Triple R Model run. Unfortunately areas of eastern Manitoba will miss out on the heavy snowfall with accumulation between 5 and 10 centimeters with the possibility of more falling by the end of the day. There is going to be a sharp temperature contrast on the day Wednesday if you put a marker on the map from Thompson Manitoba yes in the north draw it SE through the middle of the interlakes, down to Areas just north of Winnipeg and then again curve SW you're looking at a good split where the western half of Manitoba is below zero during the day Wednesday and areas of Lake Winnipeg including Winnipeg City and the rest of eastern Manitoba seeing high temperatures either around zero or slightly above zero regardless it is going to be a cold and brutal reality check for temperatures on the day Wednesday. 

Wednesday night into Thursday the storm itself will start beginning to wind down with scattered flurries likely over Western Manitoba and mostly cloudy skies likely in areas of eastern Manitoba if you're looking for that break in the unsettled weather the second half of the week is looking like your go to for outside activity. Temperatures on Wednesday night into Thursday will more than likely drop and this is not surprising considering a burst of Arctic air will be moving into the region which will basically put our temperatures for daytime highs on Thursday anywhere between minus one and minus three, in areas that do not receive any snowfall you will likely sit a degree or two above zero which is normal for this time year.

Synopsis Western Manitoba including Brandon/Dauphin/Portage La Prairie: Rain and freezing rain possible during the overnight time frame, snow beginning during the morning snow at times heavy with near zero visibility as possible in white out conditions. Areas of the Manitoba Parklands May see enhanced snowfall rates due to the Manitoba Escarpment. Snow will persist well into Wednesday evening. Winds will also gust from sixty to eighty kilometers an hour at times. Expect the storm to wind down during the overnight time frame into Thursday. 

Synopsis Eastern Manitoba including Areas from Portage La Prairie east to the Manitoba Border: Snow at times heavy will begin in far western regions of this forecast zone during Tuesday morning. Rain will begin during the morning on Tuesday In regions east of Portage, rain will persist into the evening on Tuesday before transitioning to snow around at 9:00 PM to 12:00 AM. Temperatures will likely drop below freezing for some which will put a an increased risk on power lines and increase the possibility of power outages. If heavy wet snow falls on top of the already layer already added layer of ice roads will become treacharous and power utilities may be impacted. Snow will continue into the night on Wednesday before tapering early Thursday morning.

Wind Threat returns to Manitoba, calmer and seasonal weather will continue for the week ahead.

 Hello everyone welcome back to another addition of Southern Manitoba’s weather updates got some interesting weather along the way, including a significant wind event happening on the day Saturday as well as some information about some incredibly warm weather coming in for the latter half of the week next week. We’ll have some details on that. Our current upper pattern is driven by a strong, westerly flow and a component of occasional southerly flow.

This blog will be brief but informative southern sections of Manitoba on the day Saturday can expect to see a very mild air mass, temperatures are looking to soar into the low to mid teens, there will be a increased risk for wind gusts up to 100 kilometers an hour in southwestern Manitoba including areas of the escarpments into dauphin regions. The strong area of low pressure will likely develop over the prairies and it has already caused chaos in Western prairie provinces with extreme wind gusts. This area of low pressure will bring a swath of showers into southern sections in Manitoba during the afternoon and evening. Justin is already given details on where the strongest wins will happen however I encourage everyone to tie up their loose items and trampolines if you live in southeastern Manitoba the wind threat will not be as significant as in Western Manitoba with gusts up to 70km/h. A wind warning criteria has been met in western Manitoba so expect wind gusts over 90 kilometers an hour in that region. Winds will likely calm down during the overnight hours temperatures are likely to drop again into the single digits which is considered normal for this time of year. 

A warmer temperature pattern will persist this weekend, with temperatures in the teens and the lower single digits for lows. Sunny skies will persist into the week as well. Temperatures are likely to rebound by mid week into the end of the week with highs in the teens to low 20's. Overall a good week ahead with minimal precipitation.

Shower and Thunderstorm chances return to southern Manitoba, hot weather persists.

 Southern sections of Manitoba is likely going to experience some unsettled weather over the next few days, several waves of low pressure will move across the region starting tomorow afternoon. A strong trough over the western Usa coast will contribute to multiple areas of low pressure developing, the timing of the frontal systems into next week is still being figured out.

Friday afternoon and evening above: shower and thunderstorm chances return during the afternoon and evening models are disagreeing on the timing of the system HRRR is suggesting most precipitation arriving by afternoon whereas the NAM and RAP model suggest later on in the evening hours.

Tonight: Showers and Thunderstorms are likely during the overnight hours, as I write This blog article at ten oh nine PMA line of thunderstorms is moving into southwestern Manitoba this is is likely to expected to persist into the morning hours. There's a chance that this convection drifts into the Red River valley by the morning this would change our forecast for Friday's significantly. Regardless temperatures tonight in southern Manitoba will stay warm with overnight low values in the teens, there is a chance that some areas may sit around the twenty degree mark especially in areas that do not see precipitation tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected however based on current model data, there may be a marginally severe storm or two however a majority of the severe thunderstorms will occur stateside.

Friday: A slow moving cold front is forecast to move through our region on Friday ahead of it temperatures likely are gonna be sitting in the mid to upper 20s there is a possibility that areas in the Red River valley including Winnipeg Portage la Prairie and the white shell may see high temperatures approaching the thirty degree celsius mark. As this front moves through marginal instability of 500 to 1000 joules per kilogram are forecast to build into our region with increasing chances for shower and thunderstorms in the afternoon. This line is expected to reach the Red River valley by the early evening late afternoon hours. Current high resolution models did not pick up the strength of the thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba so based on all the information that I can gather there is a chance that some of these thunderstorms may in fact be severe Friday afternoon and evening. During Friday night thunderstorms or showers will clear the region by late evening or early midnight hours they should weaken significantly after sunset. Temperatures during the overnight time frame are expected to drop into the lower teens in southwestern Manitoba and mid to upper teens in southeastern Manitoba the dividing line is Lake Manitoba temperatures after Lake Manitoba towards the West will be on the cooler side.

Saturday: Calmer weather conditions are likely on the day Saturday as we sit on the east side of a stationary front, There is a chance in areas of southwestern Manitoba for some white showers during morning however looks like only areas of extreme southeastern Manitoba may be at risk for a couple of rumbles of Thunder during the afternoon and evening Temperatures on Saturday are forecast to be seasonal or slightly above seasonal with values in the mid 20s and very little in the way of humidity. No organized precipitation is forecast however for Saturday night into Sunday. The temperature is forecast on Sunday night are likely to be in the upper teens around our normal daytime high temperatures.

Sunday: Temperatures on the day Sunday are likely even to soar higher than earlier in the week what is interesting about this is that some areas may be about 10 to 12 degrees above normal there is a slight risk of some thunderstorms on the days Sunday with the heat forecast. Bottom line temperatures on Sunday across the board will be in the upper 20s with the possibility of some areas reaching 30 degrees Celsius dew point temperatures will remain in the mid to high teens so there will be some moisture and humidity on Sunday. Sunday Night: Another wave of instability is forecast to move through southern Manitoba on the night Sunday into Monday models are having a hard time figuring out if the cap will break with this if it does there will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms pinpointing where exactly they happen is difficult to determine at this point however there will be a possibility for some unsettled weather into Monday morning. Severe thunderstorms isolated in nature are possible as a frontal system lifts north.

Next Week: Increasing chances of precipitation look likely next week with multiple waves of low pressure moving through there is an increased risk of seeing higher levels of convective available potential energy as the heat also arrives with these systems. It Very well be our last chance at seeing any organized thunderstorm events bottom line we could be in for a lot of rain if models continue bringing in the Pacific and Gulf moisture at once as forecast. Temperatures will moderate after these fronts pass through. 

Severe Weather Threat Arrives

Good evening folks of Manitoba we have some severe weather to talk about right now. As I write this right now, we have a complex of storms in the lakes and western Manitoba. We are looking at a threat of severe weather likely for southern Manitoba tonight into afternoon tomorrow this will be a very interesting 24 to 48 hour. Time frame there will be a threat for this active weather to continue into, our day Monday will be brief and quick, but will touch on some very important points that you need to know for the rest of the weekend . 

(Environment Canadas Severe weather risk forecast above for the day on Sunday. )

Tonight extremely humid conditions are forecast for southern Manitoba as a tropical air mass moves in from the United States. Dewpoint temperatures will be rising between 15 to 22°C, already high levels of instability has been developing in southwestern Manitoba with 2,000JKG of CAPE. This area is primed for a threat of severe thunderstorms during the overnight time frame. Areas that I’m currently watching are the parklands in the Interlakes parts of Manitoba the RAP model is suggesting that during the overnight timeframe. A squall line will be building in the interlakes which will likely dip into the Winnipeg region shortly after midnight as it rises the west side of the ridge. If this does not happen clear conditions during the overnight in the south mainly during this timeframe, with the possibility of active weather arriving during the morning hours in western Manitoba. Tonight temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20’s with areas in western Manitoba if they get affected by storms will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Tomorrow (Above): Lingering convection will clear out if there is any , the focus will be in the interlake regions as well as the red river valley as this may be a significant squall there may be a risk for 100-110km/h winds during the morning to early afternoon hours. Looking over latest model data it appears that dew points of 20 to 25C, humidex values of 36-45C. In terms of instability as well 2000-3000 J per kilogram of cape will be available by the late afternoon hours in the red River Valley , there will be a threat for flooding rains, large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat. This is conditional however with a cap in place for most of the day. A cold front will be the trigger as it approaches most of the weather models are showing the highest risk being from portage la prairie to East towards the Ontario border. Environment Canada has majority of the area in a high risk area. 

Sunday Night: Severe potential will decrease as the front moves into northern Ontario, the threat for severe storms may persist into the evening before calming down, the tornado threat will likely fade by the 7pm timeframe.  Clearing skies are likely during the overnight. Temperatures will drop in the mid teens in the southeast with areas in the southwest in the lower teens. 

The week ahead temperatures it look like they are going to be returning to seasonal values with high temperatures on Monday, rising into the mid 20s. Much cooler weather is forecast however, as we approach the day on Tuesday were high temperatures will only reach the mid to high teens. Overnight lows during this timeframe will range between 10 to 18°C with cooler overnight lows likely on Tuesday unsettled weather is possible and thunderstorms possible.

Showers and Thunderstorm Threat return, severe weather possible in southwestern Manitoba.

 Good afternoon everyone good evening everyone I have a update on the weather for the next 24 to 48 hours this will be a brief but informative blog post. We have an interesting next couple of days in store weather wise, the last couple of weeks we have been in a cooler than average weather regime with calmer more stable weather thanks to a persistent northwesterly flow which is basically prevented us from experiencing any gulf moisture moving into the United States eventually coming up to Canada. This weather pattern is likely going to change as we head into the second half of the week. as a area of low pressure moves in from the west. 

The day Wednesday an area of low pressure will be sitting off to our S and North Dakota the main severe weather threat will remain in the Dakotas however on the northern side of the low pressure system during the early afternoon hours an area of convection may blossom in NW North Dakota. Based on what I'm seeing in model runs if we can get some level of clearing during the early afternoon hours especially in western Manitoba convection may be on the stronger side however given the limited instability that is forecast as well as very lack shear there could very well be just strong or subsevere thunderstorms. There is a possibility that the thunderstorms which develop in northwest North Dakota will drift into southwestern Manitoba by afternoon into the Red River valley by the evening hours. If the thunderstorms can hold off until later afternoon in North Dakota they may be on the stronger side as daytime heating will likely allow for more instability to build up if that does become the case we could be looking at isolated severe thunderstorms however because the models are agreeing on a afternoon solution I do not see severe thunderstorms being a widespread threat. Whether or not the thunderstorms are able to sustain themselves by the time they get into the valley is yet to be seen as most models show weakening trend by the time they enter the that region. Regardless temperatures for majority of southeastern Manitoba will be rising into the mid to high 20s areas that get rain during the afternoon will only rise into the low 20s. 

Overnight into the day on Thursday fairly unsettled weather will continue into areas of South Central and southeastern Manitoba with a possibility of seeing more thunderstorms and scattered showers again thunderstorms will likely be very weak with marginally small hail at times, the HRDPS model is suggesting a northward track of convection into the Red River valley by the morning hours will be interesting to see if this continues in future model trends bottom line there is an increase risk for thunderstorms in eastern Manitoba during the evening and overnight. Temperatures during the overnight will drop into the mid teens. 

Much calmer weather pattern is likely for the day on Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back into the region. Another day of unsettled weather looks likely for our region come the weekend as another area of low pressure builds in into the eastern Prairie provinces by Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures for the period between Wednesday and Saturday will be in the mid to high 20s with the exception of low 30s on the day Saturday and Sunday, overnight low temperatures will likely again remain in the mid to high teens.

Severe Weather Threat arriving this evening, break from heat and humidity on the way.

 Hello folks I have a update on a pretty substantial weather threat this afternoon and evening we are in for a wild ride not only today but later this week a large ridge of high pressure has built up over the central United States and as a result we are in the north side of this likely getting multiple areas of low pressure over the N top of this ridge which will result in multiple severe weather chances. We have details on what could be a very active evening across southern sections of Manitoba before a quieter weather pattern establishes itself. Have a look and get into the details of what could be a stormy end to our week on our Saturday today.

Today a hot and humid air mass will be sitting over southern sections in Manitoba including the city of Winnipeg areas that are in the zone will see high temperatures already for our day today with values in the upper 20s and low 30s, there will be an increased risk for a general area ahead of a cold front to bring severe weather potential this evening. Looking over the generalized convective available potential energy values this area will be seeing between 2000 to 4000 joules per kilogram of CAPE. Shear on the other hand that does look to be moderate with 20 to 30 knots of shear likely with a possibility of 40 knots of shear in some sections. What this means for our part of the province is that there will be a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms during the evening. A likelihood of initially discrete supercell thunderstorms. I'm looking at the general risk area right now at an area between Portage La Prairie towards the international border by Pilot Mound, with an extension East into the white shell N into east central Manitoba where Bisset west to the Interlakes which includes the city of Winnipeg. I have attached a couple of model suggesti, ons above these are only an idea of what could happen in the atmosphere, however when severe thunderstorms or if severe thunderstorms develop these thunderstorms be capable of bringing up hail to the size of golf balls or larger, 110 kilometer hour wind gusts, rainfall in excess of fifty millimeters an hour or more, and a isolated tornado threats. What I am looking over right now is current mesoscale analysis data, and that suggests right now that there is building instability coming in from the United States that will likely create a potential trigger as we head into the evening. This is nothing to get excited about this is just a suggestion as to what could happen this evening so be weather aware, if you were in any weather alerts later on tonight stay tuned to Environment Canada for information. As the discrete severe thunderstorms develop they will likely transpire into a squall line by the evening racing E into the white shell so if you are in the Falcon Lake or in the vicinity of Kenora or eastern Manitoba by Beausejour and Lac Du Bonnet. Bottom line these could be some powerful storms, stay safe!!

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to high teens with some areas of the southeast only dropping into the upper teens near 20 degrees Celsius, newer weather model runs are suggesting a second round of storms for extreme southeastern Manitoba during the overnight. If storms do move through that part of the province they will be severe with up to the potential for large hail and damaging winds however the tornado threat will be minimized in this environment given that the main instability will be off to the West during the evening. 

Sunday should be a much calmer day as we enter a northwesterly flow behind the low pressure system temperatures will be also beyond the cooler side with a little bit less humidity forecast, temperatures will rise into the upper twenties with, similar cooler temperatures likely overnight with lows dropping into the mid to upper teens. 

More unsettled weather is likely for the day on Monday-Wednesday with multiple chances at showers and thunderstorms. The details however are still needing to be worked out for these days, as we wait on new model data giving us a better idea of what to expect with these low pressure systems. 

Another threat of severe weather likely this evening into the overnight.

Good afternoon everyone I am going to do something a little bit different today. I know that you want a sneak peek at today’s weather and the weekend, however given the fact that we are dealing with a significant threat for severe thunderstorms in southern sections of Manitoba I will be writing a separate Outlook for these thunderstorms and the weekend forecast will be followed later in a separate blog. 

(One of the many weather models suggesting a severe weather event tonight in southern Manitoba if you guys are wondering the timing of this system the above photo suggests a super soldier to the east of Brandon by about 7 to 10P M with a squall line to the west of that. This is just one of the many possible outcomes for the event tonight with the cold front moving in.)

Today will be one of those days to watch for possibility of severe weather. An extremely hot and humid air mass will be sitting over southern sections of Manitoba this afternoon as already has reached temperatures into the upper 20s and low 30s. Humidx values have been reaching the upper 30s and low 40s as well dew point temperatures this afternoon have been rising steadily into the upper teens in low 20s as a result we are seeing general most unstable cape values between 1000 to 4000 joules per kilogram the highest level of sheer exist in southwestern Manitoba where super so complicated values at the moment are between 10 and 12. So it does look like moisture and instability is not a problem however on the side where sheer is it is a bit weaker as you move off to the east in eastern Manitoba. As a result tornadoes are not as likely in southeastern Manitoba as they are in southwestern Manitoba during the early development of thunderstorms. Only about 30 to 50 knots of sheer is likely and the lower end of shear is more than likely after sunset. As I write this at 4:50 PM the cold front is currently situated in western Manitoba right on the Saskatchewan Manitoba border along with a through ahead of it if this moves into the province later this afternoon it's the evening depending on when the cap roads there will be likely hood of widespread severe thunderstorms developing in the western half of Manitoba or eastern Saskatchewan. Models are currently all over the place which puts this forecast in a little bit of a fritz.

Based on what I am seeing in the models a area of isolated super cells are possible in areas of southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan during the early evening hours into the mid to late evening and then there is a possibility further east of some severe thunderstorms popping up over the Interlake and Red River valley regions west to Portage La Prairie. Further to the West an area of super cell thunderstorms is possible with up to tennis ball sized hail and wind gusts up to one hundred ten kilometres an hour and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. This will be in the high risk area as shown in the risk map above this one environment Canada has a high risk area of for the dauphin and Brandon area .After this period of thunderstorms, they will then likely organize into a complex of thunderstorms which will move east southeast through the evening into the overnight. There is a possibility that these thunderstorms may hold off until shortly after the 9 to 10:00 PM. That is the case the Red River valley and areas further east will not see these thunderstorms until twelve to three AM.. Based on environment Canada's forecast a slight risk of severe storms is likely with wind gusts up to 110 kilometres an hour in thunderstorms with up to three to six centimeter hail again this could also be lower given the fact that these are just estimates based on the instability that is available. 

Here are the agreeing weather models just to the below the bottom of this.

The only model that is disagreeing is the HRRR and  The NA MNEST model at 18Z where both show a storm complex forming over Winnipeg then a squall moving east into the area that was affected with weakened thunderstorms. I have decided not to show this as there is a strong cap over the Winnipeg region right now and I do not foresee any storms forming within this region before sunset as the model has suggested. This is one of those forecasts where I had to rely on the severe weather parameters to come up with a conclusion and based on what I have seen with severe weather behavior is that there is always super cell thunderstorms which develop and then there is usually a coinciding factor along cold front which is what is today's set up with the potential for a squall I have attached some photos above of the simulated radar imagery. This is only an example of what could happen not a hundred percent certain. Given the vast uncertainty and timing and location of fronts. Bottom line severe storms are likely in the environment currently. 

Temperatures for the evening into the overnight will likely drop behind this cold front if you do not experience thunderstorms temperatures may remain mild until the frontal passage happens during the overnight, I see wide ranging temperatures between fifteen and twenty two degrees celsius with the cooler temperature is likely over the Manitoba Lakes. A more detailed forecast will be on the way this evening for the outlook for Saturday and Sunday heading into the first half of the week I am just awaiting new model runs. Stay alert to any new weather alerts that get posted and also ensure that you have a way to receive alerts and you can also follow the weather centre in Manitoba where we will be posting information on severe weather that occurs.